National Academies Press: OpenBook

New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide (2024)

Chapter: Chapter 4 - Summary and Guide Adoption

« Previous: Chapter 3 - TDFM Updates
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Summary and Guide Adoption." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27827.
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Page 22
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Suggested Citation:"Chapter 4 - Summary and Guide Adoption." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2024. New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27827.
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Page 23

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22 Summary and Guide Adoption 4.1 Summary While the emergence of NMOs has contributed to significant changes to mobility and travel demand patterns, these impacts are not uniformly distributed across the nation. The observed impact of NMOs can vary significantly due to existing transportation patterns and variation in NMO adoption and usage rates. Given the substantial resources required to modify TDFMs, it is important that agencies examine whether and how NMOs influence mobility and travel demand in their jurisdiction prior to updating TDFMs. This project was motivated by the need to provide direction to DOT and MPO personnel on incorporating NMOs into TDFMs. This document provides guidance to practitioners on (a) procedures to examine the impact of NMOs on travel demand and (b) procedures to update TDFM components. The guide is intended to serve as a useful resource for agency personnel considering the impact of NMOs on travel demand. Chapter 2 identifies different data-driven travel demand metrics that will allow agencies to identify the direction and the potential magnitudes of NMO impacts on different components of TDFMs. The data-driven performance metrics can be gener- ated by analyzing jurisdiction-specific data. The guide provides practical approaches for agency personnel to conduct data-driven evaluation of the impact of NMOs on travel demand in the jurisdiction. The demand metrics provided in the guide will allow agency personnel to identify the TDFM components that may be affected by NMOs. Chapter 3 focuses on the approach to be employed for updating TDFM components. The guide provides step-by-step instructions on how the different TDFM components can be updated. Using synthetic data, the guide illustrates the various updates necessary for TDFM components. As it is not possible to reflect updates to all TDFM components, the guide compiles three use case examples for updating TDFMs in response to the growing presence of NMOs. The three use case examples cover (a) household vehicle ownership, (b) household trip rates, and (c) mode choice. The use case examples are illus- trated by using real-world data for the base scenario and simulated data for the NMO scenarios. The various datasets generated and the scripts employed for model calibration are included in the appendix, with a step-by-step tutorial for users. Given the significant professional and financial resources required to update TDFMs, obtaining an estimate of NMO impact can allow practitioners to make judicious decisions on TDFM updates. Agency personnel are encouraged to consider the data-driven procedures provided along with their jurisdictional experience to finalize decisions on their TDFM update process. 4.2 Additional Resources Three use case examples provide direction on how to update the different TDFM components. The examples are defined and laid out using real-word data for the base year and simulated data for future scenarios. However, practitioners should note that it is not possible to provide C H A P T E R   4

Summary and Guide Adoption 23   direction on specific model components for every jurisdiction. While the use case examples provide experience with a subset of model components, agency personnel and consultants will need to determine the exact update process for the jurisdiction’s TDFM. Depending on the specific components selected for modification, the scope of work for the TDFM update could vary significantly. Agency personnel will need to carefully consider the resources required to make the various modifications, including the resources for (a) data compilation and variable customization, (b) re-estimation of the model functional form for new data, and (c) potential changes to modeling structure due to NMO presence. While the TDFM update process is still in its infancy, agency personnel can draw on the efforts of other agencies in updating TDFMs with NMO-related components. The research team has identified five jurisdictions that have incorporated NMOs or suggested adjustments to operational TDFMs: (a) San Diego Associa- tion of Governments (activity-based model; San Diego Association of Governments, 2021); (b) North Carolina Research Triangle (trip-based model; Caliper Projections, 2021); (c) Puget Sound Regional Council (activity-based model; Childress et al., 2015); (d) Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (activity-based model; Vyas et al., 2019); and (e) the Virginia Department of Transportation (Travel Demand Modeling Policies and Procedures Manual; Virginia Depart- ment of Transportation, 2020). The research team’s summaries of these TDFMs are included in the associated conduct of research report, NCHRP Web-Only Document 399: Developing a Guide for New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling. These jurisdictions’ efforts can serve as resources for different agencies considering the TDFM update process.

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Emerging transportation technologies and shared mobility services, or new mobility options (NMOs), are affecting travel behavior and demand. NMOs may include shared micromobility, transportation networking companies (TNCs), and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). As NMOs grow in availability and use, transportation planners and decision-makers need to be able to understand how to harness positive and mitigate negative impacts.

NCHRP Research Report 1113: New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling: A Guide, from TRB's National Cooperative Highway Research Program, provides travel demand modeling practitioners with ways to consider NMOs in travel demand forecasting models (TDFMs) - one of the primary tools available to understand potential impacts and future uncertainties.

Supplemental to the report are NCHRP Web-Only Document 399: Developing a Guide for New Mobility Options in Travel Demand Forecasting and Modeling; datasets of Use Case 1: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Household Vehicle Ownership Use Case; Use Case 2: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Household Trip Rates Use Case; Use Case 3: Data, Code, and Tutorials for Mode Choice Use Case; an Implementation of Research Findings and Products document; and a PowerPoint presentation of the research.

Any software included is offered as is, without warranty or promise of support of any kind either expressed or implied. Under no circumstance will the National Academy of Sciences or the Transportation Research Board (collectively “TRB”) be liable for any loss or damage caused by the installation or operation of this product. TRB makes no representation or warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, in fact or in law, including without limitation, the warranty of merchantability or the warranty of fitness for a particular purpose, and shall not in any case be liable for any consequential or special damages.

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