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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Research and Engagement Process." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Collective and Individual Actions to Envision and Realize the Next Era of America’s Transportation Infrastructure: Phase 1. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27263.
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transportation; the trends, uncertainties, and potential disruptions A Look Back: Past Evolution and Transformation shaping the future of transportation; and engagement with state in Transportation DOT leaders and thought leaders in other industries. A visioning process can be informed by a look back at how a region • The last section documents the vision framework and initial imple- or industry has evolved in the past. The intent is not to measure mentation concepts developed and refined through this process. historic growth or changes and project those patterns to continue. Rather, it is to understand the broad trends and milestone events that have set the stage for where a region or industry is today, cel- RESEARCH AND ENGAGEMENT PROCESS ebrate the progress already made, and identify lessons from prior This chapter documents the research and engagement effort periods of change. used to develop the vision framework and initial implementation The research team analyzed the prior evolution of transporta- recommendations. tion in the United States, with emphasis on the period since the late 1800s, when the motor vehicle began to emerge as a dominant mode of transport. Table 3 summarizes four distinct “eras” of trans- Development of the Visioning Process portation, which can be defined in terms of a combination of public There is no formal, standard process for conducting a visioning pro- sector infrastructure investment and policy intersecting with private cess, particularly at the national, broad-based scale required for this enterprise developments in technology and services and changing project. For this reason, the research team began by reviewing recent community values. Each of these four areas includes distinct “waves” long-range visioning processes focused on or related to transporta- reflecting evolving finance strategies, policy targets, program focus, tion to identify noteworthy practices that could be applied to this and governance models. project. Table 1 documents the sources of information consulted by The first two eras involved creating road and highway infrastruc- the research team for this review. ture to accommodate the development of “automobility,” including Table 2 summarizes the noteworthy practices identified through a national network with an appropriate system of governance. The this research that were used as the basis for the research and engage- third era involved adjusting a maturing surface transportation system ment plan. Appendix A includes the summary of this early research to accommodate a broader range of transportation needs, values, and how it was applied to the project. and uses. The fourth (and current) era reflects adapting the existing TABLE 1 Sources of Information on Noteworthy Practices in Effective Visioning Processes SOURCE EXAMPLES Presentations to the NCHRP Tony Carvajal, president, Carvajal Consulting and Management; executive vice president, Florida TaxWatch; Panel by futurists and leaders former executive vice president, Florida Chamber Foundation; project director, “Florida 2030” statewide of long-range visioning visioning initiative. initiatives Brian Collins, founder and president, The Brainstorm Institute; former Walt Disney Imagineer; futurist working with public- and private-sector organizations. Lee Moreau, founder, Other Tomorrows; visiting lecturer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; futurist working with public- and private-sector organizations including the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, Southwest Airlines, and Caliber.com. Personal interviews by Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida. members of the research Commission for the Future of Transportation in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. team with leaders of other Envision Utah. long-range visioning “Heartland 2060,” a 50-year shared visioning process for 7 counties in rural south-central Florida. activities “How Shall We Grow?,” a 50-year shared visioning process for 7 counties and 86 municipalities around Orlando. Synthesis of visioning and Review of more than 3 dozen scenario planning processes, including examples led by state DOTs, scenario planning initiatives metropolitan planning organizations, and local governments, as well as outside of the transportation related to transportation sector. Review of available literature Prior Transportation Research Board (TRB)/NCHRP research, including the NCHRP Report 750 Foresight Series. Published scenario planning/visioning guidance and examples from national organizations including the American Planning Association and Urban Land Institute. Published studies of future trends and disruptions by national and global organizations, such as the National Intelligence Council and the World Economic Forum. Published information on private-sector visioning activities led by organizations such as Royal Dutch Shell and GoogleX. 3

TABLE 2 Noteworthy Practices in Effective Visioning Processes APPLICATION TO NCHRP 20-24 (138) PRACTICE DESCRIPTION VISIONING PROCESS 1. Bring the right Start with a broad set of participants from the public, Extensive engagement with state DOT leaders, people to the private, and civic sectors. including emerging leaders from several DOTs. table. Include thought leaders and provocateurs to encourage Extensive engagement with thought leaders and out-of-the-box thinking. subject matter experts from other industries, including Include emerging leaders, younger professionals, or representatives of traditionally underrepresented students to get input from the next generation. groups. Include groups traditionally not engaged in planning Vision Retreat with more than 50 participants from activities to understand their perspectives and challenge state DOTs and partner organizations. long-standing practices. 2. Ask the right Start with broad questions to expand perspectives and Initial focus on “What if?” and “Could we?” questions. questions. gather ideas: “Why?,” “What if?,” “Can we?,” and “What could we become?” Later shift to specific questions to narrow focus and prepare for implementation: “What now?,” “How could we?,” and “What would it take?” 3. Diagnose your Look back: Understand the trends and events that have Look back: Review of prior eras in transportation, situation. shaped the past and present and identify lessons from including previous game-changing events. prior periods of change. Look forward: Synthesis of trends, uncertainties, and Look forward: Analyze a broad set of trends to identify potential disruptions that could shape the future of patterns of human behaviors, attitudes, and broader transportation. Development of a scenario framework environmental forces; sort trends by impact, degree of for understanding how these trends could interact to certainty, and need for action. Use scenarios to explore shape the future of transportation. how trends interact to form a potential future. Look inside: Interviews with current and emerging Look inside: Engage with current and emerging leaders state DOT leaders; engagement with AASHTO Board to understand their thinking about the future of their of Directors and regional AASHTO boards. organization/industry. Look outside: Synthesis of available information on Look outside: Document customer values and preferences community values and customer needs; engagement to identify the focal points of a vision and the vocabulary with representatives of traditionally underrepresented that will resonate. Use examples from other regions, groups. nations, or industries to take a fresh look at your situation. 4. Set bold goals. Set aspirational visions and goals—instead of thinking Development of aspirational goals with a 10-year 10% better, ask how we can be 10x better. horizon. Do not settle for incremental progress; ask: “Why not us?,” “Could we go further?,” or “Who would we be leaving behind?” Build a picture of the desired end state—where we want to be in 10, 20, or 50 years. 5. Identify “Plan from the future”—use backcasting to identify the Development of seven potential “moonshot” breakthrough actions we need today or in the near future to move concepts for breakthrough action by state DOTs and ideas. toward the vision. other partners. Start with breakthrough and disruptive ideas—ask “Why not?” Hold discussion of implementation until later. Focus on being bold, not simply on being big. Dozens of smaller, bold actions can add up to more impact than a single large one. Create a culture of risk-taking; when risks do not work out, fail forward and move on to the next opportunity. 6. Communicate Use evocative language and storytelling to inspire action. Emphasis on storytelling and evocative language and boldly. Communicate how the vision impacts the daily lives of our images to communicate the vision. customers and the role of every employee and partner in accomplishing the vision. 4

TABLE 3 Prior Eras in the Development of the U.S. Surface Transportation System ERA WAVES Automobility—1890–1956 1890–1915: The New Power Wave—increasing paving of roads to support bicycling; expansion of electric streetcar and intercity railroads; increasing size and density of major cities; increasing adoption of the gas-powered automobile, providing a new level of mobility. 1915–1956: The Automobility Wave—increasing population of the automobile; early state and road building efforts that were uneven, disparate, and often disconnected; modest post–World War I federal program focused on post roads and farm-to-market links; development of parkways to support recreational driving and use of tolls to support roads, bridges, and tunnels in some states. Building the National Highway 1956–1965: The National Network Wave—rapid growth in the post–World War II economy and Network—1956–1975 increasing suburbanization with increased dependence on the automobile; enactment of the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act and initial development of the Interstate Highway System as a state-federal partnership; federal legislation requiring the designation of metropolitan planning organizations (MPO) for urbanized areas with a population greater than 50,000. 1965–1976: The Reform Wave—initial recognition of the negative consequences of Interstate Highway construction, including disruption and displacement of urban (often minority) neighborhoods and impacts on environmental and community resources; beginning of changes in highway policy and processes to include more inclusive and systematic planning, requirements to consider community and environmental impacts, and consideration of other modes; enactment of the National Environmental Protection Act; creation of the multimodal U.S. DOT. Redefining a Multimodal 1975–1990: The Multimodal Wave—expansion of the Urban Mass Transportation Administration and System—1975–2005 federal funding for transit; institutionalization of multimodal planning; expanded roles for MPOs and local governments with greater funding flexibility. 1990–2005: The “TEA” Wave—shift in program emphasis from system development to system maintenance and operations; increasing focus on safety; series of federal legislation that further shifted decision-making to the state and metropolitan levels and provided greater flexibility for aligning programs to regional and local needs. Aspiration Meets 2005–2015: The New Technology Wave—continued devolution of funding and program responsibilities Reality—2005–present to the state and local level; increasing emphasis on performance and asset management and innovation in funding and project delivery; new emphasis on intelligent vehicles and highways and a more integrated freight and intermodal network. 2015–Present: The Sustainability and Equity Wave—focus on using expanded resources to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic shock and respond to the backlog of preservation and investment needs across all modes; enactment of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act with a significant increase in federal funding; increasing emphasis on resilience, sustainability, and equity. surface transportation system to new technologies and a broader The research also considered changes in transportation services view of the role of surface transportation and social integration— through private-sector leadership—for example, new air service opening the potential for consideration of new and expanded mis- models pioneered by Southwest Airlines and other low-cost carriers, sions for the nation’s surface transportation system. Appendix B the rapid growth in transportation networking companies, and the includes the full text of the paper summarizing these eras. advent of commercial space transportation with reusable launch vehi- The research also documented examples of transformational cles developed and managed by private-sector firms. The research events that reshaped the U.S. transportation system, including the also considered the transformation of other infrastructure and con- “golden spike” marking the completion of the first transcontinental sumer services industries—from the development of Walt Disney railroad in 1869; the completion of the Panama Canal in 1914; the World 50 years ago to how private companies are transforming the creation of the Interstate Highway System in 1956; and the first moon renewable energy sector, broadband and high-speed data commu- landing in 1969. Each of these moonshots reflected bold vision, nications, and e-commerce today. These transformations often were strong leadership, and the collaboration of many partners over a characterized by common practices that are relevant to state DOTs short period. Moreover, in each case, transportation was not the end, and other public agencies looking to the future: but the means to accomplish national goals such as transcontinental • A focus on understanding, responding to, and where possible, development and connectivity (the golden spike), global trade shaping customer needs. growth (the Panama Canal), national defense and interstate com- merce (the Interstate Highway System), and demonstrated superior- • A bold vision supported by strong leadership and commitment ity in the Cold War (the moon landing). throughout the organization. 5

• The ingenuity to leverage emerging technologies to advance for the United States. E-commerce’s share of U.S. retail sales new business models and customer delivery options. increased from about 4 percent in 2010 to just over 10 percent in 2019, before surging to 16.6  percent during the pandemic • Strong collaboration with internal and external partners to accom- (U.S. Census Bureau, 2021). Nearshoring, automation, and produc- plish change in a short period of time. tivity gains could enable the United States to regain its leadership role in global manufacturing and logistics. A Look Ahead: Trends, Uncertainties, and Potential • Regions and megaregions. During the decade between 2010 Disruptions Shaping the Future of Transportation and 2020, the United States grew at its slowest rate since the The research documented long-term trends to stimulate thinking 1930s. Less than half of the nation’s counties gained popula- about the future. The approach considered not only typical sets of tion. However, four out of five metropolitan areas added pop- historic data and forecasts that are used in long-range planning, such ulation, including the 10 largest metropolitan areas. Growth was as population and economic growth, but also changing patterns of concentrated in smaller cities and the suburban areas of larger human behaviors and attitudes and broader demographic, economic, metropolitan areas (U.S. Census Bureau, 2020). This pattern is and environmental forces. The intent was to paint a broad picture of anticipated to continue, with around 10 to 12 “megaregions” the potential changes, uncertainties, and disruptions that could impact accounting for the majority of the U.S. population and economic the demand for moving people and goods, the options available to growth during the next few decades. move people and goods, and the capacity of transportation agencies to support these needs. • Communities. Americans are rethinking many aspects of how The research considered trends in 10 areas, combining a synthesis they live, from what they consume and the types of spaces they of available data and forecasts with emerging possibilities that may inhabit to the social structures they build in their communities. not be quantifiable. To encourage broad thinking about the future Housing has become increasingly unaffordable, prompting many of transportation, the trends research began with a broad scan of people to explore new living arrangements. Remote work is factors external to transportation and asked the question of how reshaping where Americans spend their workday and the role of these trends could influence the future of transportation. traditional central business districts and other gathering spaces. The 10 key categories of trends and key findings are summarized Many people are more interested in investing in their communi- below. Appendix C provides detailed factsheets in these 10 areas, ties through accessible mixed-use design, social networks, and based on data and forecasts as of March 2022. ethical consumption, with implications for the built environment. • Demographics. Although the pace of growth is slowing, the U.S. • Technology. The pace of technological change continues to population is expected to continue to exceed most industrialized accelerate. Automation/artificial intelligence, digitization, con- nations during the next decade—with a wide variation in rates nectivity and electrification, and new forms of energy are changing among states. The U.S. population is expected to achieve several how we live, work, interact, and move today—with more tech- major demographic turning points: immigration may exceed nologies just over the horizon. Many of these technologies are natural population growth (the difference between the number of part of what is known as the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which live births and deaths) by 2030, the number of older adults may may be characterized by the fusion of digital and physical (even exceed the number of children for the first time in U.S. history by biological) realms (World Economic Forum, 2016). the mid-2030s, and no single racial group may account for the • Energy. The technology revolution extends to the energy sector. majority of U.S. residents by the mid-2040s (U.S. Census Bureau, Under current policy and technology trends, increasing popu- 2017). Minor adjustments are anticipated in the next forecast lation and economic growth would increase global energy based on the final 2020 Census data. consumption by about 50  percent through 2050 (U.S. Energy • Prosperity. Economic growth and prosperity have not been spread Information Administration, 2021). Decreasing prices are posi- evenly across the United States. About 13 percent of households tioning renewable energy as a primary source for new electricity earn incomes below the poverty line and an additional 29 percent generation, which can support the growing use of electricity in the are considered to be asset-limited, income-constrained, and transportation sector. employed (ALICE) (United for ALICE, 2020). The average house- • Civic and governance systems. The U.S. society is changing quickly, hold spends 16 percent of total expenditures on transportation— with shifting demographics and emerging technologies sup- the second biggest cost after housing (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statis- porting new ways of interacting, engaging, and collaborating. tics, 2021). Significant numbers of Americans have limited access Declining public trust, increasing polarization, and constrained to health care, education, fresh food, or high-speed Internet. funding make it challenging for the public sector to respond to • Work. Americans will increasingly work in different ways, in more complex issues. However, state and local governments often are places, and in more varied kinds of jobs. In 2021, more than one of laboratories of innovation, and online platforms and informal every four employees worked a flexible schedule, and more “third sector” social groups are bringing fresh perspectives—and than two in five reported working from home regularly (Fed- new ways of organizing—on many issues. Public-sector agencies eral Reserve Bank, 2021). Job growth is shifting to cognitive and are working to bring more services online to share information, non-routine activities—and automation and other technologies improve access to services, and optimize performance. are anticipated to replace some jobs and create new ones. • Risk and resilience. The United States is exposed to a growing • Trade and logistics. The global economy will continue to grow over range of risks, including extreme weather and climate trends, the next decade, increasing market opportunities and competition public health emergencies, cross-border flows of invasive species, 6

TABLE 4 Examples of Sorting Trends by Magnitude and Impact CATEGORY TIDES WAVES RIPPLES Demographics Aging and increasing diversity of Changes in immigration due to Reduction in life expectancy during U.S. population public policy COVID-19 pandemic Work Increasing automation and shift to Declining labor-force participation “Great resignation” of workers knowledge-based and nonroutine during COVID-19 pandemic jobs Trade and logistics Growth in emerging markets in Reshoring or nearshoring of Supply chain disruptions during/ South/Southeast Asia and sub- production back to the United after recovery from COVID-19 Saharan Africa States pandemic and the potential for terror attacks and cybersecurity threats. • Land use and development, including broad settlement patterns The average annual cost of natural disasters to the U.S. economy related to the overall distribution of growth across geographic between 2017 and 2021 was $148 billion (NOAA National Centers areas as well as more localized patterns such as housing and com- for Environmental Information, 2022). The nation must identify, munity design preferences. prepare for, respond to, and recover from these risks to protect • Climate and environment, including extreme weather events, long- our communities and our economy. term climate changes, and other broad environmental issues, such The research considered how these trends can be organized as changes in biodiversity. and sorted based on duration and magnitude, using three primary • Economy, including changes in global trade, logistics, and supply categories: chain patterns; the changing nature of work such as remote work • Tide. Major shifts with lasting impacts; typically, a 10-year-plus or impacts to employment from automation; and the shifting mix duration. of regional economic sectors. • Wave. Significant changes with some lasting impact; typically, • Population and demographics, including the overall rate of pop- ulation growth as well as the changes in age, income, race, and during a four- to nine-year period. other demographic characteristics. • Ripple. Minor changes with only temporary impacts or short-term Appendix D documents the synthesis of these five scenario plan- disruptions; typically, during a one- to three-year period. ning frameworks. This approach enabled a focus on the trends that could have the most significant and lasting impacts. Table 4 provides examples of FIGURE 2 Locations of examples of exploratory scenario how the trends can be organized into these categories. planning processes that were reviewed. The research also considered how to develop future scenarios to explore how these trends interact. Exploratory scenario planning embraces uncertainty to help organizations consider what might happen so they can prepare for what ultimately occurs. Exploratory scenario planning differs from traditional approaches to planning that often assume historical trends continue into the future. Instead, exploratory scenario planning considers a range of plausible futures. Each scenario describes a potential world where key uncertain- ties unfold in different directions. The scenarios help participants gain foresight into what could happen and consider how to best prepare. More than three dozen recent scenario planning processes were reviewed, including examples led by state DOTs, MPOs, and local Shaded states represent origin of examples of statewide governments, as well as initiatives from outside of the transportation scenario planning processes. sector. The examples emphasized scenario planning led by state Represents origin of examples of regional scenario planning processes. DOTs and MPOs in support of long-range transportation plans but also included standalone initiatives related to executive orders or regional visioning processes. While not an exhaustive list, the synthesis helped identify common themes. The synthesis identified several major trends and uncertainties that were the starting points for scenario planning most frequently (Figure 2): • Technology, including the pace of development and rate of adop- tion of new and emerging innovations such as automation, electri- fication/alternative energy, and connectivity. 7

A Look Inward: Engaging Current and Future DOT Leaders said these changes will require new approaches to communi- cating and engaging with customers and partners, as well as In the initial stages of the project, the project team interviewed nearly organizing and managing their internal teams. Many DOT lead- 30 leaders from state DOTs, including chief executive officers (CEOs), ers said their agencies had the structure and authority to evolve senior career staff, and emerging leaders identified by their agencies. over time, but others said they were constrained by outdated These interviews covered perceptions of the trends and uncertainties policies or requirements. Most acknowledged these changes impacting the future of transportation, the changes facing their agen- will influence the skills they seek to develop and retain in their cies, and the potential elements of a transportation vision. Table 5 workforce, with new competencies suggested in areas including identifies the DOT leaders who participated in this initial round of communications, customer service, psychology, analytics, and interviews during January–March 2022. systems thinking. The key themes of these interviews are summarized below, and Appendix E provides additional information. • State DOT leaders called for a national vision that provides the flexibility to address state-specific priorities. They said a national • State DOT leaders expect more change in the decade ahead. vision could provide a framework for collaborative action among Most DOT leaders said transportation had changed significantly the states, as well as the flexibility for each state to pursue invest- in the past 10 to 50 years, a period that included the develop- ments and actions that fit in its context. They said a vision should ment of the Interstate Highway System as well as significant provide core areas of agreement while enabling a wide variety of expansion in alternatives to highways for moving people and approaches and priorities among states. goods. CEOs and other leaders interviewed frequently pointed to a common set of trends and external forces that are expected to • State DOT leaders called for a national vision focused on how shape the future, including continued demographic shifts and transportation supports broader societal goals. Most leaders related changes in customer needs and expectations, a more interviewed said the vision should emphasize how transporta- diverse economy with more complex supply chains, continued tion supports broader goals such as community and economic introduction of new technologies, and a changing climate. Many development—on transportation as a means, not an end. How- ever, there was some caution about ensuring the focus on com- said they believe emerging technologies and business models munity outcomes does not inhibit additional core missions such provide opportunities to dramatically increase safety, efficiency, as ensuring safety and maintaining the public’s investments in and accessibility. At the same time, they expressed concern infrastructure. about the ability to improve the system for all customers equi- tably, and about whether existing policies, funding constraints, and partisan divisions will stand in the way of leveraging new A Look Outward: Engaging Partners and Stakeholders opportunities. The project team also interviewed nearly 40 thought leaders outside • State DOT leaders often said they believe their agencies will of state DOTs, including local governments, public transportation continue to evolve. Many DOTs are anticipated to shift from a providers, and MPOs: and leaders in technology, energy, tourism, primary emphasis on building new capacity to a broader focus on agriculture, economic development, workforce, health and human being stewards of the multimodal transportation system. Other services, demographics, and the environment. These interviews anticipated changes include greater emphasis on safety, resilience, covered perceptions of the trends and uncertainties impacting the equity, and customer service, as well as broader economic and future of transportation and the potential elements of a transpor- community development goals that may differ across states. Many tation vision. Table 6 identifies the partner and stakeholder leaders DOT leaders also said they anticipate new and evolving partner- who participated in this initial round of interviews from October 2021 ships with local governments, MPOs, and the private sector. They to March 2022. TABLE 5 State DOTs Represented in Initial Interviews with Agency Leadership Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities Missouri Department of Transportation California State Transportation Agency Nevada Department of Transportation Delaware Department of Transportation New Hampshire Department of Transportation Georgia Department of Transportation New Jersey Department of Transportation Hawaii Department of Transportation North Carolina Department of Transportation Iowa Department of Transportation North Dakota Department of Transportation Kansas Department of Transportation Ohio Department of Transportation Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development Pennsylvania Department of Transportation Maine Department of Transportation Texas Department of Transportation Massachusetts Department of Transportation Utah Department of Transportation Michigan Department of Transportation Washington State Department of Transportation Minnesota Department of Transportation West Virginia Department of Transportation 8

TABLE 6 Partner and Stakeholder Organizations Participating in Initial Interviews with Leadership AARP Jack Entertainment Beep, Inc. Jacobs Engineering Broward Metropolitan Planning Organization Lilium Aviation Brulte & Co. Martin County, Florida Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization Memphis River Parks Partnership Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning Miami-Dade County, Florida City-Fi National Center of Disability Rights Cognizant Center for the Future of Work National Conference of State Legislatures Columbus Partnership National Resources Defense Council Connected Vehicle Trade Association North Carolina State University Cornell Tech PolicyLink Dartmouth College Rocky Mountain Institute Equitable Cities, Inc. Southeast Pennsylvania Transportation Authority Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Soy Transportation Coalition Google Space Florida Governing Magazine The Nature Conservancy Henderson, Nevada The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Institute of Human and Machine Cognition United for ALICE Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Weyerhaeuser The key themes of these interviews are summarized below. See outdoor recreation. They also expect more emphasis on com- Appendix F for additional information. munity-based solutions that integrate transportation, land use, water, energy, and other infrastructure and public facilities. • Partner organizations share many of the same concerns as state DOTs. When asked about the trends and uncertainties likely to be – Increasing emphasis on risks, including extreme weather, most significant in the future, partners pointed to: climate change, public health emergencies, cybersecurity, and geopolitical instability. – Demographic shifts, including the aging of the population and increasing racial and ethnic diversity. Partners said these – Increasing use of technology and innovation. Partners said trends may lead to more diverse mobility needs and reinforce they are optimistic about how technology can improve safety, a trend already underway toward more customized and con- access, and mobility. But they cautioned about whether the venient transportation solutions. pace of change can meet public expectations; whether tech- – Growing emphasis on diversity, equity, and inclusion in nology will allow for new approaches or simply automate exist- all aspects of society. Implications include the historic legacy ing ones; and whether innovation would perpetuate existing of communities disproportionately impacted by prior invest- disparities or create new “digital gaps.” ments; uneven safety, health, and environmental risks across • Partner organizations identified opportunities to work more closely communities; and uneven access to jobs, health care, educa- with DOTs to better serve communities. This included collab- tion, and services across communities. oration to address the relationship between transportation and – Economic shifts, driven by innovation and changing customer housing, land use, and economic development. They called for demand. Partners said the shift to remote work, flexible hours, state DOTs to work more closely with organizations that engage and “gig” employment may be early signals of a reshaping of with traditionally underrepresented groups, from those who are the nature of work. They also said COVID-19 accelerated a shift working and have low incomes to older adults, to ensure DOTs toward e-commerce, home delivery of goods and services, and meet the needs of an increasingly diverse customer base. They also more distributed and precise supply chains. They expect more identified opportunities for state DOTs to work more closely with supply chain disruptions due to shifting global trade patterns, technology providers and entrepreneurs to leverage private-sector changing energy sources, and reshoring or nearshoring of innovation and ingenuity to support public-sector goals. manufacturing back to the United States. • Partner organizations said state DOTs can play a unique role in – Changing development patterns. Partners expect the U.S. advancing a national vision and coalescing partners to action population will become more urban with greater variation in in their individual states. Those interviewed said they desired a the form and character of urban areas. Partners expect many bold, shared national transportation vision focused on how trans- rural areas to continue to see population loss, although some portation supports broader community goals—and, like the state will remain important for agriculture and natural resources or DOTs, they recognized the need for state and region-specific 9

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