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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version) (2023)

Chapter: Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff

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Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

A
Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff

WILLIAM C. OSTENDORFF (U.S. Navy, Retired), Co-Chair, is a nuclear expert and a nuclear industry consultant and serves on several corporate boards. He joined the Naval Academy’s Political Science Department as the Class of 1960 distinguished visiting professor in national security in August 2016. He served as the U.S. Naval Academy Distinguished visiting professor of national security from 2016 to 2017. Captain Ostendorff served as the principal deputy administrator at the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) in the Bush administration (2007–2009) and as a commissioner at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC, 2010–2016) in the Obama administration prior to joining the Naval Academy faculty. From 2003 to 2007, he was a member of the staff of the House Armed Services Committee. Captain Ostendorff was an officer in the U.S. Navy from 1976 until he retired in 2002. Entering the Rickover Nuclear Navy, he served on six submarines. During his naval career, he commanded a nuclear attack submarine and a nuclear attack submarine squadron and served as the director of the Division of Mathematics and Science at the Naval Academy. His military decorations include four awards of the Legion of Merit and numerous unit and campaign awards. In 2023, the American Nuclear Society awarded him the Dwight D. Eisenhower medal. Captain Ostendorff earned a bachelor’s degree in systems engineering from the Naval Academy, a law degree from the University of Texas, and a master’s degree in international and comparative law from Georgetown University.

M. ÉLISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Co-Chair, is the Burt and Deedee McMurtry professor and founding chair of the Department of Management Science and Engineering at Stanford University. Her specialty is engineering risk analysis and risk analysis with applications to complex systems such as space, medical, and intelligence. Her research has focused on explicit consideration of human and organizational factors in the analysis of failure risks and on the use of game theory in risk analysis. Applications in recent years have included counter-terrorism, nuclear counter-proliferation problems, and cyber risk analysis. She was a member of several boards, including Aerospace, Draper, and In-Q-Tel and monitor of the Society for Risk Analysis (1995). She was a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board until December 2008. She is currently a member of the NASA Advisory Council. She was awarded the 2021 IEEE Ramo medal in systems engineering and systems science. She received a PhD in engineering economic systems from Stanford University. Dr. Paté-Cornell was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 1995.

VICKI M. BIER recently retired from a joint appointment as a professor in the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering and the Department of Engineering Physics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, where she directed the Center for Human Performance and Risk Analysis (formerly the Center for Human Performance in Complex Systems) from 1995 to 2021. She was recently appointed to the Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguard at NRC. She has more than 40 years of experience in risk analysis for the nuclear power, chemical, petrochemical, and aerospace industries, as well as homeland security and critical-infrastructure protection. Dr. Bier’s recent research has focused on applications of risk analysis and related methods to problems of security, critical infrastructure protection, and emergency management. Dr. Bier received the Women’s Achievement Award from the American Nuclear Society in 1993 and was elected a fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis in 1996, from which

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

she received the Distinguished Achievement Award in 2007. She is also a past president of the Decision Analysis Society and editor-in-chief of the society’s flagship journal Decision Analysis. She has participated in panels, committees, and subcommittees of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine dealing with radioactive waste management and a committee to review the Department of Homeland Security’s approach to risk analysis and served on the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics from 2014 to 2016. She received a PhD in operations research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1983 and a BS in mathematical sciences from Stanford University in 1976.

M. ELAINE BUNN is a consultant on strategic issues, with 40 years of experience in the U.S. government working on defense policy. She is based in Washington, DC. She addresses international audiences on nuclear policy, extended deterrence, and missile defense. Her writings include articles and book chapters on deterrence, assurance of allies, strategic planning, nuclear policy, missile defense, arms control, and preemption. She serves as a mentor for university students to mid-career professionals, including through the Project for Emerging Leaders at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University, and the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She is a non-resident senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London and chair of the Nuclear Deterrence External Advisory Board at Sandia National Laboratories. Ms. Bunn served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy (DASD/NMD) from 2013 to early 2017. Responsibilities included defining requirements for future capabilities, reviewing and adjusting operational planning, and leading extended deterrence discussions with allies. Prior to being appointed DASD/NMD, Ms. Bunn was a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Center for Strategic Research at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, where she headed a project on future strategic concepts. Ms. Bunn, a 1988 graduate of the National War College, received an MA from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in 1980. She was a Fulbright Scholar at the Université de Neuchâtel, Switzerland, in 1974–1975, after graduating from the University of Georgia with a BA in international political communications.

NANCY J. COOKE is a professor of human systems engineering and the director of the Center for Human and Artificial Intelligence and Robot Teaming at Arizona State University. She is trained as a cognitive psychologist and has been doing research on assessing teamwork for nearly 25 years. Dr. Cooke received her BA in psychology from George Mason University in 1981 and her MA and PhD in cognitive psychology from New Mexico State University in 1983 and 1987, respectively. Dr. Cooke chaired the National Academies’ Board on Human-Systems Integration from 2012 to 2016 and was a member of the consensus study report Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage published in 2006.

RAYMOND JEANLOZ is a professor of Earth and planetary science and astronomy at the University of California, Berkeley, and the Annenberg Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. In addition to his scientific research on the evolution of planetary interiors and properties of materials at high pressures, he works at the interface between science and policy in areas related to national and international security, resources and the environment, and education. Dr. Jeanloz is a member of the JASON group that provides technical advice to the U.S. government and chairs the National Academies’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control. He has served on the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board and is past chair of the National Academies’ Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. He is an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), the American Geophysical Union, the American Physical Society, and the Mineralogical Society of America. Dr. Jeanloz holds a PhD from the California Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

RICHARD W. MIES is the chief executive officer of The Mies Group, Ltd., a consulting corporation that provides strategic planning and risk assessment advice on international security, energy, and defense issues. He completed a distinguished 35-year career as a nuclear submariner in the U.S. Navy and commanded U.S. Strategic Command for 4 years prior to retirement in 2002. He served as a senior vice president of the Science Applications International Corporation from 2002 to 2007. He also served as the chair of the Department of Defense Threat Reduction Advisory Committee from 2004 to 2010 and as vice chair of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board. He presently serves as the chair of the Strategic Advisory Group of the U.S. Strategic Command and is a member of the board of governors of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and a member of the National Academies’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control. He completed post-graduate education at Oxford University, the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, and Harvard University.

GREGORY S. PARNELL is a professor of practice in industrial engineering in the Department of Industrial Engineering and the director of the Master of Science in Operations Management (the university’s largest graduate program) and Master of Science in Engineering Management programs at the University of Arkansas. His research focuses on decision analysis, risk analysis, systems engineering, and resource allocation for defense; intelligence; homeland security; and environmental management. He is a professor emeritus at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. Previously, he served as a professor of systems engineering at West Point, a distinguished visiting professor at the U.S. Air Force Academy, an associate professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, and a department head at the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Parnell is a former president of the Decision Analysis Society of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS) and of the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). He has also served as the editor of the Journal of Military Operations Research. Dr. Parnell has participated in four National Academies’ committees. He chaired the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis (2008) and the Review of the Inspection Programs for Offshore Oil and Gas Operations (2021). He was a member of the Committee on Improving Metrics for the Department of Defense Cooperative Threat Reduction Program (2011) and the Committee on Evaluating the Effectiveness of the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture (2013). He is a fellow of International Committee for Systems Engineering, INFORMS, MORS, and the Society for Decision Professionals. He received his BS in aerospace engineering from the University of Buffalo, his ME in industrial and systems engineering from the University of Florida, his MS in systems management from the University of Southern California, and his PhD in engineering-economic systems from Stanford University. Dr. Parnell is a retired Air Force Colonel and a graduate of the Industrial College of the Armed Forces.

SCOTT D. SAGAN is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, the Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation, and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute, all at Stanford University. He also serves as chair of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ Committee on International Security Studies. Before joining the Stanford faculty, Dr. Sagan was a lecturer in the Department of Government at Harvard University and served as special assistant to the director of the Organization of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is a scholar of nuclear issues and is the author, among other works, of Moving Targets: Nuclear Strategy and National Security (1989); The Limits of Safety: Organizations, Accidents, and Nuclear Weapons (1993); and, with co-author Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate (2012). Published articles include “Just and Unjust Nuclear Deterrence,” Ethics and International Affairs (2023); “Kettles of Hawks: Public Opinion on the Nuclear Taboo and Noncombatant Immunity in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Israel,” with Janina Dill and Benjamin A. Valentino, in Security Studies (2022) ;and, with Allen Weiner, “The Rule of Law and the Role of Strategy in U.S. Nuclear Doctrine,” in International Security (2021). In 2017, Dr. Sagan received the International Studies Association’s Susan Strange Award, which recognizes the scholar whose “singular intellect, assertiveness, and insight most challenge conventional wisdom and intellectual and organizational

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

complacency” in the international studies community. He was the recipient of the National Academy of Sciences’ William and Katherine Estes Award in 2015 for his work addressing the risks of nuclear weapons use and the causes of nuclear proliferation.

HENRY H. WILLIS is a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Dr. Willis’s recent work analyzes terrorism warning indicators; border security efforts; critical infrastructure resilience; and national preparedness to chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological attacks. He is an active contributor to policy research and is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Risk Sciences Committee of the Society for Risk Analysis. Through his work he testified before Congress; served on several committees of the National Academies; advised government agencies across the United States, Europe, Australia, and the United Arab Emirates; and published dozens of journal articles, reports, and op-eds on applying risk analysis to homeland and national security policy. His work in homeland security policy evolved from his work on program evaluation at the White House Office of Management and Budget and infrastructure design as a water and wastewater engineer. He earned his PhD in engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.

ALYSON G. WILSON is the associate vice chancellor for National Security and Special Research Initiatives at North Carolina State University (NC State). She is also a professor in the Department of Statistics and the principal investigator for the Laboratory for Analytic Sciences. She is a fellow of the American Statistical Association and AAAS. Her research interests include statistical reliability, Bayesian methods, and the application of statistics to problems in defense and national security. Prior to joining NC State, Dr. Wilson was a research staff member at the Institute for Defense Analyses’ Science and Technology Policy Institute in Washington, DC (2011–2013); an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Iowa State University (2008–2011); a technical staff member in the Statistical Sciences Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), where she continues as a guest scientist; and a senior statistician and operations research analyst with Cowboy Programming Resources (1995–1999). Dr. Wilson is the winner of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security Distinguished Achievement Award (2018), NC State Alumni Association Outstanding Research Award (2017), and the Army Wilks Memorial Award (2015). In addition to numerous publications, Dr. Wilson has co-authored a book, Bayesian Reliability, and has co-edited two other books, Statistical Methods in Counterterrorism: Game Theory, Modeling, Syndromic Surveillance and Biometric Authentication and Modern Statistical and Mathematical Methods in Reliability. She has participated in several previous National Academies’ studies, including the Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis. Dr. Wilson received her PhD in statistics from Duke University.

PHILIP D. ZELIKOW is a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the White Burkett Miller Professor of History at the University of Virginia. His scholarship focuses on critical episodes in American and world history. An attorney and former career diplomat who has served at all levels of U.S. government, his federal service includes work in the five administrations from Reagan through Obama. He has also led bipartisan commissions, serving as the executive director of the 9/11 Commission and, before that, as the executive director of the Carter-Ford National Commission on Federal Election Reform, and most recently, director of the Covid Crisis Group, which produced Lessons from the Covid War: An Investigative Report.

CONSULTANTS

DAVID L. BANKS is a professor of the practice of statistics at Duke University. Prior to this, he worked for the National Institute of Standards and Technology, served as the chief statistician of the Department

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

of Transportation, and worked for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Dr. Banks was the coordinating editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association and co-founded the journal Statistics and Public Policy; he also co-founded the American Statistical Association’s Section on National Defense and Homeland Security. He served as the president of the Classification Society and has twice served on the board of directors of the American Statistical Association. He is currently the president of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics and a fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. Dr. Banks recently won the American Statistical Association’s Founders Award. His research areas include models for dynamic networks, dynamic text networks, adversarial risk analysis (i.e., Bayesian behavioral game theory), human rights statistics, agent-based models, forensics, and certain topics in high-dimensional data analysis. Dr. Banks holds a BA in anthropology from the University of Virginia (UVA) and master’s degrees in mathematics and statistics and a PhD in statistics from the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

MADHAV V. MARATHE is a distinguished professor in biocomplexity, the division director of the Networks, Simulation Science and Advanced Computing Division at the Biocomplexity Institute and Initiative, and a professor in the Department of Computer Science at UVA. His research interests are in network science, computational epidemiology, artificial intelligence, foundations of computing, socially coupled system science, and high-performance computing. Over the past 25 years, he and his colleagues have developed scalable computational methods to study the social, economic, and health impacts of large-scale natural and human-initiated disasters. Those tools and methods have been used in more than 50 case studies to inform and assess various policy questions pertaining to planning and response in the event of such disasters. Before joining UVA, Dr. Marathe held positions at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University and LANL and was the inaugural George Michael fellow at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. He is a fellow of AAAS, the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, the Association for Computing Machinery, and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. He holds a PhD in computer science from the State University of New York at Albany.

PAUL SLOVIC is the president of the research institute Decision Research, which he co-founded with Sarah Lichtenstein and Baruch Fischhoff in 1976. He has been a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon since 1986. Dr. Slovic and his colleagues worldwide have developed methods to describe risk perceptions and measure their impacts on individuals, industry, and society. His recent research examines “psychic numbing” and the failure to respond to global threats from genocide and nuclear war. Dr. Slovic is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis, from which he received a Distinguished Contribution Award in 1991. In 1993, he received the Distinguished Scientific Contribution Award from the American Psychological Association, and in 1995, he received the Outstanding Contribution to Science Award from the Oregon Academy of Science. Dr. Slovic has received honorary doctorates from the Stockholm School of Economics (1996) and the University of East Anglia (2005). He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2015 and the National Academy of Sciences in 2016. He received the 2022 Bower Award and Prize, given by The Franklin Institute for foundational and theoretical contributions to the study of decision making. Dr. Slovic has served on numerous committees of the National Academies, including those that produced the reports Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (1983) and Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (1996). He received his BA from Stanford University and his MA and PhD in psychology from the University of Michigan.

STAFF

JENNIFER (JENNY) HEIMBERG has been a senior program officer at the National Academies since 2011. She is currently the director for the Strategic Council for Research Excellence, Integrity, and Trust. In addition, she has directed studies related to nuclear security, non-proliferation, and nuclear

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×

environmental cleanup. Other topics include reproducibility and replicability in science (Reproducibility and Replicability in Science, 2019) and estimating the costs of climate damages (Valuing Climate Damages: Updating the Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide, 2017). Prior to coming to the National Academies, she was a principal professor staff scientist and worked as a program manager at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. She received a BS cum laude in physics from Georgetown University, a BSEE from Catholic University of America, and a PhD in physics from Northwestern University.

MICHAEL JANICKE is a senior program officer on the Nuclear and Radiation Studies Board at the National Academies. Dr. Janicke graduated from Rice University with a BS in chemical engineering and continued his education at the University of California, Santa Barbara, where he earned his PhD in chemical engineering. Following his studies, Dr. Janicke was an Alexander von Humboldt Fellow at the Max Planck Institute for Carbon Research in Mülheim an der Ruhr. While in Germany, he worked with Professor Ferdi Schüth, former vice president of the German National Science Foundation. In 2000, Dr. Janicke returned to New Mexico as a postdoctoral fellow at LANL and became a staff member in 2002. Most recently he was the center director for REFOCUS, the Resonance Center for Chemical Signatures, and spearheaded efforts in developing new methods to detect chemical threat agents and synthetic opioids at border and airport checkpoints using magnetic resonance techniques. At LANL, he was also involved in several programmatic studies for Enhanced Surveillance Campaigns and Lifetime Extension Programs for the weapons community, participated in NA-22 projects analyzing funded research programs across the Department of Energy complex, and assisted in addressing chemical questions associated with the Medical Isotope and Basic Energy Sciences Heavy Element programs.

BLAKE REICHMUTH is an associate program officer currently with the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics at the National Academies. Mr. Reichmuth began his career at the National Academies in 2018 with the Board on Health Care Services in the Health and Medicine Division. He received his MS in mathematical sciences and his BA in mathematics from George Mason University. While working on his MS he also contributed to research at George Mason University’s Biomedical Research Laboratory and assisted with the 2020 report Differences in Transcriptional Dynamics Between T-cells and Macrophages as Determined by a Three-State Mathematical Model.

MICHELLE K. SCHWALBE is the director of the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics and the National Materials and Manufacturing Board at the National Academies. She first joined the National Academies in 2010 as a Christine Mirzayan Science & Technology Policy Fellow. She previously held positions at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory working on computing and mathematics research topics. Dr. Schwalbe has a PhD in mechanical engineering from Northwestern University, where she researched Bayesian uncertainty quantification for biomedical materials models and received an MS in engineering science and applied mathematics and a BS in applied mathematics specializing in computing from the University of California, Los Angeles.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 23
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 24
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 25
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 26
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 27
Suggested Citation:"Appendix A: Biographies of Committee Members, Consultants, and Staff." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27393.
×
Page 28
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The Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism was established and managed by the National Academies of Sciences, Medicine, and Engineering in response to a congressional mandate to independently explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the public, abbreviated version of the classified report.

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