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Community-Driven Relocation Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond Committee on Managed Retreat in the U.S. Gulf Coast Region Board on Environmental Change and Society Committee on Population Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Consensus Study Report Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Support for the work of the Board on Environmental Change and Society is also provided by a grant from the National Science Foundation (Award No. BCS-2055602). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27213 Cover image copyrighted by the Louisiana Sea Grant College Program. This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Community-Driven Relocation: Recommendations for the U.S. Gulf Coast Region and Beyond. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27213. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs
COMMITTEE ON MANAGED RETREAT IN THE U.S. GULF COAST REGION JANICE BARNES (Co-Chair), Founding and Managing Partner, Climate Adaptation Partners TRACIE T. SEMPIER (Co-Chair), Coastal Resilience Engagement Specialist, Mississippiâ Alabama Sea Grant Consortium KAYODE O. ATOBA, Associate Research Scientist, Institute for a Disaster Resilient Texas, Texas A&M University GARY S. BELKIN, Director, Billion Minds Project, Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health DEBRA M. BUTLER, Executive Director, American Society of Adaptation Professionals CRAIG E. COLTEN, Professor Emeritus, Louisiana State University KATHERINE J. CURTIS, Associate Director and Professor of Community and Environmental Sociology, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of WisconsinâMadison HARRIET FESTING (Resigned December 2022), Executive Director and Co-Founder, Anthropocene Alliance LYNN R. GOLDMAN, Michael and Lori Milken Dean and Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health, Milken Institute School of Public Health George Washington University E. BARRETT RISTROPH, Owner, Ristroph Law, Planning, and Research CATHERINE L. ROSS, Regentsâ Professor and Harry West Professor of City and Regional Planning, and Director, Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development, Georgia Institute of Technology GAVIN P. SMITH, Professor, Department of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, North Carolina State University NATALIE L. SNIDER, Science Integrator, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Sciences Integration and Application Network COURTNEY S. THOMAS TOBIN, Associate Professor of Community Health Sciences, Associate Dean for Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion, Fielding School of Public Health, and Faculty Associate, Ralph J. Bunche Center for African American Studies, University of California, Los Angeles Study Staff JOHN BEN SOILEAU, Study Director CHANDRA MIDDLETON, Co-Study Director (until December 2022) THOMAS F. THORNTON, Board Director GRACE BETTS, Research Associate SITARA RAHIAB, Senior Program Assistant HANNAH STEWART, Associate Program Officer (until October 2023) Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs v
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SOCIETY KRISTIE L. EBI (Chair), Professor, Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington BILAL M. AYYUB, Professor and Director, Center for Technology and Systems Management, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland EDUARDO S BRONDIZIO, Distinguished Professor of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington LISA DILLING, Associate Chief Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund KENNETH GILLINGHAM, Professor, Yale School of the Environment, Yale University MARY H. HAYDEN, Research Professor, Lyda Hill Institute for Human Resilience, University of Colorado LORI M. HUNTER, Professor of Sociology and Director, Population Research Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder STEPHEN H. LINDER, Professor and Vice Chair, Department of Management, Policy and Community Health; Director, Institute for Health Policy, UTHSC; Co-Director, Community Engagement Core, Gulf Coast Center for Precision Environmental Health GLEN M. MACDONALD, John Muir Memorial Chair and Distinguished Professor, University of California, Los Angeles GARY E. MACHLIS, Professor of Environmental Sustainability, College of Behavioral, Social and Health Sciences, Clemson University BENJAMIN PRESTON, Director, Senior Policy Researcher, Professor, The RAND Corporation JESSE RIBOT, Professor, American University, School of International Service JACKIE SCHAEFFER, Senior Project Manager, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium MADELINE SCHOMBURG, Director of Research, Energy Futures Initiative Foundation BENJAMIN KENNETH SOVACOOL, Professor of Earth and Environment, Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University ADELLE DAWN THOMAS, Senior Scientist, Climate Analytics, Senior Fellow, University of The Bahamas MICHAEL P. VANDENBERGH, Professor of Law, Vanderbilt University Law School CATHY L. WHITLOCK, Professor of Earth Sciences, Fellow of the Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University THOMAS F. THORNTON, Board Director Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs vi
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION ANNE R. PEBLEY (Chair), Bixby Chair, Distinguished Professor of Population Studies, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles EMILY M. AGREE, Research Professor, Department of Sociology, Krieger School of Arts & Sciences, Johns Hopkins University DEBORAH BALK, Professor and Associate Director, Institute for Demographic Research, Baruch School of Public Affairs, Baruch College of the City University of New York COURTNEY C. COILE, Professor of Economics, Wellesley College SONALDE DESAI, Distinguished University Professor, Professor and Centre Director, University of Maryland DANA A. GLEI, Senior Research Investigator, Georgetown University ROBERT A. HUMMER, Professor, Department of Sociology, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina SEEMA JAYACHANDRAN, Professor, Department of Economics, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University HEDWIG LEE, Professor of Sociology, Washington University in St. Louis TREVON D. LOGAN, Hazel C. Youngberg Trustees Distinguished Professor, Department of Economics, The Ohio State University JENNIFER J. MANLY, Professor, Department of Neurology and the Taub Institute for Research on Alzheimer's Disease and the Aging Brain, Columbia University Medical Center JENNA NOBLES, Professor and Associate Director, Department of Sociology, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison FERNANDO RIOSMENA, Assistant Professor, Institute of Behavioral Sci & Geography, University of Colorado at Boulder DAVID T. TAKEUCHI, Associate Dean for Faculty Excellence, School of Social Work, Center for the Study of Demography & Ecology, University of Washington MALAY MAJMUNDAR, Director Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs vii
Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: RENEE COLLINI, Gulf Center for Equitable Climate Resilience TISHA J. HOLMES, Florida State University MAUREEN LICHTVELD, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Health BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick MARLA K. NELSON, University of New Orleans JACQUALINE QATALIÃA SCHAEFFER, Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium LINDA SHI, Cornell University MARK J. VANLANDINGHAM, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine MARY C. WATERS, Harvard University Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report, nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by HOLLY REED, Queens College of the City University of New York, and CHRIS D. POLAND, Consulting Engineer, Canyon Lake, CA. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs viii
Contents Preface Acronyms and Abbreviations Summary 1 PART 1: INTRODUCING COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION 1 Introduction 15 RESPONSE TO THE CHARGE, 17 SCOPE OF GEOGRAPHY AND HAZARDS, 20 UNDERSTANDING MANAGED RETREAT, 21 Who Is Doing the Managing? 22 What Is the Scale of the Proposed Retreat? 23 What Is the Difference Between Managed Retreat and Relocation? 24 COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION, 24 Disaster Recovery Model versus Year-Round Support, 26 Alternatives to Relocation, 27 ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE, 28 Adaptation and Adaptive Governance, 28 Resilience and Adaptive Governance, 28 THE STUDY PROCESS, 29 Study Limitations, 30 REPORT STRUCTURE, 31 2 The Scale of the Threat 33 THE GULF COAST PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SCALE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, 33 Introduction, 33 Environmental Hazards, 34 Climate Change and Its Impacts, 39 The Causes and Impacts of Subsidence, 49 Industrial Impacts on Regional Flood Risks, 50 Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs ix
Summary: The Scale of Climate Change in the Gulf Coast Region, 52 THE SCALE OF THE CURRENT THREAT OF DISPLACEMENT, 52 SUMMARY, 57 CONCLUSIONS, 58 3 Examples of Relocation 59 INTRODUCTION, 59 A BRIEF HISTORY OF COMMUNITY RELOCATION EFFORTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 59 Early Cases, 60 The Great Midwest Floods of 1993 and FEMA-Supported Relocation, 61 BUYOUTS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND LESSONS, 63 Eminent Domain/Forced Relocations, 65 The Dutch Strategy of Bottom-Up, Integrated, and Holistic Flood Risk Reduction, 65 CASE STUDIES, 67 Hurricane Sandy in New York and New Jersey, 67 The Village of Newtok, Alaska, 71 Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, 74 Grantham, Australia: 2011 Flash Flood, 76 Tohoku, Japan: The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, 78 SUMMARY, 80 PART 2: UNDERSTANDING RELOCATION IN THE GULF REGION 4 Understanding the Gulf Region: Historical Context 81 INTRODUCTION, 81 ADAPTATION AND MOVEMENT, 82 Indigenous Peoples of the Region and European Contact, 83 ENSLAVEMENT, 86 MIGRATION, 87 HISTORICAL LEGACIES, 89 Political Disenfranchisement, 90 Economic Injustice, 90 Geographic Isolation and the Preservation of Culture, 91 SUMMARY, 94 CONCLUSIONS, 94 5 Current Realities of the Gulf Coast 95 INTRODUCTION, 95 Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs x
Gulf Coast Demographics, 96 Gulf Coast Economies and Associated Risks, 96 CLIMATE CHANGE AND RECENT/PROJECTED MIGRATION TOWARD AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, 98 In-Migration into the Gulf Coast Region and Gulf Coastal Shoreline Communities, 99 REASONS WHY PEOPLE LIVE ON THE GULF COAST, 101 Place Attachment, 102 Other Reasons to Remain in Place, 103 COMMUNITY PROFILES, 104 City of Saint Petersburg, Florida, Including Pinellas County, 104 Mobile County and Community of Bayou La Batre, Alabama, 110 Harrison County and Community of Turkey Creek, Mississippi, 115 Southeast Louisiana (Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes), 120 Port Arthur, Texas, 127 DATA AVAILABILITY ACROSS PROFILES, 132 SUMMARY, 133 CONCLUSIONS, 133 6 Sustaining Community Well-Being: Physical, Mental and Social Health 135 INTRODUCTION, 135 A HOLISTIC APPROACH TO WELL-BEING, 136 Capabilities for Subjective Well-Being and Capacities for Action, 141 PRE-EXISITING, CONTINUOUS, AND NEW IMPACTS ON WELL-BEING, 142 Pre-Existing Long-Term Environmental Health Issues for Gulf Coast Communities, 144 Forms of Mental Health Impacts from Climate Change and Climate-Induced Relocation, 145 Policy Implications, 147 ENHANCING RESILIENCE AND WELL-BEING THROUGH TASK SHARING AND NURTURE EFFECTS, 148 Task Sharing, 148 Nurture Effects, 150 SOCIAL CAPITAL, COMMUNITY COHESION, AND COLLECTIVE EFFICACY, 150 All Resources Matter, 151 PLACE ATTACHMENT, RELOCATION, AND WELL-BEING, 151 Place Attachment, Relocation, and Social Capital, 153 Place Attachment and Destination, 154 SUMMARY, 155 CONCLUSIONS, 155 Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xi
7 Communication, Participation, and Knowledge 157 INTRODUCTION, 157 Chapter Overview and Outline, 158 A LACK OF DISCUSSION ABOUT RELOCATION AND A DISTRUST IN GOVERNMENT, 159 Distrust of Government, 160 COMMUNICATION, 163 Communicating Relocation as an Option, 164 Transparency, 166 Language, Literacy, and Cultural Considerations, 167 RISK COMMUNICATION, 169 Mental Models for Risk Communication, 171 PARTICIPATION AND KNOWLEDGE, 172 Linking Social Capital to Participation and Civic Leadership, 172 Power Sharing and Participatory Decision Making: Who Decides? 174 Co-Production of Community-Driven Relocation, 175 Participatory Action Research and Practice, 175 Local and Indigenous Knowledge in Participatory Planning, 176 Community Knowledge and Protocols, 180 SUMMARY, 180 CONCLUSIONS, 181 8 Receiving and Originating Communities 183 INTRODUCTION, 183 RECEIVING COMMUNITIES, 184 Characteristics of Receiving Communities, 185 Identifying Suitable Receiving Areas, 186 Resource Needs for Receiving Communities, 189 ORIGINATING COMMUNITIES, 200 Thresholds, 200 Consolidation and Regionalization, 204 Decommissioning and Restoration, 205 Continuing Access, 206 ORIGINATING AND RECEIVING PARTNERSHIPS, 207 SUMMARY, 208 Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xii
CONCLUSIONS, 209 PART 3: FUNDING, POLICY, AND PLANNING 9 Landscape of Policy, Funding, and Planning 211 INTRODUCTION, 211 Nested Scales for Regional Planning, 213 Interrelationship of Funding, Policy, and Planning, 214 FEDERAL AGENCIES, AUTHORITIES, AND POLICIES, 215 Maze of Potential Assistance, 215 Disaster-Related Agencies, 217 Agencies Not Primarily Disaster Related, 222 Federal Nonfinancial Technical Assistance for Flood Events, 226 STATEWIDE RELOCATION AND PLANNING EFFORTS, 228 National Overview, 229 A Case Study of State Agencies and Buyouts: Texas, 231 REGIONAL COORDINATION IN THE GULF REGION, 233 The Need for and Lack of Regional Coordination, 233 Gulf-Wide and State Planning Agencies and Organizations, 234 LOCAL GOVERNMENTS AND COMMUNITIES, 238 Local Level Buyout Programs and Planning, 238 Case Study of Applying Land-Use Planning to Address Relocation: Norfolk, Virginia, 240 PRIVATE AND PUBLIC-PRIVATE FUNDING AND PROGRAMS, 242 AN OVERVIEW OF THE MULTI-LEVEL CHANGE NEEDED, 244 SUMMARY, 246 CONCLUSIONS, 246 10 Challenges and Opportunities for Policy 249 INTRODUCTION, 249 CHALLENGES OF THE EXISTING APPROACH, 250 Communication Challenges, 250 Flood Risk Responsibility, 252 The Role of Insurance, 253 Household Eligibility, 259 High-Level Analysis of Complexity, Time, and Post-Buyout Requirements, 261 Economic Justice, 266 OPPORTUNITIES FOR INNOVATION UNDER THE EXISTING LEGAL Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xiii
FRAMEWORK, 271 Knowledge Sharing and Institutional and Peer-to-Peer Learning, 271 Reducing Barriers to Obtaining Grants, 272 Addressing the Cost Effectiveness Criterion and Buyout Eligibility, 274 Additional Efforts to Increase Fairness in Buyouts, 275 LESSONS TO BE LEARNED FROM OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES, 276 Buyouts as Part of a National Policy Framework in New Zealand, 276 Threshold-Based Relocation Assistance in Fiji, 277 SUMMARY, 278 CONCLUSIONS, 278 11 Recommendations for Community-Driven Relocation Efforts in the Gulf Region and Beyond 281 CENTERING WELL-BEING, 282 DEVELOPING AND SUSTAINING LOCAL COLLABORATIONS, 283 Collaborative Planning, 285 Collaborative Regional Planning, 286 Collaborative Federal Planning, 287 Cross-sector Collaborations and Capacity Building, 287 Investing in Receiving Communities, 288 STRENGTHENING PREPARATIONS FOR COMMUNITY-DRIVEN RELOCATION, 289 Technical and Planning Assistance, 289 Taking Advantage of Innovative Strategies to Reduce Complexities and Rethink Priorities, 290 Ensuring Equity, 292 References 295 Appendices A Committee Members 359 B Public Info-Session Participants 365 C Community Profiles 369 D Key Terms 435 E Gulf Coast Timeline 439 Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xiv
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Boxes, Figures, and Tables BOXES 1-1 Statement of Task 1-2 Committee Outreach Activities 4-1 Community Testimonial: Elder Theresa Dardar, Pointe-au-Chien Indian Tribe, Lafourche/Terrebonne Parish 4-2 Community Testimonial: Bette Billiot, The United Houma Nation 5-1 Community Testimonial: Migrating Up the Bayou 5-2 Community Testimonial: Cascading ProblemsâHousing and Transportation 5-3 Community Testimonial: Sea Level Rise, Flooding, and Isolation 5-4 Community Testimonial: Climate-Related Health Concerns 5-5 Community Testimonial: Recent Environmental Disasters and Community Responses and 2021 Piney Point Wastewater Disaster 5-6 Community Testimonial: Cultural Preservation and Relocation 5-7 Community Testimonial: Impacts of Flooding Events and Pollution 5-8 Community Testimonial: Response to Pollution 5-9 Bayou La Batre 5-10 Community Testimonial: Factors Affecting Resilience in the Face of Flooding 5-11 Community Testimonial: Response to Air Pollution and Climate-Related Health Concerns 5-12 Community Testimonial: Environmental Justice 5-13 Community Spotlight: Come Hell or High Water: The Battle for Turkey Creek 5-14 Community Testimonial: Housing and Land Loss 5-15 Community Testimonial: Community Members Understand the Risks, but Still Plan to Stay 5-16 Community Testimonial: Response to Hurricanes 5-17 Community Testimonial: Locals Are Used to Flooding, but Hurricane Ida Brought Damaging Winds, Exposing Community Vulnerabilities 5-18 Community Testimonial: Planning for Protecting Culture Lags Behind Planning for Protecting Land 5-19 Community Testimonial: Cascading ProblemsâHousing and Transportation 5-20 Community Testimonial: Flooding Complications 5-21 Community Testimonial: Emissions-Related Health Concerns 5-22 Community Testimonial: Residents Have Few Choices 5-24 Community Testimonial: Residents have Few Choices 6-1 Workshop Testimonials: Mental Health 6-2 Community Testimonial: Displacement and Mental Health Concerns 6-3 Implications of Health Service Availability for Relocation and Displacement 6-4 Community Testimonial: Bette Billiot, The United Houma Nation Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xvi
6-5 Cherry Wilmore, Sherry Wilmore: Residents of Houma, Louisiana 7-1 Community Testimonial: Elder Chief Shirell Parfait-Dardar 7-2 Community Testimonials: Distrust in Government 7-3 Community Testimonials: Community-Led Decision Making and Engagement 7-4 Community Testimonials: Challenges for Effective Communication and Outreach 7-5 Community Testimonials: Lack of Resources and Equity 7-6 Community Testimonial: Lack of Communication 7-7 Community Testimonials: Self-Determination and Tribal Sovereignty 7-8 Case: âTraditional Ecological Knowledgeâ (TEK) Used to Aid Restoration Decisions 7-9 Case: Tribal Coastal Resilience Index (T-CRI) 8-1 Community Testimonials: Gentrification and the Cost of Living 8-2 Community Testimonials: Community Acceptance 8-3 Community Testimonials: Relocation for Whom? 9-1 Disconnects Among Federal and Other Governments FIGURES S-1 The primary focus of this report: The U.S. Gulf Coast Region 1-1 The primary focus of this report: The U.S. Gulf Coast Region 2-1 Gulf of Mexico region showing basic current patterns in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Loop Current 2-2 U.S. 2022 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters 2-3 Coastal Flood Risk Index for Tribal Communities 2-4 Coastal Hazard Risk Index for Gulf Coast Communities 2-5 Social Vulnerability Index Score for Gulf Coast Communities 2-6 Orleans Parish Days with maximum temperature above 95F 2-7 Projected change in daily, 20-year extreme precipitation 2-8 Fluvial (riverine) flood risk 2-9 Sea level rise at 1 foot 2-10 Gulf Coast Coastal Flood Hazard Composite 2-11 High tide flood events are significantly increasing around the U.S. 2-12 Visualizing high tide flooding with 12 inches of SLR in the Gulf 2-13 Projected storm surge in Louisiana 2-14 Gulf of Mexico subsidence rates 2-15 2 feet of sea level rise + vulnerable communities 2-16 Left Map: Change in population less than 1 m above MHHW, by county, along the southeastern U.S. Coast 1990â2020. Right Map: Percent of Black residents who live below 1 m, divided by percent of all residents who live below 1 m, by county, 2020 Census 3-1 Erosion on the coast of Newtok in 2020 3-2 The first few houses built in Mertarvik, the new site for Newtok Village Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xvii
3-3 View of Isle de Jean Charles facing southward 5-1 Among coastal regions, the Gulf of Mexico had the highest percentage of the workforce in construction industries and in natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 5-2 National Risk Index Pinellas County, FL 5-3 National Risk Index Mobile County, AL 5-4 National Risk Index Harrison County, MS 5-5 National Risk Index Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, Louisiana 5-6 National Risk Index Port Arthur, Texas 6-1 Conceptual diagram illustrating the exposure pathways by which climate change affects human health 6-2 The Center for Disease Control and Preventionâs (CDC) Framework, Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) 6-3 Capabilities leveraged in a task sharing approach 7-1 An example of the psychological, institutional, and practical barriers to relocation from environmentally high-risk areas 7-2 Bonding, bridging, and linking social capital 9-1 Blueprint for FEMA-funded buyouts 9-2 Sources of federal government support for relocation 9-3 Impact of advisory base flood elevations on elevation requirements during post disaster reconstruction of the Biloxi, Mississippi peninsula 9-4 A community plan for reinvestment and disinvestment 10-1 Percent change in insurance premiums during year one of Risk Rating 2.0 (current to risk based) C-1 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Pinellas County, Florida C-2 The prevalence of adults aged 18+ who reported fair or poor health in 2020 in St. Petersburg, Florida C-3 Percentages of people that live in the floodplain in Pinellas County, Florida C-4 Critical facilities in the 100-year floodplain in Pinellas County, Florida C-5 Risk analysis and poverty in St. Petersburg, Florida C-6 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for St. Petersburg, Florida compared to the state and nation C-7 The Environmental Justice Index (EJI) rank for Pinellas County, Florida. St Petersburg has areas with low to high environmental justice indexes C-8 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Mobile County, Alabama C-9 The prevalence of adults aged 18+ who reported fair or poor health in 2020 in Mobile County, Alabama C-10 Percentages of people that live in the floodplain in Mobile County, Alabama Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xviii
C-11 Critical facilities in the 100-year floodplain in Mobile County, Alabama C-12 Risk analysis and poverty in Mobile, Alabama C-13 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for Mobile County, Alabama compared to the state and nation C-14 The Environmental Justice Index (EJI) rank for Mobile County, Alabama C-15 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Turkey Creek, Mississippi C-16 The prevalence of adults aged 18+ who reported fair or poor health in 2020 in Harrison County, Mississippi C-17 Percentages of people that live in the floodplain in Harrison County, Mississippi C-18 Critical facilities in the 100-year floodplain in Harrison County, Mississippi C-19 Critical facilities prone to flooding in Harrison County, Mississippi C-20 People living below the poverty line in Harrison County, Mississippi C-21 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for Harrison County, Mississippi compared to the state and nation C-22 The Environmental Justice Index (EJI) rank for Harrison County, Mississippi C-23 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Lafourche Parish, Louisiana C-24 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana C-25 The prevalence of adults aged 18+ who reported fair or poor health in 2020 in Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, Louisiana C-26 Percentages of people that live in the floodplain in Lafourche Parish C-27 Critical facilities in the 100-year floodplain in Lafourche Parish C-28 Percentages of people that live in the floodplain in Terrebonne Parish C-29 Critical facilities in the 100-year floodplain in Terrebonne Parish C-30 Critical facilities prone to flooding in southeast Louisiana C-31 People living below the poverty line in southeast Louisiana C-32 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for Lafourche Parish, Louisiana compared to the state and nation C-33 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for Terrebonne Parish, Louisiana compared to the state and nation C-34 The Environmental Justice Index (EJI)rank for Lafourche Parish (left) and Terrebonne Parish (right), Louisiana C-35 The 2020 national overall Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) for Jefferson County, Texas C-36 The prevalence of adults aged 18+ who reported fair or poor health in 2020 in Port Arthur, Texas C-37 Population in Jefferson County, Texas at risk from sea level rise C-38 Natural landscapes exposed to inundation in Jefferson County, Texas C-39 Critical facilities prone to flooding in Port Arthur, Texas C-40 People living below the poverty line in Port Arthur, Texas C-41 Environmental Justice Index (EJI) for Port Arthur, Texas compared to the state and nation C-42 Flood risk and hazardous waste facilities/infrastructure in Port Arthur, Texas Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xix
C-43 The Environmental Justice Index (EJI) rank for Jefferson County, Texas. Port Arthur has areas with âmoderate to highâ environmental justice indexes E-1 Gulf Coast timeline TABLES 2-1 Days Over 95F (Historic and Projected) Across the Gulf Coast 2-2 Gulf Coast State Homes at Risk of Chronic Inundation In The Next 30 Years (I.E., By 2045) 4-1 Enslaved Populations in Gulf States, 1860 5-1 2010 Population for Shoreline Counties Along the Gulf Coast and Percentage of Population Change Between 1970 And 2010 8-1 Poverty Rates of Coastal Resettlement Destinations Within 75â100 Miles from The Coast Of Alabama, Mississippi, And Louisiana, By County, 2020 National And State C-1 Population Sociodemographics C-2 Hurricanes Impacting St. Petersburg, Florida That Led to Federal Disaster Declarations Since 2000. C-3 Hurricanes Impacting Mobile County, Alabama That Led to Federal Disaster Declarations Since 2000. C-4 Hurricanes Impacting Harrison County, Mississippi That Led to Federal Disaster Declarations Since 2000. C-5 Hurricanes Impacting Lafourche and Terrebonne Parishes, Louisiana That Led to Federal Disaster Declarations Since 2000. C-6 Hurricanes Impacting Port Arthur, Texas That Led to Federal Disaster Declarations Since 2000. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xx
Preface With increasing numbers of climate-related disaster events in Gulf Coast states (232 occurring between 1980 and 2023, with twice as many per year from 2018â2022 as in the previous years) and extraordinary human and capital impacts (deaths of 10,838 people and costs on average of 1 billion dollars per disaster from 1980 to as of July 11, 2023), the consideration of how to reduce such impact must grapple with the question of whether and how to relocate people and assets out of harmâs way. Frequently termed âmanaged retreat,â the topic of relocation receives scant attention in post-disaster recovery, when building back is prioritized, even less attention in pre-disaster mitigation planning, and almost no attention from regional planning organizations. This is not surprising, as the nation currently lacks consistent policy or programmatic guidance to enable communities and their governing bodies to tackle the uncomfortable issue of retreating from the coasts. Recognizing the need for guidance, the Gulf Research Program (GRP) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine empaneled a committee of experts to study the issue of Managed Retreat in the Gulf Coast. The committee approached the study by reviewing the history of the region, by examining the science that characterizes the regionâs future and helps to explain its disaster record, and by considering the overall impact of chronic stressors on community well-being. This study offers new guidance meant to improve our understanding of the intersectionality of community well-being, planning processes, government policy, and implementation funding. Managed retreat remains an emerging area of research with few practical examples to date. Of the examples that exist, many lack coordination, large scale support, or buy-in from the community. Important to understanding this context, the task challenged the committee to tackle not only the issues surrounding managed retreat but also the very language of managed retreat. Through the study process, this term evolved to become âcommunity-driven relocation.â We appreciate the range of perspectives, the depth of knowledge, and the ongoing efforts of members of the committee whose constructive debates, meaningful challenges to the very systems propagating disadvantage, and the public health construct of well-being, broadened the process to one of recognizing the need for transformative relationships between disciplines as much as transformations in participatory planning, funding, and regional collaboration. Thank you to the members of the committee. The National Academies hosted workshops with frontline community members and municipal leaders from each of the Gulf Coast states whose stories echoed so many others in telling of the types of chronic stress that stems from the repetitive experiences of such disasters. We are grateful to those who participated in the workshops, sharing their lived experiences and raising questions to help guide the committee in the consensus study. We also extend heartfelt thanks to all workshop participants. We encourage each of you to continue to share those stories as your powerful voices help others to better understand the essence of the challenge. Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xxi
With such challenging topics and range of activities, the committee relied heavily on the expertise of the National Academies staff who guided the process according to the National Academies standards and offered resources throughout the study to help the committee better characterize the issues for various audiences. Thanks to the National Academies staff whose commitment to this study and whose patience enabled the committee to tackle such a complex issue. Community-driven relocation across the Gulf Coast is difficult to envision, even as sea level rise and subsidence combine to make the Gulf one of the most vulnerable areas in the nation. We thank the Gulf Research Program (GRP) for investing in such a challenging topic, and in doing so, catalyzing discussions that may in turn reduce risks while encouraging new collaborations and offering hopeful futures. We wish to express our deep appreciation to the members of the committee for their diligent and dedicated contributions to developing this report. The diverse expertise and experience offered by the members of the committee were indispensable to the formulation of the report. We also wish to thank, on behalf of the entire committee, the staff of the National Academies, whose expertise and skill were essential to our meeting the charge from our sponsor. Finally, we want to thank the GRP for their generous support and sponsorship of this study. Janice Barnes, Co-Chair Tracie Sempier, Co-Chair Committee on Managed Retreat in the U.S. Gulf Coast Region Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xxii
Acronyms and Abbreviations BIA Bureau of Indian Affairs BRIC Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities CDBG Community Block Development Grant CDBG-DR CDBG-Disaster Recovery Program CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CERCLA Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act CPRA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority DOI Department of the Interior DOT Department of Transportation EPA Environmental Protection Agency FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency FMA Flood Mitigation Assistance Grant Program GCCDS Gulf Coast Community Design Studio GLO Texas General Land Office GOMA Gulf of Mexico Alliance GRP Gulf Research Program GRPC Mississippiâs Gulf Regional Planning Commission HCCSD Harris County Community Services department HCFCD Harris County Flood Control District HHS Department of Health and Human Services HMGP Hazard Mitigation Grant Program HUD Department of Housing and Urban Development IIJA Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization NACo National Association of Counties NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NGO Non-Governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NORPC New Orleans Regional Planning Commission NRCS Natural Resources Conservation Service RAISE Rebuilding American Infrastructure with Sustainability and Equity RMP Risk Management Program RPC Regional Planning Commission Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xxiii
SARF State Acquisition and Relocation Fund SARPC South Alabama Regional Planning Commission SBP St. Bernard Project STORM Safeguarding Tomorrow through On-Going Risk Mitigation TBRPC Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council TMC Texas Medical Center TPC Transportation Policy Committee TXGLO Texas General Land Office TWDB Texas Water Development Board USACE US Army Corps of Engineers VIMS Virginia Institute for Marine Science WHO World Health Organization WRDA Water Resources Development Act Prepublication copy â uncorrected proofs xxiv
