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construction engineering o f f i c e perfbms no scheduling of work nor does i t par t ic ipate i n the Plans and Specif icat ion phase p n o r to contract award Phased-construction has become an inportant method f o r shortening the con- s t ruct ion time i n f a c i l i t i e s bu i ld ing With the consent of the Capital I n - vestment Comma.ttee, s i t e preparation and long-lead hardware procurements de- sign I S completed This procedure has allowed considerable shortening o f the acquisition-process Sequential operations had required a t o t a l elapsed time o f s ix ty to seventy-two months from i n i t i a t i o n o f planning to turnover o f f a c i l i t i e s Via the method o f phased-construction and a business-like approach to planning and budgeting, the t o t a l cycle time has been shortened to twenty-four t o twen ty -e i ^ t months This methodology has not been wi th - out fau l t s i n the eyes of the Construction Engineenng Division The con- s t ruc t ion o f f i c e pa r t i cu la r ly must remenber that a f a c i l i t y i s a prepared s i t e upon which rests medianization f o r handling and processing of mail which I S housed wi th in a bui ld ing she l l The responsib i l i ty f o r turnover o f an operating package to the Bureau o f Operations rests heavily with this^ De- partment Although the phased-construction approach does "biiy t ime", qiute l i t e r a l l y , the accelerated schedule i s purchased at a hig^ price Via t h i s method o f operations the diange orders per jcb have increased substantial ly I f a si9>enor job i s done m def in ing requirements and scheduling pre-contract a c i t v i t i e s , the npp le e f fec t and necessary change orders apparently inherent wi th phased construction can be greatly reduced I t i s understandable that the construction engineenng o f f i c e prefers the mechanization and bui ld ing re- quirements under one contract For acquisi t ion o f large f a c i l i t i e s the problems o f Congressional p o l i t i c s and pre-award c r i t e r i a cause costly time delays that i n h i b i t construction engineenng a c t i v i t i e s The regional o f f i ce s and regional construction engineers are i n charge o f both design and construction for minor f a c i l i t i e s construction, repair , and mainten- ance These people are o f hig^ calibre and are graduate engineers The f i e l d ^ o f f i c e s , as matter o f course, employ T i t l e I I inspection by the design architect- engineer Contract enployees handle the f i e l d resident reqturements f o r manage- ment and on-site supervision 7 Perspective Regardless o f the inprovements and changes being incorporated by the POD biisiness approaches, the astronomical benefits purported to be m the o f f i n g are not to be easily achieved The l i s t i n g below indicates forecast mail volumes Fiscal Year GNP i n 1958 $ ( b i l l i o n ) Mail Volume ( b i l l i o n ) 1969 720 82 0 1970 752 84 3 1971 785 86 3 1972 819 89 6 1973 855 92 5 1974 893 95 5 148
Fiscal Year GNP Nail Volume 1975 9 32 9 8 6 1976 9 73 lOl 9 1981 1,202 120 3 1991 1,779 166 5 l l ie growth m mail volume over the long term can be traced to some o f the same factors which influence GNP r i s e , namely, increasing percapita income, ejq>and- ing suburban sprawl, advancing population, higher education levels , and increased governmental involvement m national a c t i v i t i e s These environmental factors i n - dicate a new, or better ye t , a s h i f t m Post Off ice th inking to cope with the an- t i c ipa ted changes To handle the mail volume, the Post Off ice f a c i l i t i e s acqu].sition t^proach i s to look t o mechanization, p r imar i ly as the mode t o achieve inprovements,and bu i ld ing structures merely to house the a l l important mechanization The three summary points l i s t e d below impings \xpon the three business problem areas faced by the Post Of f ice and are abstracted from Bureau o f Planning and Marketing forecast data a The subuxban s h i f t o f population has important implications i n postal a c t i v i t i e s and costs The postal r e t a i l i n g a c t i v i t i e s w7 . l l fol low the now t r ad i t i ona l business s h i f t and move from the center c i t y to the siibuiban shopping centers The p robab i l i ty o f reducing r e t a i l out le t costs I S s ign i f ican t since smaller r e t a i l outlets and semi"automated and unattended self-service units can be of fe red at points close to the public i n the suburbs At the same time a reduction o f the large lobby-type c i t y f a c i l i t i e s i s possible I t i s apparent that the cost o f the r e t a i l i n g operation i s t i e d then to the nuid>er and complexity o f these smaller s a t e l l i t e units and has l i t t l e r e l a t i o n , regarding costs, to the volume o f mail The self-service uni t m r e t a i l i n g operations i s , therefore, the saving fac tor i n preventing an astron- omical r ise m r e t a i l i n g costs and i s forecast as s u f f i c i e n t to con- t a in the cost o f r e t a i l i n g to pa ra l l e l GNP growth b Delivery costs, l i k e r e t a i l i n g costs, are t i e d to the area coverage and are not as greatly influenced by volume or volume f luctuat ions as the labor-intensive functions o f delivery i t s e l f Frequency o f service has held at a stable one delivery per day m the past decade i n subuxban areas and i s expected to continue m th i s manner, however, decentral i- zation o f both governmental and commercial businesses from the c i t i e s to the siibuibs w i l l require these users to become accustomed to the same once-a-day frequency as the res ident ia l population Otherwise, the ob- vious drast ic r ise m labor costs would cause a sharp t o t a l cost i n - crease The annual costs o f ru ra l deliveries has declined as a percent- age o f overa l l costs As a t o t a l p ic tu re , i t i s forecast that c i t y d e l i v - ery costs w i l l n se u n t i l a point i s reached where the frequency o f c i t y delivery must be reduced, and labor-intensive costs o f delivery i n the subuxban areas w i l l continue to increase This cost represents a large, but not the primary, increase i n t o t a l postal cost c Unlike the r e t a i l i n g and delivery funct ions, the postal processing costs are d i r ec t ly t i e d to the volume of mail handled With future mailings 149