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Suggested Citation:"Summary." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27827.
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1   New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide The transportation field is undergoing a transformative change in response to several technological innovations, resulting in the emergence and widespread adoption of new mobility options (NMOs) such as shared micromobility, transportation networking com- panies (TNCs), and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The primary tools avail- able to assist practitioners in understanding the potential impacts of NMOs on future travel demand are travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs). However, many of the current generation TDFMs do not explicitly consider NMOs in their frameworks. This guide will assist practitioners at departments of transportation (DOTs) and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in examining the impact of NMOs on their jurisdictions. Chapter 2 identifies different data-driven travel demand metrics that will allow agencies to identify the direction and potential magnitudes of NMO impacts on different compo- nents of a TDFM. The guide provides practical approaches for agency personnel to conduct data-driven evaluation of the impact of NMOs on travel demand in their jurisdiction. The demand metrics provided will allow agency personnel to identify the potential TDFM components (if any) that are affected by NMOs. Chapter 3 focuses on the approach to be employed for updating TDFM components. The guide provides step-by-step instructions on how the different TDFM components can be updated. Using synthetic data (in the absence of real-world data), the guide illustrates the various updates necessary for TDFM compo- nents. As it is not feasible to illustrate changes to all TDFM components, the guide compiles use case examples for updating TDFMs in response to the growing presence of NMOs. The three use case examples are (a) household vehicle ownership, (b) household trip rates, and (c) mode choice. The use case examples are illustrated by using real-world data for the base scenario and simulated data for the NMO scenarios. The various datasets generated and the scripts employed for model re-estimation are included along with a step-by-step tutorial for users (see the appendix). Given the significant professional and financial resources required to update TDFMs, obtaining an estimate of NMO impact can allow practitioners to make judicious decisions on TDFM updates. Agency personnel are encouraged to use the data- driven procedures provided along with their jurisdictional experience to finalize decisions on their TDFM update process. S U M M A R Y

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Emerging transportation technologies and shared mobility services, or new mobility options (NMOs), are affecting travel behavior and demand. NMOs may include shared micromobility, transportation networking companies (TNCs), and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). As NMOs grow in availability and use, transportation planners and decision-makers need to be able to understand how to harness positive and mitigate negative impacts.

NCHRP Research Report 1113: New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, provides travel demand modeling practitioners with ways to consider NMOs in travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs) - one of the primary tools available to understand potential impacts and future uncertainties.

Supplemental to the report are NCHRP Web-Only Document 399: Developing a Guide for New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling; datasets of Use Case 1: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Household Vehicle Ownership Use Case; Use Case 2: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Household Trip Rates Use Case; Use Case 3: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Mode Choice Use Case; an Implementation of Research Findings and Products document; and a PowerPoint presentation of the research.

Any software included is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively “TRB”) be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.


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