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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27294.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27294.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27294.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27294.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27294.
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Below is the uncorrected machine-read text of this chapter, intended to provide our own search engines and external engines with highly rich, chapter-representative searchable text of each book. Because it is UNCORRECTED material, please consider the following text as a useful but insufficient proxy for the authoritative book pages.

2023 N A T I O N A L C O O P E R A T I V E H I G H W A Y R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1064 Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions MRIGlobal Kansas City, MO Darren J. Torbic Ingrid B. Potts Texas A&M Transportation Institute College Station, TX S. Ilgin Guler Vikash V. Gayah The Thomas D. Larson Pennsylvania Transportation Institute University Park, PA Douglas W. Harwood Harwood Road Safety Leawood, KS O er Grembek Julia B. Griswold Safe Transportation Research and Education Center Berkeley, CA Shane A. Turner Abley Christchurch, NZ Subscriber Categories Pedestrians and Bicyclists • Design • Safety and Human Factors Research sponsored by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Ofcials in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration

NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transporta- tion results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to high- way authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 ini- tiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agree- ment No. 693JJ31950003. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was requested by AASHTO to administer the research program because of TRB’s recognized objectivity and understanding of modern research practices. TRB is uniquely suited for this purpose for many reasons: TRB maintains an extensive com- mittee structure from which authorities on any highway transportation subject may be drawn; TRB possesses avenues of communications and cooperation with federal, state, and local governmental agencies, univer- sities, and industry; TRB’s relationship to the National Academies is an insurance of objectivity; and TRB maintains a full-time staff of special- ists in highway transportation matters to bring the findings of research directly to those in a position to use them. The program is developed on the basis of research needs iden- tified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA. Topics of the highest merit are selected by the AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I), and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Direc- tors and the National Academies. Research projects to address these topics are defined by NCHRP, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. Administration and surveillance of research contracts are the responsibilities of the National Academies and TRB. The needs for highway research are many, and NCHRP can make significant contributions to solving highway transportation problems of mutual concern to many responsible groups. The program, however, is intended to complement, rather than to substitute for or duplicate, other highway research programs. Published research reports of the NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM are available from Transportation Research Board Business Office 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 and can be ordered through the Internet by going to https://www.mytrb.org/MyTRB/Store/default.aspx Printed in the United States of America NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1064 Project 17-84 ISSN 2572-3766 (Print) ISSN 2572-3774 (Online) ISBN 978-0-309-69903-7 Library of Congress Control Number 2023943919 © 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trade- marks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. NOTICE The research report was reviewed by the technical panel and accepted for publication according to procedures established and overseen by the Transportation Research Board and approved by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or spec- ifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names or logos appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report.

e National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, non- governmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. e National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. e National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. e three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. e National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org. e Transportation Research Board is one of seven major programs of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. e mission of the Transportation Research Board is to provide leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation. e Board’s varied activities annually engage about 8,000 engineers, scientists, and other transportation researchers and practitioners from the public and private sectors and academia, all of whom contribute their expertise in the public interest. e program is supported by state transportation departments, federal agencies including the component administrations of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and other organizations and individuals interested in the development of transportation. Learn more about the Transportation Research Board at www.TRB.org.

C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S AUTHOR ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported herein was performed under NCHRP Project 17-84, “Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions for the Highway Safety Manual.” This final report was prepared by Dr. Darren J. Torbic and Ms. Ingrid B. Potts (both formerly with MRIGlobal) of the Texas A&M Transportation Insti- tute; Dr. S. Ilgin Guler and Dr. Vikash V. Gayah of the Thomas D. Larson Pennsylvania Transportation Institute; Mr. Douglas W. Harwood of Harwood Road Safety LLC; Dr. Offer Grembek and Dr. Julia B. Griswold of the Safe Transportation Research and Education Center; and Dr. Shane A. Turner of Abley. Mr. Daniel J. Cook, Ms. Jessica M. Hutton, Mr. Joseph C. Grotheer, and Mr. Michel A. Conn (all formerly with MRIGlobal) played key roles in this research. This final report presents the overall research including the literature review; survey of practice; details on developing pedestrian and bicycle safety performance functions (SPFs) for roadway segments and inter- sections incorporating pedestrian and bicyclist exposure data; details on developing crash prediction methods for pedestrian and bicycle crashes for the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) based on the crash prediction models used by the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP); details of developing models to estimate pedestrian and bicycle safety performance in the absence of pedestrian and bicyclist exposure data; general conclusions from the research; future research needs; and recommended changes to the HSM. The authors wish to thank the Minnesota Department of Transportation, the Ohio Department of Trans- portation, the Minneapolis Public Works Department, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, and the International Road Assessment Program for their assistance in this research. CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP RESEARCH REPORT 1064 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Christopher T. McKenney, Senior Program Officer Sheila A. Moore, Program Associate Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications NCHRP PROJECT 17-84 PANEL Field of Traffic—Area of Safety James M. Ercolano, New York State Department of Transportation, Latham, NY (Chair) Morteza Asgarzadeh, Harvard University, Framingham, MA Melissa J. Barnes, Minnesota Department of Transportation, Roseville, MN Gordon R. Lovegrove, University of British Columbia, Kelowna, BC Karina Macias, Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Los Angeles, CA John C. Milton, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, WA Rebecca L. Mowry, California Department of Transportation (CALTRANS), Sacramento, CA Sarah Worth O’Brien, University of North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center, Chapel Hill, NC April Renard, Grey Engineering, LLC, Greenwell Springs, LA David Anthony Petrucci, Jr., FHWA Liaison Kelly K. Hardy, AASHTO Liaison Bernardo B. Kleiner, TRB Liaison

NCHRP Research Report 1064 presents state departments of transportation (DOTs) and other transportation professionals with a wide range of pedestrian and bicycle safety performance functions (SPFs). The research was based on comprehensive laboratory and field investigations to assist state DOTs with formulating effective decisions in planning, design, and operations. This report will be of immediate interest to design engineers and transportation planning engineers. Each year, national crash studies have estimated that while overall traffic fatalities are decreasing, the percentages of those fatalities among pedestrians and cyclists are increasing. The Federal Highway Administration estimates pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities compose about 19 percent of all traffic fatalities with approximately 6,000 pedestrian deaths and 850 bicyclist deaths annually. Another 76,000 pedestrians and 47,000 bicyclists are injured in roadway crashes annually. In 2020, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates indicated 6,516 pedestrian fatalities and an estimated 55,000 pedestrian injuries nationwide. Key findings also indicated 938 cyclist fatalities, which accounted for 2.4 percent of all traffic fatalities during 2020 and represented a 9 percent increase in cyclist fatalities occurring in 2019. However, most crash datasets have insufficient data for pedestrian and bicycle safety analysis at all severity levels. The shortage of quality crash data (frequency, severity, injury patterns, contributing factors, and crash types) and exposure data (volume, severity, and event data) for different contexts impede the development of SPFs for pedestrians and bicyclists. Research was needed beyond traditional data collection to (1) develop pedestrian and bicycle SPFs using risk-based or predictive methods for transportation practitioners at all levels to better inform planning, design, and operations decisions and (2) provide practitioners with reliable pedestrian and bicycle crash estimates that can be used throughout the planning and project development process and to measure performance. Under NCHRP Project 17-84, “Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions for the Highway Safety Manual,” MRIGlobal and the Texas A&M Transportation Institute were asked to (1) develop pedestrian and bicycle SPFs using risk-based or predictive methods; (2) address a broad range of issues related to evaluating pedestrian and bicycle safety, such as analyzing the barriers to collecting pedestrian and bicycle safety performance data and developing performance-based decisions in the United States (e.g., legality, privacy restrictions, liability, data ownership, missing data, data incompatibility); and (3) develop models to esti- mate pedestrian and bicycle safety performance based on crash data in the absence of pedes- trian and bicycle exposure data. F O R E W O R D By Christopher T. McKenney Staff Officer Transportation Research Board

In addition to this report, three spreadsheet tools were developed or updated to incorpo- rate the pedestrian and bicycle SPFs for use with Highway Safety Manual procedures. These tools can be found on the National Academies Press website (nap.nationalacademies.org) by searching for NCHRP Research Report 1064. • Model Analysis Tool for Rural Two-Lane, Two-Way Roads. • Model Analysis Tool for Rural Multilane Highways. • Model Analysis Tool for Urban and Suburban Arterials.

1 Summary 4 Section 1 Introduction 4 1.1 Background 6 1.2 Research Objective and Scope 7 1.3 General Research Approach 8 1.4 Outline of Report 9 Section 2 Literature Review and Survey of Practice 9 2.1 Literature Review 60 2.2 Survey of Practice 94 2.3 Summary of Key Issues 100 Section 3 Development of Pedestrian and Bicycle Models Incorporating Available Pedestrian and Bicyclist Exposure Data 100 3.1 Site Selection and Data Collection 109 3.2 Descriptive Statistics of Final Databases 141 3.3 Safety Performance Functions: Model Development 145 3.4 Analysis Results 194 3.5 Calibration of the Models 195 3.6 Summary and Recommendations 201 Section 4 Development of Pedestrian and Bicycle Models Based on Road Assessment Program Methodology 201 4.1 General Adaptations Made to the RAP Procedures 211 4.2 Crash Prediction Models for Pedestrian Crashes 246 4.3 Crash Prediction Method for Bicycle Crashes 273 4.4 Summary and Recommendations 276 Section 5 Development of Pedestrian and Bicycle Models in the Absence of Pedestrian and Bicyclist Exposure Data 276 5.1 Data and Data Preparation 278 5.2 Model Development 279 5.3 Analysis Results 285 5.4 Summary 287 Section 6 Conclusions, Recommendations, and Future Research 287 6.1 Conclusions and Recommendations 288 6.2 Future Research C O N T E N T S

290 References 297 Abbreviations and Acronyms Note: Photographs, figures, and tables in this report may have been converted from color to grayscale for printing. The electronic version of the report (posted on the web at nap.nationalacademies.org) retains the color versions.

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Each year, national crash studies have estimated that while overall traffic fatalities are decreasing, the percentages of those fatalities among pedestrians and cyclists are increasing.

NCHRP Research Report 1064: Pedestrian and Bicycle Safety Performance Functions, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, presents state departments of transportation and other transportation professionals with an update of pedestrian and bicycle safety performance functions (SPFs).

Supplemental to the report are three spreadsheet tools that address SPFs on rural multilane roads, rural two-lane roads, and urban/suburban arterials.

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