Creating an Integrated System of Data and Statistics on Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth: Time to Build (2024)

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Creating an Integrated System of Data and Statistics on Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth Time to Build Timothy M. Smeeding, David S. Johnson, and Constance F. Citro, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and The California Community Foundation, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation (No. 2021- 006760-GRA), Omidyar Network Services LLC, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (No. G- 2022-19394). Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. 1560294) and several individual contracts. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: XXX International Standard Book Number-10: XXX Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27333 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Creating an Integrated System of Data and Statistics on Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth: Time to Build. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27333. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

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Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo. PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

COMMITTEE ON AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM OF U.S. HOUSEHOLD INCOME, WEALTH, AND CONSUMPTION DATA AND STATISTICS TO INFORM POLICY AND RESEARCH TIMOTHY M. SMEEDING (Chair), Lee Rainwater Distinguished Professor of Public Affairs & Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, Distinguished University Professor of Economics and Survey Methodology, University of Maryland WILLIAM A. DARITY, JR., Samuel DuBois Cook Distinguished Professor of Public Policy, Duke University KAREN DYNAN, Professor of the Practice, Economics Department and Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University JACOB W. FABER, Associate Professor of Sociology and Public Service, New York University ROBERT E. HALL, Robert and Carole McNeil Joint Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, and Professor of Economics, Stanford University STEPHEN P. JENKINS, Professor of Economic and Social Policy, London School of Economics DAMON JONES, Associate Professor, Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago AMY B. O’HARA, Research Professor, McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University LUIGI PISTAFERRI, Professor of Economics, Stanford University JOHN SABELHAUS, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution YAJUAN SI, Research Associate Professor, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan AMIR SUFI, Bruce Lindsay Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Chicago GABRIEL ZUCMAN, Professor of Economics, Paris School of Economics, and Associate Professor of Economics, University of California, Berkeley JORRIT ZWIJNENBURG, Head of Section, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Study Staff DAVID S. JOHNSON, Study Director CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar ALEX HENDERSON, Senior Program Assistant CHRISTOPHER MACKIE, Senior Program Officer Consultants RACHEL CARPENTER, Indiana University HELEN LEVY, University of Michigan KOSALI SIMON, Indiana University v PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park MICK P. COUPER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan WILLIAM A. DARITY, JR., Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University DIANA FARRELL, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Washington, DC ROBERT GOERGE, Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago ERICA L. GROSHEN, School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University DANIEL E. HO, Stanford Law School, Stanford University HILARY HOYNES, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California-Berkeley H.V. JAGADISH, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan DANIEL KIFER, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University SHARON LOHR, School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Arizona State University (emerita) NELA RICHARDSON, ADP Research Institute, Roseland, NJ C. MATTHEW SNIPP, School of the Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University ELIZABETH A. STUART, Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health MELISSA CHIU, Director CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Senior Scholar BRIAN HARRIS-KOJETIN, Senior Scholar vi PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: RICHARD BLUNDELL, University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies RICHARD V. BURKHAUSER, Cornell University CHRISTOPHER CARROLL, Johns Hopkins University PIRMIN FESSLER, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Austria THESIA I. GARNER, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics FIONA GREIG, Vanguard FATIH GUVENEN, University of Minnesota and Minnesota Economics Big Data Institute JEFF LARRIMORE, Federal Reserve Board SHARON LOHR, Arizona State University emerita JOSEPH PRICE, Brigham Young University Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by ARTHUR KENNICKELL, Federal Reserve System, retired and The Stone Center, CUNY, and KATHLEEN MULLAN HARRIS, University of North Carolina. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. vii PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Acknowledgments This report, Creating an Integrated System of Data and Statistics on Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth: Time to Build, is the result of contributions from many colleagues, whom we thank for sharing their time and expertise. Much of the work on improving data and statistics on income, consumption, and wealth has been conducted and developed within the federal statistical system and with collaborations with academic researchers. We were lucky enough to be part of this improvement process. As such, we would like to thank the Russell Sage Foundation and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth for their sponsorship of our initial research (with other collaborators) into assembling data on income, consumption, and wealth for the same individuals. On behalf of the panel, we are extremely grateful to the various foundations for funding and making this report a reality—Spiegel Family Fund (with help from California Community Foundation), The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and Omidyar Network. The panel benefitted greatly from the multiple presentations provided during the seven virtual public meetings held on May 16, July 12, September 20, October 4, and October 25, 2022, and on January 30 and February 27, 2023. The panel had an excellent initial public meeting where three distinguished National Academies members presented their views on the importance of the panel’s work: Raj Chetty, Harvard University, Angus Deaton, Princeton University, and Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley. The panel was also grateful to hear from the federal agencies about their important and critical work they are already pursuing to improve the measures of income, consumption, and wealth. These included: Marina Gindelsky and Dennis Fixler, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Jonathan Rothbaum, Census Bureau; Thesia Garner and Adam Safir, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Jesse Bricker and Alice Volz, Federal Reserve Board; Bilal Habib, Congressional Budget Office; and Victoria Bryant, Statistics of Income Division, Internal Revenue Service. At the following meeting, the panel heard about the new measures of income using IRS data from Jeff Larrimore, Federal Reserve Board; David Splinter and Jacob Mortenson, Joint Committee on Taxation; Barry Johnson, Statistics of Income Division; Bruce Meyer, the Comprehensive Income Dataset, University of Chicago; Jonathan Rothbaum, Census Bureau, on the National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics. It also heard about new efforts to estimate wealth from Eric Zwick, University of Chicago, and the construction of a method of accessing IRS data from Robert McClelland, Urban Institute. At one meeting, the panel heard about the innovative efforts at international statistical organizations, including presentations by Amanda Sinclair, Statistics Canada; Veli-Matti Tormalehto, Statistics Finland; Andrea Neri, Bank of Italy; Johan van Rooijen and Arjan Bruil, Statistics Netherlands; and updates from Carla Kidd, Office of National Statistics, United Kingdom, and Meghan Stephens, The Treasury in New Zealand. viii PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

The panel also heard about novel uses of commercial data from Brian Bucks, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; John Friedman, Brown University; Stephen Hansen, Imperial College; Matthew Shapiro, University of Michigan; and Chris Wheat, JPMorgan Chase Institute. The panel learned about efforts and challenges to create and use blended data from Mary Ann Bates, California Cradle to Career; Ron Borzekowski, Yale University; David Brown, Census Bureau; Abie Flaxman, University of Washington; Able Kho, Northwestern University; and Jerry Reiter, Duke University. Finally, the panel discussed the treatment of retirement income with Bill Gale, Brookings Institution; Olivia Mitchell, University of Pennsylvania; Jim Poterba, MIT and NBER; and Laura Quinby, Boston College. The panel also benefited from three experts who wrote commissioned papers on the treatment of health insurance: Helen Levy, University of Michigan; and Kosali Simon and Rachel Carpenter, Indiana University. We also thank the numerous audience members during these public meetings for their informative questions and discussions, and comments via Zoom chat. The panel could not have conducted its work without the capable staff at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine: Melissa Chiu, director of the Committee on National Statistics, provided invaluable support throughout the panel’s activities. Connie Citro and Christopher Mackie, with their extensive experience working with panels and drafting reports, provided insightful comments that improved the report. Alex Henderson ensured the smooth operation of the workshop and other panel activities and assisted with report production. Kirsten Sampson-Snyder and Bea Porter organized the review process; and Marc DeFrancis’s thorough editing improved the readability and accessibility of the report. We thank all of them for their contributions and assistance. Finally, we thank our colleagues on the panel. We appreciate your diligence and expertise in examining the difficult issues raised in this study. Your shared wisdom and generosity of time brought innovative ideas to the discussions and produced this report. It was a great pleasure to work with you all. Thank you. Timothy M. Smeeding, Chair David S. Johnson, Study Director Panel on an Integrated System of Household Income, Wealth, and Consumption Data and Statistics to Inform Policy and Research ix PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations Summary 1 Introduction and Overview HOW (AND WHY) CURRENT MEASURES ARE CONFUSING THE WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, WHY, AND HOW OF MEASURING ICW DISTRIBUTIONS What: The Choice of Income, Consumption, and Wealth Concepts Who: Whose Resource? When: Adjusting Resources Over Time Where: How Are Measures Adjusted for Differences in Geographic Location? How: Which Data Set and Summary Statistic? Why: The Purpose of the Measure IMPORTANT RESEARCH QUESTIONS USING ICW MEASURING Measuring Disparities in Economic Wellbeing Improving Other Policy-Relevant Measures and Analyses Retirement Security and Wealth Transfers U.S. AND INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES TO IMPROVE ICW DATA AND STATISTICS THE GOALS OF THIS REPORT Annexes to Chapter 1: Annex 1-1: Measuring and Interpreting Inequality Statistics Annex 1-2: Economic Wellbeing and the National Income and Product Accounts 2 Definitions and Conceptual Issues BASIC NOTIONS Household and Other Units Basic Definitions THE RELATIONSHIP OF INCOME, CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH TO ECONOMIC WELLBEING Income Nonhuman Wealth x PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Consumption INCOME, CONSUMPTION, SAVING, AND WEALTH LINKAGES Sources and Uses of Cash in the Household Discrepancies Conclusions About Definitions and Identities DEFINITIONAL DIVERSITY IN PRODUCTION OF ICW DATA AND STATISTICS—AN INTRODUCTION TO MICRODATA ON HOUSEHOLDS AND INDIVIDUALS Income Consumption and Consumption Expenditures Wealth Annex to Chapter 2: Difficult Definitional Areas in ICW Measurement 3 Statistics for Policy and Public Understanding BACKGROUND ESTABLISHED ESTIMATES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVEMENTS Established Series on Household Expenditures, Income, and Wealth Other Statistical Estimates of Expenditures, Income, and Wealth Joint Distributions of Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth FEATURES OF NEW AND IMPROVED ESTABLISHED STATISTICS Unit of Analysis Inflation Adjustment Methods Timeliness and Frequency DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR COMPONENTS, GROUPS, AND GEOGRAPHY Component Detail Classification by Economic Levels and Distributional Measures Geographic Detail Demographic Detail Race and Ethnicity SUMMARY 4 Data Requirements and Criteria AN IDEAL DATASET DATA QUALITY FRAMEWORKS RELEVANCE AND OTHER QUALITY ATTRIBUTES Surveys Administrative Records xi PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Commercial Data Sources ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY Survey Errors from Nonresponse and Misreporting Errors in Administrative Records Data Linkage Errors INTEGRATION PROJECTS: THE UNITED STATES INTEGRATED DATA INFRASTRUCTURES: OTHER COUNTRIES The Nordic Countries The Netherlands New Zealand The United Kingdom Lessons Learned 5 Data Solutions, Methods and Options STRATEGIES FOR MEASURING INCOME, CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH Direct Measurement Combining Data Sources Capitalization and Imputation Alignment to Aggregates WHAT COULD BE ACCOMPLISHED WITH AVAILABLE DATA? Population and Characteristics Incomes, Taxes, and Transfers Household Balance Sheet Components Consumption and Expenditure WHAT COULD BE ACCOMPLISHED USING PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE DATA? WHAT COULD BE ACCOMPLISHED USING A NEW PANEL WITH ADMINISTRATIVE DATA LINKAGES? HOW CAN WE MAKE DISTRIBUTIONAL ICW DATA TIMELY? WHAT CAN BE DONE IN TERMS OF SMALL AREA DATA SETS? MEASURING THE DIFFICULT-TO-MEASURE INCOME COMPONENTS Retirement Flows Employer Provided and Public Health Insurance Unrealized Capital Gains Imputed Rent on Owner-Occupied Housing 6 Governance, Legal, and Privacy Issues POTENTIAL DATA SOURCES: LEGAL AND PRIVACY ISSUES xii PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

DATA LINKAGES: GOVERNANCE AND PRIVACY ISSUES Protecting Privacy of Linked Data ACCESS TO ICW PRODUCTS FOR DATA USERS DATA ACCESS REALITIES Learning from International Peers ROADMAP FOR MAKING PROGRESS ON ICW DATA AND PRODUCTS Appendix A List of Conclusions and Recommendations Appendix B Committee Biographies References xiii PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Boxes, Figures, and Tables BOXES 1-1 Early Efforts to Measure Income, Consumption and Wealth 1-2 Intragenerational and Intergenerational Mobility: The Importance of Wealth Accumulation and the Capacity to Transfer Wealth Across and Within Generations 2-1 The Role of Time Use in Economic Wellbeing 3-1 Defining Established Statistics 3-2 Accommodating Programs that Use Estimates of Money Income for Eligibility 3-3 Alternative Definitions of Racial Categories and Use of Skin Tone 4-1 Introduction to the Person Identification Validation System and its Protected Identification Keys (PIKs) 4-2A Continuing Projects on Estimating U.S. Household/Family Income Distributions 4-2B World Inequality Database (WID) Project to Estimate Adult National Income and Wealth Cross-Nationally 4-2C One-Time Data Integration Projects on Income, Consumption, and Wealth 5-1 Measuring Transfers Across and Within Generations 5-2 Who Is Included in the Tax Data? 5-3 Creating a Coordinating Entity 5-4 Case Study: The Understanding America Study (UAS) 6-1 The Five Safes 6-2 Other Variables That May Be Useful for ICW Data Infrastructure FIGURES 1-1 Trends in personal income and household income, 1979-2022 1-2 Trends in inequality using various income measures, Gini index, 1979-2022 1-3 Percent share of income for the top 1% using various measures, 1979-2022 1-4 Inequality using income, consumption, and wealth, Gini indexes, 1968-2017 1-a Sample distribution of income 1-b Sample Lorenz curve, income shares 2a-1 Composition of income, population age 55 and beyond 2a-2 Equivalized private and final income, by quintile 2a-3 Income at various percentiles, with and without health insurance benefits 3-1 Percentage share of personal, household, and disposable income by household decile group xiv PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

3-2a Median and mean wealth, 2022, by age 3-2b Mean wealth by race/ethnicity, 1989–2019 4-1 Unit response rates to selected household surveys conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, 1984–2019 5-1A Data infrastructure for ICW using master address file as a base (or spine) 6-1 The three phases for the implementation of ICW data and statistics TABLES 2-1A Established Definitions of Income 2-1B Established Definitions of Consumption 2-1C Established Definitions of Wealth 3-1 Major Features of Established and Experimental U.S. Statistical Series on Household Consumption, Expenditures, Income, and Wealth 3-2 Examples of Units of Analysis Applied to Living Situations 3-3 Demographic Characteristics Published by Statistical Agencies for Estimates of Household Expenditures, Income, and Wealth 4-1 Quality Assessment of Relevant Surveys for an Integrated Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth Dataset 4-2 Quality Assessment of Selected Relevant Administrative Records for an Integrated Household Income, Consumption, and Wealth Dataset 4-3 Income Components (and Taxes) in Federal Individual Income Tax and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Administrative Records 4-4 Available or Potentially Available (to the Census Bureau) Administrative Data for Money Income, In-Kind Benefits, and Taxes 4-5 Error Components of Multiple Data Sources and Linked Datasets 4-6 Integrated Income, Consumption, and Wealth Dataset Projects (USA) 4-1A Quality Assessment of Relevant Surveys for an Integrated Household ICW Dataset: Income Components (and Taxes) 4-1B Quality Assessment of Relevant Surveys for an Integrated Household ICW Dataset: Consumption and Expenditures 4-1C Quality Assessment of Relevant Surveys for an Integrated Household ICW Dataset: Assets and Debts 5-1 Measures of Retirement Flows in Macro- and Microdata xv PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

Acronyms and Abbreviations ACDEB Advisory Committee on Data for Evidence Building ACS American Community Survey ADC America’s Data Hub Collaborative AGI adjusted gross income BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office CE Consumer Expenditure Survey CEP U.S. Commission on Evidence-Based Policymaking CIPSEA Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act CNSTAT Committee on National Statistics CPI Consumer Price Index CPI-U-RS Consumer Price Index—Research Series CPS Current Population Survey CPS-ASEC Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the CPS DB defined benefits DC defined contributions DFA distributional financial accounts DPI disposable personal income EIP economic impact payments EITC Earned Income Tax Credit FCSM Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology FRB Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board FSRDC Federal Statistical Research Data Center GAO Government Accountability Office GDP gross domestic product ICSP Interagency Council on Statistical Policy ICW income, consumption and wealth IDDA Income Distributions and Dynamics in America IRS Internal Revenue Service xvi PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

LEHD Longitudinal Employer-Household Database MAF Master Address File MAF-ARF Master Address File – Auxiliary Reference File MOVS Mobility, Opportunity and Volatility Study NASEM National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine NEWS National Experimental Wellbeing Statistics NIH National Institutes of Health NIPA National Income and Product Accounts NPISH Non-profit Institutions Serving Households NSDS National Secure Data Service NSDS-D National Secure Data Service-Demonstration Project OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OMB Office of Management and Budget OPM Official Poverty Measure PCE personal consumption expenditures PI personal income PII personally identifiable information PIK Protected Identification Key PPRL Privacy-Preserving Record Linkage SAP Standard Application Process SCF Survey of Consumer Finances SIPP Survey of Income and Program Participation SMC Secure Multiparty Computation SNA System of National Accounts SNAP Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program SOI Statistics of Income Program (of the IRS) SPM Supplemental Poverty Measure SSA Social Security Administration SSN Social Security Number TANF Temporary Assistance for Needy Families WID World Income Database xvii PREPUBLICATION COPY, UNCORRECTED PROOFS 

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