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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version) Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Committee on International Security and Arms Control Policy and Global Affairs Consensus Study Report
NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by Contract HQ003420C0180P00002 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-71307-8 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-71307-2 Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27393 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2023 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27393.
The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Marcia McNutt is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. John L. Anderson is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The National Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public understanding in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine at www.nationalacademies.org.
Consensus Study Reports published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine document the evidence-based consensus on the studyâs statement of task by an authoring committee of experts. Reports typically include findings, conclusions, and recommendations based on information gathered by the committee and the committeeâs deliberations. Each report has been subjected to a rigorous and independent peer-review process and it represents the position of the National Academies on the statement of task. Proceedings published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine chronicle the presentations and discussions at a workshop, symposium, or other event convened by the National Academies. The statements and opinions contained in proceedings are those of the participants and are not endorsed by other participants, the planning committee, or the National Academies. Rapid Expert Consultations published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are authored by subject-matter experts on narrowly focused topics that can be supported by a body of evidence. The discussions contained in rapid expert consultations are considered those of the authors and do not contain policy recommendations. Rapid expert consultations are reviewed by the institution before release. For information about other products and activities of the National Academies, please visit www.nationalacademies.org/about/whatwedo.
COMMITTEE ON RISK ANALYSIS METHODS FOR NUCLEAR WAR AND NUCLEAR TERRORISM WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF, U.S. Navy (Retired), Co-Chair M. ÃLISABETH PATÃ-CORNELL (NAE), Stanford University, Co-Chair VICKI M. BIER, University of WisconsinâMadison (Retired) M. ELAINE BUNN, Independent Consultant NANCY J. COOKE, Arizona State University RAYMOND JEANLOZ (NAS), University of California, Berkeley RICHARD W. MIES, The Mies Group, Ltd. GREGORY S. PARNELL, University of Arkansas SCOTT D. SAGAN, Stanford University HENRY H. WILLIS, The RAND Corporation ALYSON G. WILSON, North Carolina State University PHILIP D. ZELIKOW, University of Virginia and Stanford University Study Staff JENNIFER (JENNY) HEIMBERG, Senior Program Officer, Policy and Global Affairs, Study Director MICHAEL JANICKE, Senior Program Officer, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board MARGUERITE SCHNEIDER, Administrative Coordinator, Intelligence Community Studies Board MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics CHARLES FERGUSON, Senior Board Director, Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer, Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics MICAH LOWENTHAL, Director, Committee on International Security and Arms Control Consultants DAVID L. BANKS, Duke University MADHAV V. MARATHE, University of Virginia PAUL SLOVIC, Decision Research v
BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND ANALYTICS MARK L. GREEN, University of California, Los Angeles, Co-Chair KAREN E. WILLCOX (NAE), The University of Texas at Austin, Co-Chair HÃLÃNE BARCELO, Mathematical Sciences Research Institute BONNIE BERGER (NAS), Massachusetts Institute of Technology RUSSEL E. CAFLISCH (NAS), New York University A. ROBERT CALDERBANK, Duke University DUANE COOPER, Morehouse College JAMES H. CURRY, University of Colorado Boulder RONALD D. FRICKER, JR., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University RYAN GARIBALDI, Center for Communications Research JULIE IVY, University of Michigan LYDIA E. KABRAKI (NAM), Rice University TAMARA G. KOLDA (NAE), Sandia National Laboratories PETROS KOUMOOUTSAKOS (NAE), Harvard University RACHEL KUSKE, Georgia Institute of Technology YANN A. LECUN (NAS/NAE), Facebook JILL PIPHER, Brown University AARTI SINGH, Carnegie Mellon University BRANI VIDAKOVIC, Texas A&M University JUDY WALKER, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Staff MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE, Director SAMANTHA KORETSKY, Research Assistant HEATHER LOZOWSKI, Senior Finance Business Partner JOSEPH PALMER, Senior Program Assistant BLAKE REICHMUTH, Associate Program Officer BRITTANY SEGUNDO, Program Officer vi
NUCLEAR AND RADIATION STUDIES BOARD WILLIAM H. TOBEY, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair AMY BERRINGTON DE GONZALEZ, Institute of Cancer Research, Vice Chair SALLY A. AMUNDSON, Columbia University STEVEN M. BECKER, Old Dominion University MADELYN R. CREEDON, Green Marble Group, LLC LAWRENCE T. DAUER, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center SHAHEEN A. DEWJI, Georgia Institute of Technology PAUL T. DICKMAN, Argonne National Laboratory DONALD FRUSH, Duke University School of Medicine ALLISON M. MACFARLANE, University of British Columbia ELEANOR MELAMED, National Nuclear Security Administration (Retired) PER F. PETERSON (NAE), University of California, Berkeley R. JULIAN PRESTON, Environmental Protection Agency MONICA C. REGALBUTO, Idaho National Laboratory Staff CHARLES D. FERGUSON, Senior Board Director LESLIE BEAUCHAMP, Senior Program Assistant DARLENE GROS, Senior Program Assistant MICHAEL JANICKE, Senior Program Officer LAURA LLANOS, Senior Finance Business Partner DANIEL MULROW, Program Officer vii
COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL RAYMOND JEANLOZ (NAS), University of California, Berkeley, Chair ROSE E. GOTTEMOELLER, Stanford University, Vice Chair ANDREW G. ALLEYNE, University of Minnesota LINTON F. BROOKS, Independent Consultant MARIANA BUDJERYN, Harvard University MATTHEW G. BUNN, Harvard University NANCY D. CONNELL, Johns Hopkins Cetner for Health Security LINDA ELKINS-TANTON, Arizona State University STEVEN A. FETTER, University of Maryland DAVID R. FRANZ, Kansas State University RICHARD L. GARWIN (NAS/NAE/NAM), IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center DIANE E. GRIFFIN (NAS/NAE), Johns Hopkins University MARGARET E. HAMBURG (NAM), Nuclear Threat Institute MORIBA K. JAH, The University of Texas at Austin ALASTAIR I. JOHNSTON, Harvard University ROBERT H. LATIFF, R. Latiff Associates JAMES W. LEDUC, Galveston National Laboratory JEFFREY LEWIS, Middlebury Institute of International Studies HERBERT S. LIN, Stanford University DOUGLAS L. LOVERRO, Loverro Consulting, LLC RICHARD A. MESERVE (NAE), Covington & Burling, LLP RICHARD W. MIES, The Mies Group, Ltd. PETER PALESE (NAS/NAM), The Mount Sinai Hospital LORA LANNAN SAALMAN, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute VICTORIA A. SAMSON, Secure World Foundation RACHEL SEGALMAN, University California, Santa Barbara JIM TIMBIE, Stanford University Ex Officio Member JOHN G. HILDEBRAND (NAS), University of Arizona Staff MICAH LOWENTHAL, Director RITA GUENTHER, Senior Program Officer HOPE HARE, Administrative Assistant CANDACE HUNTINGTON, Research Associate BENJAMIN RUSEK, Senior Program Officer CARMEN SHAW, Associate Program Officer ALEX TEMPLE, Program Officer viii
Reviewers This Consensus Study Report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: KARI BINGEN, Center for Strategic and International Security GERALD BROWN (NAE), Naval Postgraduate School CHRISTOPHER FORD, The MITRE Corporation HUBAN GOWADIA, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory BRENDAN MELLEY, National Defense University NANCY JO NICHOLAS, Los Alamos National Laboratory ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by CHRIS WHIPPLE (NAE), ENVIRON (Retired), and GEORGE APOSTOLAKIS (NAE), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. ix
Acknowledgments The committee acknowledges the Department of Defense for its support of this study. The committee thanks the many individuals who contributed to this study through briefings and discussions (a list is included in Appendix C). In addition, several institutions hosted the committee for meetings. The committee acknowledges the entities and individuals at various agencies and locations who performed the hard work of logistical planning, organizing, and management of those meetings, including: ï· The Joint Chiefs of Staff for hosting the committee at the Pentagon for its August 2022 Meeting: Scott Dunn (Joint Staff J5) and Michael Hodgkin (Office of Secretary of Defense, retired); ï· The U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRACOM) for hosting the committeeâs October 2022 Meeting: Jamica Lasonde (then-chief of deterrence research and analysis within USSTRACOM J57); William Preister (USSTRACOM J57); Michael Richards (USSTRACOM deputy chief of protocol); ï· The National Nuclear Security Administration within the Department of Energy for hosting its December 2022 meeting: Dallas Boyd (chief of staff, NA-80) and Victor Jones (Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Affairs): and ï· The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory for hosting the committeeâs July 2023 meeting: Brad Roberts (director, CGSR), Katie Thomas, Sandy Jackson, Michael Orozco, David Schoen, and Renee Travers. The committee thanks the Phase I committee members who could not serve on the Phase II committee but volunteered their time as unpaid consultants: David Banks, Madhav Marathe, and Paul Slovic. Finally, the committee thanks the National Academies staff: Marguerite Schneider for excellent logistics planning and meeting support, Michelle Schwalbe for her leadership and contributions as director of the Board of Mathematical Sciences and Analytics, Michael Janicke for attending the meetings and assisting with the writing of the report, and Jennifer Heimberg in her role as the study director. In addition, the committee co-chairs would like to thank the Phase II committee for their patience, willingness to share their ideas and listen to others, and their collegiality. xi
Contents SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION MOTIVATION AND CONTEXT 3 Background and Charge for the Study, 4 Interpretation of the Statement of Task, 6 Organization of the Report, 6 2 RISK ANALYSIS 8 U.S. Government Risk Analysis Methods, 11 Examples of Risk Analysis Methods Within the U.S. Government, 12 3 DEVELOPMENT OF RISK-INFORMED STRATEGIES 14 Implementing Integrated Deterrence, 14 4 CONCLUSION 18 REFERENCES 19 APPENDIXES A Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff 23 B Request for Information 29 C List of Phase II Briefers 32 xiii