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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
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B
The 1993 GOALS Study Conference

The GOALS Study Conference was held in Hawaii on 1–3 March 1993, with about 110 participants. The conference was arranged to receive maximum inputs from the scientific community on the plans for observations, modeling, and research in the post-TOGA period. It was organized around a number of scientific questions, each of which was introduced by an invited speaker. Following the scientific presentations, the Study Conference broke into three working groups—modeling, observations, and empirical/process studies. This procedure gave all attendees an opportunity to provide input. The Study Conference agenda and list of participants follow.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
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Climate Research Committee

GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE

East-West Conference Center

1777 East West Road

University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

March 1–3, 1993

Final Agenda

Objective: To more fully define the science for GOALS and to prepare a final document reflecting the GOALS science objectives and research strategy.

MONDAY, MARCH 1, 1993

Keoni Auditorium

0900

Welcome and Opening Remarks

Barry Raleigh William Sprigg Jagadish Shukla

Morning Session Chair: Klaus Wyrtki

0920

GOALS and Climate and Global Change in the United States

Otis Brown

0940

CLIVAR

Gordon McBean

1020

BREAK

 

1040

TOGA

Mark Cane

1120

GOALS Overview

Ed Sarachik

1140

LUNCH

 

Afternoon Session Chair: Tetsuzo Yasunari

Science Questions:

1300

1. What are the structure and dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system and what are the reasons for its large spatial variability over the globe?

George Philander

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

1340

2. What is the nature of the global interannual climate variability and what is its relationship to the seasonal cycle? What processes give rise to such variability? Can our understanding of this variability be exploited for prediction?

Dennis Hartmann

1420

3. What is the role of the slowly varying global boundary conditions at the earth's surface (SST, sea ice, snow cover and land moisture) in determining the nature of the interannual variability of the global atmosphere?

Jagadish Shukla

1500

BREAK

 

1520

4. What determines low-level convergence of moisture in the tropics over water, land, and land in the proximity to water? In other words, what determines the location of the thermal sources?

Edwin Schneider

1600

5. What is the nature of tropical-extratropical interactions? In particular, what is the role of tropical SST anomalies in perturbing the extratropical atmosphere, and in generating extratropical SST anomalies through the atmosphere? For what regions of the globe can accurate predictions of tropical SST anomalies be translated into skillful regional climate forecasts one or more seasons in advance?

Gabriel Lau

1640

RECESS

 

1730 to 1930

RECEPTION at the East-West Center Lanai, hosted by JIMAR

 

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993

Keoni Auditorium

Morning Session Chair: Gordon McBean

0830

6. What improvements in coupled ocean-land-atmosphere models, convection, mixing and in particular the processes that determine the coupling of the atmosphere and ocean are needed for seasonal to interannual predictions?

Carlos Mechoso

0910

7. Are there interactions between interannual and interdecadal variability? If so, what is the nature of these interactions? Are there similar or different mechanisms at work on these two time scales?

Michael Ghil

0950

BREAK

 

1010

8. What is the role of high frequency fluctuations in the tropics and mid-latitudes in seasonal to interannual climate variability and predictability?

Roger Lukas

1050

9. What measurements of the global upper ocean and land surface are required to initialize the coupled models of the global ocean–atmosphere–land system for prediction of seasonal and interannual variability?

Ants Leetmaa/Gordon Bonan

1130

LUNCH

 

1300

Short Presentations, Open Discussion, and Charge to Working Groups—J. Shukla, Discussion Leader

Speakers: —Kikuro Miyakoda

—Peter Webster

—Antonio Moura

 

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

1400

Working Group Meetings

1. Observations—David Halpern, Chair

2. Empirical Studies—Mike Wallace, Chair

3. Modeling—David Anderson and Edward Sarachik, Co-Chairs

1500

BREAK

1520

Resume Working Group Meetings in previously assigned breakout rooms

1630

Plenary Session—Keoni Auditorium Reports from Working Group Chairs

1700

RECESS

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 3, 1993

0830

Plenary Session—Keoni Auditorium

0900

Working Group Meetings in previously assigned breakout rooms

1200

LUNCH

1300

Working Group Meetings, continued

1400

All Participants return to Keoni Auditorium

1400

Plenary Discussion

Reports from Working Group Chairs

1500

BREAK

1520

1600

Closing Remarks

—Michael Ghil, Climate Research Committee

—Jagadish Shukla, Conference Chair

1630

ADJOURN

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

PARTICIPANTS

GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE

MARCH 1–3, 1993

Jon E. Ahlquist, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

David L.T. Anderson, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom

Richard T. Barber, Duke University Marine Laboratories, Beaufort, North Carolina

Tim Barnett, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

David S. Battisti, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Kenneth H. Bergman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C.

Fred Bingham, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii

Maurice L. Blackmon, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado

Donna Blake, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Gordon B. Bonan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Byron Boville, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Otis Brown, University of Miami, Miami, Florida

Antonio J. Busalacchi, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD

Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

George F. Carrier, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

James Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Ping Chang, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas

William E. Clements, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

Michael Coughlan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

David B. Enfield, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida

Steven K. Esbensen, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

David L. Evans, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.

Jay S. Fein, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Rana A. Fine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida

Pierre Flament, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Silvia L. Garzoli, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.

W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California

Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, California

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

David Goodrich, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

Nick Graham, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

David Gutzler, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado

Peter Hacker, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

J. Michael Hall, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

David Halpern, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California

Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Stefan Hastenrath, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin

Rui Xin Huang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

Eric Itsweire, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.

Fei Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Thomas R. Karl, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, North Carolina

Eli J. Katz, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

Masahide Kimoto, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan

Robert A. Knox, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Mojib Latif, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Alexis Lau, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Ngar-Cheung Gabriel Lau, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

William K-M Lau, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland

Ants Leetmaa, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland

Marlon R. Lewis, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Roger B. Lukas, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Douglas S. Luther, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

Jerry D. Mahlman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey

John Marsh, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland

Douglas G. Martinson, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

Gordon A. McBean, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Julian P. McCreary, Nova University Oceanographic Center, Dania, Florida

Michael J. McPhaden, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington

James C. McWilliams, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Carlos Mechoso, University of California, Los Angeles, California

Kukuro Miyakoda, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

Robert L. Molinari, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida

Kenneth Mooney, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

Dennis W. Moore, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Antonio D. Moura, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, California

Peter Niiler, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

James J. O'Brien, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Donald B. Olson, University of Miami, Miami, Florida

Michael Patterson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

John S. Perry, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.

S. George Philander, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

Joel Picaut, ORSTOM, Noumea, New Caledonia

Stephen D. Piotrowicz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

James F. Price, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

C. Barry Raleigh, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Eugene M. Rasmusson, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Richard W. Reynolds, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland

Jeffery C. Rogers, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio

Chester F. Ropelewski, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C.

Lewis Rothstein, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island

Barry Saltzman, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

Edward S. Sarachik, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×

Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

Karyn Sawyer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Edwin K. Schneider, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Paul Schopf, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland

Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

Albert Semtner, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California

Eileen L. Shea, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland

Jagadish Shukla, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland

Pedro L. Silva-Dias, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Soroosh Sorooshian, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona

William A. Sprigg, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.

Duane Stevens, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Max J. Suarez, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland

Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

Richard P. Turco, University of California, Los Angeles, California

Sophie Wacongne, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Brest Cedex, France

Duane E. Waliser, University of California, Los Angeles, California

John Michael Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Bin Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

Robert H. Weisberg, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida

Klaus Wyrtki, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Jiayan Yang, University of California, Los Angeles, California

Tetsuzo Yasunari, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Stephen E. Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

Chidong Zhang, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX B: THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE." National Research Council. 1994. GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/4811.
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Next: APPENDIX C: ACRONYMS AND OTHER INITIALS »
GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Get This Book
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This book lays out a science plan for a major, international, 15-year research program. The past 10 years have seen significant progress in studies of short-term climate variations, in particular for the region of the tropical Pacific Ocean and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Some forecast skill with lead times as long as a year in advance has already been developed and put to use. The GOALS program plans to capitalize on this progress by expanding efforts on observations and seasonal-to-interannual predictions to the remainder of the tropics and to higher latitudes.

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