Accessing America's Great Outdoors: Forecasting Recreational Travel Demand (2023)

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NCHRP Web-Only Document 380 Accessing America’s Great Outdoors FORECASTING RECREATIONAL TRAVEL DEMAND RSG White River Junction, VT Conduct of Research Report for NCHRP Project 08-132 Submitted June 2023 © 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and the graphical logo are trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM Systematic, well-designed, and implementable research is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers. Often, highway problems are of local or regional interest and can best be studied by state DOTs individually or in cooperation with their state universities and others. However, the accelerating growth of highway transportation results in increasingly complex problems of wide interest to highway authorities. These problems are best studied through a coordinated program of cooperative research. Recognizing this need, the leadership of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) in 1962 initiated an objective national highway research program using modern scientific techniques—the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP). NCHRP is supported on a continuing basis by funds from participating member states of AASHTO and receives the full cooperation and support of the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), United States Department of Transportation, under Agreement No. 693JJ31950003. COPYRIGHT INFORMATION Authors herein are responsible for the authenticity of their materials and for obtaining written permissions from publishers or persons who own the copyright to any previously published or copyrighted material used herein. Cooperative Research Programs (CRP) grants permission to reproduce material in this publication for classroom and not-for-profit purposes. Permission is given with the understanding that none of the material will be used to imply TRB, AASHTO, APTA, FAA, FHWA, FTA, GHSA, or NHTSA endorsement of a particular product, method, or practice. It is expected that those reproducing the material in this document for educational and not-for-profit uses will give appropriate acknowledgment of the source of any reprinted or reproduced material. For other uses of the material, request permission from CRP. DISCLAIMER The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this report are those of the researchers who performed the research. They are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board; the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; the FHWA; or the program sponsors. The Transportation Research Board does not develop, issue, or publish standards or specifications. The Transportation Research Board manages applied research projects which provide the scientific foundation that may be used by Transportation Research Board sponsors, industry associations, or other organizations as the basis for revised practices, procedures, or specifications. The Transportation Research Board, the National Academies, and the sponsors of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the object of the report. The information contained in this document was taken directly from the submission of the author(s). This material has not been edited by TRB.

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C O O P E R A T I V E R E S E A R C H P R O G R A M S CRP STAFF FOR NCHRP WEB-ONLY DOCUMENT 380 Waseem Dekelbab, Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs, and Manager, National Cooperative Highway Research Program Jennifer Weeks, Senior Program Officer Anthony Avery, Senior Program Assistant Natalie Barnes, Director of Publications Heather DiAngelis, Associate Director of Publications Jennifer Correro, Assistant Editor NCHRP PROJECT 08-132 PANEL Field of Transportation Planning—Area of Planning Methods & Processes Keith L. Killough, Arizona DOT (Retired), Phoenix, AZ (Chair) Linsey J. Callaghan, U.S. Department of Transportation Office of the Under Secretary for Policy, Narragansett, RI Rachel H. Collins, U.S. National Park Service, Lakewood, CO Nimish L. Dharmadhikari, San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego, CA Jesse S. Frankovich, Michigan Department of Transportation, Lansing, MI Helen H. Goldstein, Olympia, WA Mary Anne Koos, Tallahassee, FL Benjamin Knox Rasmussen, OST-R/Volpe Center, Minneapolis, MN Jonathan Upchurch, Ivins, UT Carol E. Zoff, Minnesota Department of Transportation, St. Paul, MN Christopher Douwes, FHWA Liaison

iv CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 .................................................................................................................................. 1 Purpose of the Project ............................................................................................................... 1 Overview of the Remaining Chapters ........................................................................................ 1 A Note on the Term Recreational Sites ..................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER 2 .................................................................................................................................. 3 Factors Agencies Typically Use to Forecast Recreational Travel Demand ............................... 3 Overview ................................................................................................................................ 3 Current Techniques Used for Forecasting Recreational Travel Demand and Assessing the Impacts of Policy Changes ............................................................................. 4 Current Methods for Implementing Recreational Travel Demand Models ............................. 7 Recreational Site Considerations for Visitor Models .............................................................. 8 Recreational Travel Volumes and Patterns and Their Effects on Demand Modeling as It Affects Transportation System Planning, Design, Operations, and Investment .............. 10 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 10 Trend Projection Models ...................................................................................................... 10 Special Generator Models ................................................................................................... 11 Individual Traveler Models ................................................................................................... 12 How Demand Models Lead to Transportation Impacts ........................................................ 12 Congestion ........................................................................................................................... 12 A Note on How the Research Team Will Address Impacts as Part of This Study ............... 12 Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................... 13 Environmental Analysis ....................................................................................................... 14 Stakeholder Interviews ........................................................................................................ 14 Interview Findings ................................................................................................................ 15 Factors That Drive Recreational Travel Volumes and Patterns and Their Effect on Recreational Travel Demand in Diverse Settings .................................................................... 17 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 17 Isolated Effects of Factors Driving Recreational Site Visitation ........................................... 17 Interactive and Synergistic Effects of Factors Driving Recreational Site Visitation .............. 19 Recreational Travel Demand Data Sources ............................................................................ 21 Overview .............................................................................................................................. 21 Previous Data Used in the Work Described in the Previous Sections ................................. 22 Summary of Identified Data Sources ................................................................................... 25 Big Data and Recreational Travel Forecasting .................................................................... 30

v CHAPTER 3 ................................................................................................................................ 33 Overview ................................................................................................................................. 33 The Overall Model Framework and Approach ......................................................................... 34 Residence Areas and Related Demand Generation Factors .................................................. 36 Sociodemographic data ....................................................................................................... 36 Land use data ...................................................................................................................... 36 Climate and elevation data .................................................................................................. 37 Defining Zones and Travel Impedance Factors ...................................................................... 38 Recreation Destination Recreational Sites and Demand Attraction Factors ........................... 39 Passively Collected Data (“Big Data”) Used for Model Estimation .......................................... 40 Screening Out Park Employee and Resident Trips ............................................................. 41 Screening Out Records Based on Data Completeness ....................................................... 42 Model Estimation ..................................................................................................................... 43 The Visitor Home Location Model ........................................................................................ 43 The Long-Distance Mode and Airport Choice Model ........................................................... 47 The Park Visit Generation Model ......................................................................................... 51 Auxiliary Models of Duration of Stay, Day and Time of Arrival and Departure, and Vehicle Miles Traveled .................................................................................................. 55 Implementing the Models in a Software Platform .................................................................... 65 Input Variables for Parkland Destinations ............................................................................ 66 Travel Made by International Visitors .................................................................................. 67 Modeling Adult Visits versus Total Park Entrances ............................................................. 68 Translating The Model Results to Traffic on the Local Road Network ................................. 69 Example Model Application and Validation Against Survey Data ........................................... 71 The Visitor Home Location Model ........................................................................................ 72 The Mode and Airport Choice Model ................................................................................... 79 The Park Visit Generation Model ......................................................................................... 82 CHAPTER 4 ................................................................................................................................ 86 Issues in using passively collected location-based services (LBS) data for modeling travel to parkland recreation sites ............................................................................ 86 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 87 Dealing with mutual causality between visitor demand and the supply of park amenities ...... 88 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 88 Updating Census boundaries, Census data, and other data sources ..................................... 89 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 89 Dealing with the multi-destination aspect of outdoor recreation travel .................................... 89 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 89

vi Customizing the model specification and calibration more closely to local conditions ............ 90 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 90 Applying the models for other types of outdoor recreational sites ........................................... 90 Recommendation ................................................................................................................. 91 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................ 92

vii L I S T O F F I G U R E S A N D T A B L E S Figure 1. Model system structure ................................................................................................................ 35 Figure 2. Disutility as a function of home to park road distance in the Visitor Home Location Model and season .............................................................................................. 47 Figure 3. Car mode disutility by distance between visitor home and park ................................................. 50 Figure 4. Disutility by distance between airport and park .......................................................................... 50 Table 1. Interviewed agencies and representatives. .................................................................................... 15 Table 2. Factors Driving Recreational Visitation and Patterns. .................................................................. 18 Table 3. Interactive and Synergistic Effects Driving Recreational Visitation. ........................................... 19 Table 4. Data source summary. ................................................................................................................... 26 Table 5. Variable categories, by data source. ............................................................................................. 29 Table 6. Single data record schema from big data ...................................................................................... 41 Table 7. Visitor home location model estimation results ............................................................................ 44 Table 8. The long-distance mode and airport choice model ....................................................................... 49 Table 9. Park Visit Generation Model ........................................................................................................ 52 Table 10. Model of whether or not the visitor lives within the halo area ................................................... 56 Table 11. Number of nights stay in the park and the halo area ................................................................... 57 Table 12. Models of number of nights stay in the park and the halo area .................................................. 59 Table 13. Models of vehicle-miles traveled in the park and the halo area .................................................. 61 Table 14. The day of the week visitors first arrive in the park or the halo area .......................................... 63 Table 15. Park arrival and departure period of the day combinations for halo residents ............................ 64 Table 16. Halo arrival and departure period of the day combinations for non-residents ............................ 65 Table 17. Percent of visitors who live outside the US, based on NPS visitor surveys ............................... 68 Table 18. Average number of children per adult visitor, from NPS survey data analysis .......................... 69 Table 19. Regression model of number of park entries .............................................................................. 69 Table 20. Distribution across residence states for Acadia (ME) National Park .......................................... 73 Table 21. Distribution across residence states for Biscayne (FL) National Park ........................................ 74 Table 22. Distribution across residence states for Grand Canyon (AZ) National Park .............................. 75 Table 23. Distribution across residence states for Glacier (MT) National Park ......................................... 76 Table 24. Distribution across residence states for Glacier Bay (AK) National Park .................................. 77 Table 25. Distribution of nights stay based on the LBS big data ................................................................ 78 Table 26. Distribution of nights stay based on the NPS survey data .......................................................... 78 Table 27. Air mode and airport shares for Acadia National Park ............................................................... 79 Table 28. Air mode and airport shares for Biscayne National Park ............................................................ 80 Table 29. Air mode and airport shares for Grand Canyon National Park ................................................... 80 Table 30. Air mode and airport shares for Glacier National Park .............................................................. 81 Table 31. Air mode and airport shares for Glacier Bay National Park ....................................................... 81 Table 32. Published and predicted visitor totals (person-visits) for 2019 ................................................... 83