Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth's Past and Future (2024)

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PROGRESS AND PRIORITIES IN OCEAN DRILLING IN SEARCH OF EARTH’S PAST AND FUTURE 2025–2035 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences for the National Science Foundation Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Consensus Study Report PREPUBLICATION COPY 

NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 This activity was supported by a contract between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-XXXXX-X International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-XXXXX-X Digital Object Identifier: https://doi.org/10.17226/27414 This publication is available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2024 by the National Academy of Sciences. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and National Academies Press and the graphical logos for each are all trademarks of the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Progress and Priorities in Ocean Drilling: In Search of Earth’s Past and Present. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27414. 

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2025–2035 DECADAL SURVEY OF OCEAN SCIENCES FOR THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION TUBA OZKAN-HALLER (Co-Chair), Oregon State University JAMES (JIM) YODER (Co-Chair), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (emeritus) LIHINI ALUWIHARE, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego MONA BEHL, University of Georgia MARK BEHN, Boston College BRAD deYOUNG, Canadian Integrated Ocean Observing System CARLOS GARCIA-QUIJANO, University of Rhode Island PETER GIRGUIS, Harvard University LEILA J. HAMDAN, University of Southern Mississippi MARCIA ISAKSON, Applied Research Laboratories, The University of Texas at Austin JASON LINK, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ALLISON MILLER, Schmidt Ocean Institute S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska Fairbanks RICHARD W. MURRAY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution STEPHEN R. PALUMBI, Stanford University ELLA (JOSIE) QUINTRELL, Integrated Ocean Observing System (retired) YOSHIMI (SHIMI) M. RII, Hawaiʻi Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawaiʻi KRISTEN ST. JOHN, James Madison University SAMUEL KERSEY STURDIVANT, INSPIRE Environmental AJIT SUBRAMANIAM, Columbia University MAYA TOLSTOY, University of Washington College of the Environment SHANNON VALLEY, Vistant JAMES ZACHOS, University of California, Santa Cruz Study Staff KELLY OSKVIG, Senior Program Officer LEIGHANN MARTIN, Associate Program Officer (until January 2024) ZOE ALEXANDER, Program Assistant ERIK YANISKO, Program Assistant (until January 2024) Sponsor NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Prepublication Copy v 

OCEAN STUDIES BOARD CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, Chair, University of South Carolina, Columbia MARK ABBOTT, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ROSIE ‘ANOLANI ALEGADO, University of Hawaiʻi, Manoa CAROL ARNOSTI, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill AMY BOWER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts LISA CAMPBELL, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina THOMAS S. CHANCE, ASV Global, LLC (retired), Broussard, Louisiana DANIEL COSTA, University of California, Santa Cruz JOHN DELANEY, University of Washington (retired), Seattle TIMOTHY GALLAUDET, Ocean STL Consulting, LLC, North Beach, Maryland SCOTT GLENN, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey MARCIA ISAKSON, The University of Texas at Austin LEKELIA JENKINS, Arizona State University, Tempe NANCY KNOWLTON (NAS), Smithsonian Institution (retired), Washington, DC ANTHONY MACDONALD, Monmouth University, West Long Branch, New Jersey GALEN MCKINLEY, Columbia University, Palisades, New York THOMAS MILLER, University of Maryland, Solomons S. BRADLEY MORAN (Ex-Officio), University of Alaska, Fairbanks RUTH M. PERRY, Shell Exploration & Production Company, Houston, Texas DEAN ROEMMICH (NAE), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (retired), Solana Beach, California JAMES SANCHIRICO, University of California, Davis MARK J. SPALDING, The Ocean Foundation, Washington, DC PAUL WILLIAMS, Suquamish Tribe, Seattle, Washington Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director STACEE KARRAS, Senior Program Officer KELLY OSKVIG, Senior Program Officer CAROLINE BELL, Associate Program Officer LEIGHANN MARTIN, Associate Program Officer (until January 2024) THANH NGUYEN, Financial Business Partner DARRYL ACKER-CARTER, Research Associate SAFAH WYNE, Senior Program Assistant ZOE ALEXANDER, Program Assistant ERIK YANISKO, Program Assistant (until January 2024) Prepublication Copy vi 

Reviewers This consensus study report was reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine in making each published report as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets the institutional standards for quality, objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their review of this report: ANDREA AHRENS, Stantec BARBARA BEKINS, U.S. Geological Survey (NAE) JULIE HUBER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution BO BARKER JORGENSEN, Aarhus University (NAS) ADRIAN LAM, Binghampton University WILLIAM MILLER, University of Georgia MAUREEN RAYMO, Columbia University (NAS) DAMIAN SAFFER, University of Texas at Austin JOHN SHERVAIS, Utah State University Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of this report nor did they see the final draft before its release. The review of this report was overseen by ROBERT DUCE, Texas A&M University, and LARRY MAYER (NAE), University of New Hampshire. They were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with the standards of the National Academies and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Academies. Prepublication Copy vii 



Acknowledgments The committee thanks the following individuals for their contributions during the study process, especially for enriching and informing the discussions at the open session meetings of the committee: James Allen (National Science Foundation [NSF]), Jennifer Biddle (University of Delaware), Donna Blackman (University of California, Santa Cruz), Stefanie Brachfeld (Montclair State University), Carl Brenner (U.S. Science Support Program), Steven D’Hondt (University of Rhode Island), Patrick Fulton (Cornell University), Sean Gulick (University of Texas), David Hodell (University of Cambridge), Celli Hull (Yale University), Minoru Ikehara (Kochi University), Fumio Inagaki (Japanese Agency for Marine- Earth Science and Technology), Kevin Johnson (NSF), Brandi Kiel Reese (University of South Alabama), Anthony Koppers (Oregon State University), Larry Krissek (The Ohio State University), Jessica Labonté (Texas A&M University, Galveston), Adriane Lam (Binghamton University), Chris Lowery (University of Texas), Mitch Malone (Texas A&M University), Kathie Marsaglia (California State University, Northridge), Robert McKay (Victoria University of Wellington), Lisa McNeil (Southampton University), Charna Meth (International Ocean Discovery Program Science Support Office), Heiko Palike (University of Bremen), Becky Robinson (University of Rhode Island), Yair Rosenthal (Rutgers University), Demian Saffer (University of Texas), Daniel Sigman (Princeton University), David Smith (University of Rhode Island), Chijun Sun (National Center for Atmospheric Research), Jason Sylvan (Texas A&M University), Allyson Tessin (Kent State University), Masako Tominaga (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), Maureen Walczak (Oregon State University), Allen Walker (NSF’s Technology, Innovation, and Partnership), Shelby Walker (NSF), and Trevor Williams (Texas A&M University). Their input was critical to the completion of the committee’s work. The committee would also like to thank our primary contact at NSF’s Division of Ocean Sciences, Jim McManus, for his efforts in developing and sponsoring this study and for providing important documents and support upon the committee’s request. Prepublication Copy ix 



Contents SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... 12 The Importance of Scientific Ocean Drilling, 12 A Critical Juncture, 13 Preparing for the Next Stage of Scientific Ocean Drilling, 17 Study Origin and Purpose, 21 Study Approach, 22 Report Organization, 22 2 A PRIMER ON SCIENTIFIC OCEAN DRILLING ....................................................................... 23 Terminology and Key Concepts, 23 IODP-2 Management Structure, 32 History of Ocean Drilling, 34 3 HIGH-PRIORITY SCIENCE AREAS: PROGRESS AND FUTURE NEEDS ............................ 39 Evaluating Progress Made Over the Last Decade, 39 Scientific Ocean Drilling Research Priorities, 41 Classification of Scientific Ocean Drilling–Supported Research, 77 Connections To National Priorities and Previous Recommendations To NSF, 80 4 NEEDS FOR ACCOMPLISHING THE SCIENCE PRIORITIES ............................................... 83 Realities of Existing and Emerging Drilling Technologies, 83 Opportunities For Using Existing Cores, Boreholes, and Data, 86 Additional Infrastructure Needs, 93 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................................................... 97 APPENDIX A: COMMITTEE STATEMENT OF TASK.................................................................. 107 APPENDIX B: COMMITTEE MEETING AGENDA AND PARTICIPANT LIST ....................... 109 APPENDIX C: COMMITTEE BIOGRAPHIES ................................................................................. 115 Prepublication Copy xi 



Acronyms and Abbreviations AMOC Atlantic meridional ocean circulation ARF U.S. Academic Research Fleet DSDP Deep Sea Drilling Project DSOS Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences ECORD European Consortium for Ocean Research Drilling eODP Extending Ocean Drilling Pursuits EPO expedition project manager FAIR findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable GMSL global mean sea level GNSS global navigation satellite system HLAPC half-length advanced piston corer HRT hydraulic release tool ICDP International Continental Scientific Drilling Program IODP-1 Integrated Ocean Drilling Program IODP-2 International Ocean Discovery Program JRSO JOIDES Resolution Science Operator kyr thousand years LEAP legacy asset project MARUM Center for Marine Environmental Sciences (German) MSP mission-specific platform Ma million years ago myr million years NanTroSEIZE Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment NSF National Science Foundation OCAP Ocean Climate Action Plan ODP Ocean Drilling Program OMZ oxygen minimum zone OOI Ocean Observatories Initiative PETM Paleocene–Eocene thermal maximum PMIP Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project ppm parts per million Pg picogram SMR Science Mission Requirements (report of the U.S. Science Support Program) STEM science, technology, engineering, and mathematics Prepublication Copy xiii 

Acronyms and Abbreviations SZ4D Subduction Zones in four Dimensions UNOLS University-National Oceanographic Laboratory System WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet Prepublication Copy xiv