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2 SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The principal conclusions and recommendations that have resulted from the deliberations of this Panel, which are expanded upon else- where in this report, may be summarized as follows: 1. To meet present and future national needs and to further the national contribution to GARP, we strongly recommend the immediate adoption and development of a coherent National Climatic Research Program (NCRP) with appropriate international coordination. The major subprograms of the NCRP are summarized in Recommendations 2, 3, and 4. 2. To perform the needed analysis of selected climatic data, includ- ing that from conventional instruments and satellites, historical records, and paleoclimatic data sources, we recommend the establishment of a Climatic Data Analysis Program (CDAP) as a subprogram of the NCRP. This programâs functions would be to facilitate and coordinate the preparation and maintenance of a comprehensive climatic data inven- tory, the development of selected climatic data banks, and the prepara- tion of suitable data analyses, based on both current and paleoclimatic data. To carry out these functions we recommend the development of new climatic data-analysis facilities with access to suitable computing and data processing and display equipment, as components of a national network for climatic data analysis. We envisage these facilities as work- ing closely with the various specialized climatic data depositories and 9
10 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATIC CHANGE as an essential mechanism for the successful execution of the CDAP and of related components of the overall national program. In response to immediate practical needs, we recommend the initia- tion and continued support of empirical and statistical studies of the impacts of climatic change on manâs food, water, and energy supplies. Support should also be given to studies of the broader social and eco- nomic consequences of climatic variations. 3. To acquire the needed data on the important boundary conditions and physical processes of climate, we recommend the development of a global Climatic Index Monitoring Program (CIMP) as a second subpro- gram of the NcrP. This programâs functions would include the monitor- ing and collection, on appropriate climatic time and space scales, of data on the components of the global heat balance (including the solar constant), the ocean-surface temperature and the thermal structure of the surface mixed layer, the extent of ice and snow cover and other land- surface characteristics, the atmospheric composition and_ turbidity, anthropogenic processes, and, if possible, ocean-current transports and components of the hydrological cycle. This program will require a num- ber of new observational schemes in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and on land and will rely heavily on environmental satellites. We anticipate that such data will also have important uses on a real-time basis and that the cimpP could serve as a national watchdog for climatic change. 4. To accelerate research on climatic variation, and to support the needed development of climatic modeling on a broad front, we recom- mend the establishment of a Climatic Modeling and Applications Pro- gram (CMAP) as a third subprogram of the NcRP. In this program, emphasis should be given to the development of coupled global climate models (CGCMâs) of the combined atmospheric and oceanic general circulation and to the improvement of the modelsâ treatment of clouds, mesoscale processes, and boundary-layer phenomena. Attention should also be given to the processes of airâsea interaction and to treatment of the oceanâs surface layer, sea ice, and the oceanic mesoscale phe- nomena. We note the importance of extended model integrations to determine the annual and interannual variability of simulated climates and urge that appropriate studies be made of the sensitivity of simulated climates to physical and numerical uncertainties in the modelsâ formulation. To provide the basis for the needed further modeling of climatic variation, we recommend the development and support of a wide variety of statistical-dynamical and other parameterized climate models. We note the importance of calibration in such models and urge that ap- propriate schemes be developed to permit extended climatic simula- tions which include oceanic and cryospheric variables.
SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 11 To provide the needed further insight into the mechanisms of climatic variation, we recommend the application of climatic models in support of empirical and diagnostic studies, with particular attention to the roles of climatic feedback processes in the coupled oceanâatmosphere sys- tem, to the questions of climatic predictability and transitivity, and to the climatic effects of changes in the geophysical boundary conditions. To provide the needed reconstruction of past climates and to develop a broader calibration of climate models, we recommend the initiation and support of systematic efforts to reconstruct selected events and periods in the climatic history of the earth. This should include the ap- plication of the CGCMâs to simulate selected equilibrium paleoclimates and the use of statistical-dynamical or other parameterized climate models to infer the time-dependent evolution of the coupled atmosphereâ hydrosphere-cryosphere climatic system. To further the needed application of climatic models, we recommend the systematic exploration with suitable climate models of a variety of possible future climates, due either to natural or man-made causes. These should include determination of the likely effects of changes in solar radiation, land-surface character, cloudiness, pollution, and ice extent. We urge that efforts be made to extract consistent physical hypotheses from such experiments and that the necessary statistical controls be developed. To lay the basis for the needed assessment of the possibilities of long-range or climatic forecasting, we further recommend the applica- tion of climate models of all types in experimental integrations using observed initial and boundary conditions. Appropriate climatic statistics should be drawn from such integrations and compared with observation insofar as possible, in order to establish the modelsâ usefulness as long- range forecast tools. Initial emphasis should be given to the time periods of seasons to decades, for which there is presently the greatest practical need for scientifically based information. To assist in the performance of the needed research or climatic modeling and applications, we recommend that efforts be made to identify or form a number of cooperative research associations or cli- matic research consortia, which we view as natural and useful co- ordinating mechanisms for the effective performance and long-range stability of the NCRP. We further recommend that the period prior to 1980 be used to develop additional scientific and technical manpower through the establishment and support of fellowships in appropriate areas of climatic research. 5. In order to further the aims of the international GARP efforts directed to the problem of climate and climatic variation, we recommend the adoption and development of an International Climatic Research
12 UNDERSTANDING CLIMATIC CHANGE Program (IcRP). By the very nature of climate, the U.S. national pro- gram is considered an integral part of the ICRP, along with the climatic research programs of other nations. In view of the differences of the observational time scales and of the variables involved in weather fore- casting and climatic studies, and in view of the latterâs broadly inter- disciplinary character, we visualize such a program being the logical successor to GARP in matters relating to climate. Recognizing that the elements of the NCRP recommended above could equally well apply to an international program, we suggest that they be considered by the appropriate international organizations. To help provide the observational framework needed for climatic research, we recommend the designation of the period 1980-2000 as International Climatic Decades (IcD). During this period, efforts should be made to secure broad international cooperation in the collection, analysis, and exchange of all available climatic data, including con- ventional observations and special data sets of particular climatic in- terest (such as during droughts and following volcanic eruptions). Dur- ing the ICD we also recommend the initiation and support of regional climatic studies in order to describe and model local climatic anomalies of special interest. We further recommend development of appropriate national and in- ternational training programs and educational activities in order to promote the participation of all nations in climatic research. 6. To provide the global paleoclimatic data needed for the recon- struction of past climates, we recommend the development of an Inter- national Paleoclimatic Data Network (IPDN) as a subprogram of the ICRP. This program should aim to assist each nation in the cooperative identification, extraction, analysis, monitoring, and exchange of its unique paleoclimatic records, such as those from tree rings, soil types, fossil pollen, and data on sea and lake levels.