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Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
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References

Aeschelman, J., et al. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Joint Staff—J. Aeschleman, H. Burgess, S. Pisarcik, S. Dunn). August 29. The Pentagon, Washington, DC.

Apostolakis, G. 2021. Briefing to the committee, Phase I. Meeting on April 23.

Bentz, J. 2022. Briefing to the committee. Meeting 4. December 4.

Biden, J.R. 2022. “National Security Strategy.” October. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wpcontent/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf.

Buddemeier, B. 2010. “Reducing the Consequences of a Nuclear Detonation: Recent Research.” The Bridge 40(2):28–38.

Bush, G.W. 2002. “The National Security Strategy of the United States of America.” September. Washington, DC. https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/nss/nss2002.pdf?ver=oyVN99aEnrAWijAc_O5eiQ%3d%3d.

Caskey, S. 2021. Briefing to the committee, Phase I. Meeting on April 23.

CJCS (Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Staff). 2021. “No-Strike and the Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology.” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Staff Instructions. CJCSI 3160.01D. May 21. Washington, DC. Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI).

CJCS. 2022. “Joint Staff Risk Methodologies.” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Manual. CJCSM 3105.01A. October.

Clinton, W. 1994. “A National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement.” Washington, DC. https://history.defense.gov/Portals/70/Documents/nss/nss1994.pdf.

Collins, K. 2022. “U.S. Quietly Planning Potential Responses in Case Putin Takes Extreme Step in Ukraine.” CNN Politics, March 25. https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/24/politics/us-planning-on-how-to-counter-putin/index.html.

Cooper, J. 2023. Briefing to the committee (PANTHR Program Manager, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security). Meeting 5. January.

DHS (Department of Homeland Security). 2021. “Unclassified Remarks for Phase 1.” (DHS, Phase I, 2021).

DHS. 2022. “Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Strategic Risk Assessment Summary.” October 21.

DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency). 2009. A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis. 2nd edition. Directorate for Analysis Research. March. https://www.dia.mil/FOIA/FOIA-Electronic-Reading-Room/FileId/161442.

DoD (Department of Defense). 2022. “National Defense Strategy.” https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSESTRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF.

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Fullerton, C. 2023. Briefing to the committee (Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation). Meeting 5. January.

Gottemoeller, R. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Rose Gottemoeller, Department of State and United Nations [retired]). Meeting 4. December.

Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
×

Grabo, C.M. 2002. Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning (J. Goldman, ed.). Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, Joint Military Intelligence College.

Granholm, J.M. 2023. “Russia’s Ongoing Assault on Nuclear Safety and Security Endangers the World.” The Hill, March 14. https://thehill.com/opinion/congress-blog/3900184-russias-ongoing-assault-on-nuclear-safety-and-security-endangers-the-world.

IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). 2022. IAEA Director General, “Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in Light of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 (2015).” September 7. GOV/2022/39. gov2022-39.pdf (iaea.org).

IOM (Institute of Medicine). 2013. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/12568.

IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). 2022. “Summary for Policymakers” (H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, and A. Okem, eds.). In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, and B. Rama, eds.). Cambridge, UK, and New York: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.001.

Johnson, R. 2023. Briefing to the committee (Richard Johnson, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Nuclear Policy). Meeting 6. March 23.

Kurtz, M. 2022. Remarks to the committee (Matt Kurtz, Office of Secretary of Defense Policy). Meeting 1. August.

Leslie, C. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Caryn Leslie, Central Intelligence Agency [retired], and director, National Academies’ Intelligence Studies Board). Meeting 4. December.

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Looney, H. 2021. Briefing to the committee, Phase I. Meeting on July 13, 2021.

Lowenthal, M. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Micah Lowenthal, director, National Academies’ Committee on International Security and Arms Control). Meeting 1. August.

Lucast, R., et al. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Rebecca Lucast, Amanda Weaver, Sarah Bender, Dan Migrone, Donald Puglisi, Drew Nichols [director, Nuclear Materials Information Program]; DOE-IN, Nuclear Materials Information Program). Meeting 4. December.

Mattis, J. 2022. Briefing to the committee (General [retired] James Mattis). Meeting 4. December.

Mays, D. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Dennis Mays, Missile Defense Agency, Director for Engineering). Meeting 1. August.

Miles, A. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Aaron Miles, Senior Advisor, Office of Strategic Stability and Deterrence Affairs, Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance, Department of State). Meeting 4. December.

Murphy, J. 2022. Briefing to the committee (National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Officer for Weapons of Mass Destruction). December 4.

Nakashima, E., and A. Parker. 2022. “Inside the White House: Preparations for a Russian Invasion.” Washington Post. February 14.

NASEM (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine). 2021. Restoring and Improving Nuclear Forensics to Support Attribution and Deterrence: Public Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26167.

NASEM. 2022. Protecting U.S. Technological Advantage. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26647.

NASEM. 2023a. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/26609. (Phase I report).

NASEM. 2023b. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/27393.

NDSC (National Defense Strategy Commission). 2018. Providing for the Common Defense: The Assessment and Recommendations of the National Defense Strategy Commission. Washington, DC: United Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-thecommon-defense.pdf.

Nichols, J., et al. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Major Genereal John Nichols et al., USSTRATCOM). Meeting 2. October.

Nicolaidis, C. 2022. Briefing to the committee (Costa Nicolaidis, Department of State, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation). Meeting 4. December.

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Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
×

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Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
×
Page 30
Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
×
Page 31
Suggested Citation:"References." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version). Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27745.
×
Page 32
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Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II (Expanded Abbreviated Report of the CUI Version) Get This Book
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The United States and the world face serious threats to nuclear stability and peace, now and in the coming decades. Within the nuclear arena, U.S. policy makers will need to make strategic decisions related to nuclear risks to assist with long-term planning as well as responding in real time to unanticipated events. The occurrence of unanticipated nuclear events is expected to increase as more countries develop, expand, or field nuclear energy capability; more countries consider development of nuclear weapon capability and new nuclear weapon states emerge; and nuclear weapon states expand their nuclear arsenals.

At the request of the Department of Defense, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established and managed the Committee on Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism to explore U.S. government methods for assessing nuclear war and nuclear terrorism risks and how those assessments are used to develop strategy and policy. This publication is the unclassified Phase 2 version of the final classified report. Risk Analysis Methods for Nuclear War and Nuclear Terrorism: Phase II builds on an earlier Phase I unclassified report. This book expands upon the use of analytical methods to assess the risks of nuclear terrorism and nuclear war and the role such approaches may play in U.S. security strategy.

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