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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Image

Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear
War and Nuclear Terrorism

Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version)

______

Committee on Risk Analysis
Methods for Nuclear War and
Nuclear Terrorism

Board on Mathematical Sciences
and Analytics
Division on Engineering and
Physical Sciences

Nuclear and Radiation Studies
Board
Division on Earth and Life Studies

Committee on International
Security and Arms Control
Policy and Global Affairs


Consensus Study Report

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001

This activity was supported by Contract HQ003420C0180P00002 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-71307-8
International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-71307-2
Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27393

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Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27393.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president.

The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president.

The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine.

Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the study’s statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committee’s deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task.

Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies.

Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release.

For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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COMMITTEE ON RISK ANALYSIS METHODS FOR NUCLEAR WAR AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM

WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF, U.S. Navy (Retired), Co-Chair

M. ÉLISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL (NAE), Stanford University, Co-Chair

VICKI M. BIER, University of Wisconsin–Madison (Retired)

M. ELAINE BUNN, Independent Consultant

NANCY J. COOKE, Arizona State University

RAYMOND JEANLOZ (NAS), University of California, Berkeley

RICHARD W. MIES, The Mies Group, Ltd.

GREGORY S. PARNELL, University of Arkansas

SCOTT D. SAGAN, Stanford University

HENRY H. WILLIS, The RAND Corporation

ALYSON G. WILSON, North Carolina State University

PHILIP D. ZELIKOW, University of Virginia and Stanford University

Study Staff

JENNIFER (JENNY) HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer, Policy and Global Affairs, Study Director

MICHAEL JANICKE, Senior Program Officer, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board

MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator, Intelligence Community Studies Board

MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics

BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics

CHARLES FERGUSON, Senior Board Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board

BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics

MICAH LOWENTHAL, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control

Consultants

DAVID L. BANKS, Duke University

MADHAV V. MARATHE, University of Virginia

PAUL SLOVIC, Decision Research

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND ANALYTICS

MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles, Co-Chair

KAREN E. WILLCOX (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin, Co-Chair

HÉLÈNE BARCELO, Mathematical Sciences Research Institute

BONNIE BERGER (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

RUSSEL E. CAFLISCH (NAS), New York University

A. ROBERT CALDERBANK, Duke University

DUANE COOPER, Morehouse College

JAMES H. CURRY, University of Colorado Boulder

RONALD D. FRICKER, JR., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

RYAN GARIBALDI, Center for Communications Research

JULIE IVY, University of Michigan

LYDIA E. KABRAKI (NAM), Rice University

TAMARA G. KOLDA (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories

PETROS KOUMOOUTSAKOS (NAE), Harvard University

RACHEL KUSKE, Georgia Institute of Technology

YANN A. LECUN (NAS/NAE), Facebook

JILL PIPHER, Brown University

AARTI SINGH, Carnegie Mellon University

BRANI VIDAKOVIC, Texas A&M University

JUDY WALKER, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Staff

MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director

SAMANTHA KORETSKY, Research Assistant

HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Senior Finance Business Partner

JOSEPH PALMER, Senior Program Assistant

BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer

BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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NUCLEAR AND RADIATION STUDIES BOARD

WILLIAM H. TOBEY, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair

AMY BERRINGTON DE GONZALEZ, Institute of Cancer Research, Vice Chair

SALLY A. AMUNDSON, Columbia University

STEVEN M. BECKER, Old Dominion University

MADELYN R. CREEDON, Green Marble Group, LLC

LAWRENCE T. DAUER, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center

SHAHEEN A. DEWJI, Georgia Institute of Technology

PAUL T. DICKMAN, Argonne National Laboratory

DONALD FRUSH, Duke University School of Medicine

ALLISON M. MACFARLANE, University of British Columbia

ELEANOR MELAMED, National Nuclear Security Administration (Retired)

PER F. PETERSON (NAE), University of California, Berkeley

R. JULIAN PRESTON, Environmental Protection Agency

MONICA C. REGALBUTO, Idaho National Laboratory

Staff

CHARLES D. FERGUSON, Senior Board Director

LESLIE BEAUCHAMP, Senior Program Assistant

DARLENE GROS, Senior Program Assistant

MICHAEL JANICKE, Senior Program Officer

LAURA LLANOS, Senior Finance Business Partner

DANIEL MULROW, Program Officer

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL

RAYMOND JEANLOZ (NAS), University of California, Berkeley, Chair

ROSE E. GOTTEMOELLER, Stanford University, Vice Chair

ANDREW G. ALLEYNE, University of Minnesota

LINTON F. BROOKS, Independent Consultant

MARIANA BUDJERYN, Harvard University

MATTHEW G. BUNN, Harvard University

NANCY D. CONNELL, Johns Hopkins Cetner for Health Security

LINDA ELKINS-TANTON, Arizona State University

STEVEN A. FETTER, University of Maryland

DAVID R. FRANZ, Kansas State University

RICHARD L. GARWIN (NAS/NAE/NAM), IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center

DIANE E. GRIFFIN (NAS/NAE), Johns Hopkins University

MARGARET E. HAMBURG (NAM), Nuclear Threat Institute

MORIBA K. JAH, The University of Texas at Austin

ALASTAIR I. JOHNSTON, Harvard University

ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates

JAMES W. LEDUC, Galveston National Laboratory

JEFFREY LEWIS, Middlebury Institute of International Studies

HERBERT S. LIN, Stanford University

DOUGLAS L. LOVERRO, Loverro Consulting, LLC

RICHARD A. MESERVE (NAE), Covington & Burling, LLP

RICHARD W. MIES, The Mies Group, Ltd.

PETER PALESE (NAS/NAM), The Mount Sinai Hospital

LORA LANNAN SAALMAN, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

VICTORIA A. SAMSON, Secure World Foundation

RACHEL SEGALMAN, University California, Santa Barbara

JIM TIMBIE, Stanford University

Ex Officio Member

JOHN G. HILDEBRAND (NAS), University of Arizona

Staff

MICAH LOWENTHAL, Director

RITA GUENTHER, Senior Program Officer

HOPE HARE, Administrative Assistant

CANDACE HUNTINGTON, Research Associate

BENJAMIN RUSEK, Senior Program Officer

CARMEN SHAW, Associate Program Officer

ALEX TEMPLE, Program Officer

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Reviewers

This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.

We thank the following individuals for their review of this report:

KARI BINGEN, Center for Strategic and International Security

GERALD BROWN (NAE), Naval Postgraduate School

CHRISTOPHER FORD, The MITRE Corporation

HUBAN GOWADIA, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

BRENDAN MELLEY, National Defense University

NANCY JO NICHOLAS, Los Alamos National Laboratory

ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by CHRIS WHIPPLE (NAE), ENVIRON (Retired), and GEORGE APOSTOLAKIS (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

Acknowledgments

The committee acknowledges the Department of Defense for its support of this study. The committee thanks the many individuals who contributed to this study through briefings and discussions (a list is included in Appendix C).

In addition, several institutions hosted the committee for meetings. The committee acknowledges the entities and individuals at various agencies and locations who performed the hard work of logistical planning, organizing, and management of those meetings, including:

  • The Joint Chiefs of Staff for hosting the committee at the Pentagon for its August 2022 Meeting: Scott Dunn (Joint Staff J5) and Michael Hodgkin (Office of Secretary of Defense, retired);
  • The U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRACOM) for hosting the committee’s October 2022 Meeting: Jamica Lasonde (then-chief of deterrence research and analysis within USSTRACOM J57); William Preister (USSTRACOM J57); Michael Richards (USSTRACOM deputy chief of protocol);
  • The National Nuclear Security Administration within the Department of Energy for hosting its December 2022 meeting: Dallas Boyd (chief of staff, NA-80) and Victor Jones (Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Affairs): and
  • The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for hosting the committee’s July 2023 meeting: Brad Roberts (director, CGSR), Katie Thomas, Sandy Jackson, Michael Orozco, David Schoen, and Renee Travers.

The committee thanks the Phase I committee members who could not serve on the Phase II committee but volunteered their time as unpaid consultants: David Banks, Madhav Marathe, and Paul Slovic. Finally, the committee thanks the National Academies staff: Marguerite Schneider for excellent logistics planning and meeting support, Michelle Schwalbe for her leadership and contributions as director of the Board of Mathematical Sciences and Analytics, Michael Janicke for attending the meetings and assisting with the writing of the report, and Jennifer Heimberg in her role as the study director.

In addition, the committee co-chairs would like to thank the Phase II committee for their patience, willingness to share their ideas and listen to others, and their collegiality.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
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Page xiii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page R13
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
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The Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism was established and managed by the National Academies of Sciences, Medicine, and Engineering in response to a congressional mandate to independently explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the public, abbreviated version of the classified report.

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