National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts

Panel on Seismic Hazard Evaluation

Committee on Seismology

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, DC 1997



Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This report was prepared with the support of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Award No. NRC-G-04-92-117. The opinions, findings, conclusions and recommendations expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Additional copies of this report are available from:

Committee on Seismology

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

National Research Council

2101 Constitution Avenue, NW

HA 372

Washington, DC 20418

202-334-2744

The cover photo, courtesy of Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey, shows damage to Nimitz Freeway resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989.

Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

PANEL ON SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION

CARL KISSLINGER, Chairman,

University of Colorado, Boulder

KEIITI AKI,

University of Southern California, Los Angeles

WALTER J. ARABASZ,

University of Utah, Salt Lake City

DENNIS K. BENSON,

Appropriate Solutions, Columbus, Ohio

JOHN E. EBEL,

Boston College, Massachusetts

THOMAS C. HANKS,

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California

JAMES S. LANGER,

University of California, Santa Barbara

NORMAN C. RASMUSSEN,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

LEON REITER,

Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Arlington, Virginia

DANIELE VENEZIANO,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

National Research Council Staff

WILLIAM E. BENSON, Study Director

JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY

THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chairman,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge

WALTER J. ARABASZ,

University of Utah, Salt Lake City

F. A. DAHLEN,

* Princeton University, New Jersey

STEVEN M. DAY,

San Diego State University, California

THOMAS C. HANKS,

U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California

CHARLES A. LANGSTON,

Pennsylvania State University, University Park

THORNE LAY,

University of California, Santa Cruz

STEWART A. LEVIN,

Mobil Exploration & Production Technical Center, Dallas, Texas

STEPHEN D. MALONE,

University of Washington, Seattle

DONALD L. PAUL,

Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, Houston, Texas

JAMES R. RICE,

Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts

PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,

Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Pasadena, California

ANNE M. TREHU,

Oregon State University, Corvallis

JOHN E. VIDALE,

University of California, Los Angeles

National Research Council Staff

CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer

WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer

JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

*

Term expired December 31, 1995.

Term expired December 31, 1994.

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

J. FREEMAN GILBERT, Chairman,

University of California, San Diego

THURE CERLING,

University of Utah, Salt Lake City

MARK P. CLOOS,

University of Texas at Austin

JOEL DARMSTADTER,

Resources for the Future, Washington, DC

KENNETH I. DAUGHERTY,

E-Systems, Fairfax, Virginia

WILLIAM R. DICKINSON,

University of Arizona, Tucson, emeritus

MARCO T. EINAUDI,

Stanford University, California

NORMAN H. FOSTER,

Independent Petroleum Geologist, Denver, Colorado

CHARLES G. GROAT,

University of Texas, El Paso

DONALD C. HANEY,

Kentucky Geological Survey, Lexington

SUSAN M. KIDWELL,

University of Chicago, Illinois

SUSAN KIEFFER,

Kieffer & Woo, Inc., Palgrave, Ontario

PHILIP E. LAMOREAUX,

P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates, Inc., Tuscaloosa, Alabama

SUSAN M. LANDON,

Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver, Colorado

J. BERNARD MINSTER,

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California

ALEXANDRA NAVROTSKY,

Princeton University, New Jersey

JILL D. PASTERIS,

Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri

EDWARD C. ROY, JR.,

Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas

National Research Council Staff

CRAIG M. SCHIFFRIES, Director

THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Associate Director

WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer

ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer

CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer

LALLY A. ANDERSON, Staff Associate

VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant

JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

JUDITH ESTEP, Administrative Assistant

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chairman,

University of Virginia, Charlottesville

PATRICK R. ATKINS,

Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

JAMES P. BRUCE,

Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario

WILLIAM L. FISHER,

University of Texas at Austin

JERRY F. FRANKLIN,

University of Washington, Seattle

DEBRA S. KNOPMAN,

Progressive Foundation, Washington, DC

PERRY L. MCCARTY,

Stanford University, California

JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,

Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts

S. GEORGE PHILANDER,

Princeton University, New Jersey

RAYMOND A. PRICE,

Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario

THOMAS C. SCHELLING,

University of Maryland, College Park

ELLEN K. SILBERGELD,

University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore

VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,

Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida

National Research Council Staff

STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director

STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director

MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director

GREGORY SYMMES, Reports Officer

JAMES MALLORY, Administrative Officer

SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

MARQUITA SMITH, PC Analyst

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
This page in the original is blank.
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×

Preface

In the 1980s two studies produced probabilistic seismic hazard estimates for nuclear power plant sites in the central and eastern United States. The first, sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), was conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The second, sponsored by utilities in the Seismicity Owners Group, was conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The studies produced similar hazard curves and generally similar estimates of relative hazard. But for several sites absolute hazard levels differed by two or more orders of magnitude.

Because absolute hazard levels are important for nuclear power plant design, a new study, sponsored jointly by the USNRC, EPRI, and the U.S. Department of Energy, was undertaken by the newly formed Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) to determine the source of the major discrepancies in the two hazard estimates and to derive a robust probabilistic seismic hazards analysis methodology that could be used for future estimates.

At the same time, the USNRC asked the National Research Council (NRC) to review the work of the SSHAC study and evaluate the proposed methodology. This review was undertaken by the Panel on Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the NRC's Committee on Seismology which followed the work of the SSHAC study and produced the present critique of the SSHAC report.

Carl Kisslinger

Chairman

Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
This page in the original is blank.
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R1
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R2
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R3
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R4
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R5
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R6
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R7
Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R8
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R9
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R10
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R11
Suggested Citation:"FRONT MATTER." National Research Council. 1997. Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5487.
×
Page R12
Next: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY »
Review of Recommendations for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: Guidance on Uncertainty and Use of Experts Get This Book
×
Buy Paperback | $47.00
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF
  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!