1—Introduction
Michael J. Feuer and Richard J. Shavelson
The American labor market is experiencing a dramatic transition. Between 1970 and 1993 the proportion of all U.S. workers employed in manufacturing fell by 41 percent, from 27 percent of total employed to 16 percent. In one year alone, 1992-1993, 40 million new jobs were created in the nonfarm sector, while some 238,000 manufacturing jobs were lost. The shift has clearly been in the direction of employment that relies on a different mix of skills. For example, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Commerce, 1994), the fastest-growing occupations include home health aides, physical therapy aides, computer engineers, and scientists; the fastest-declining occupations are frame wirers, signal or track switch maintainers, and central office operators.
At the same time, the distribution of earnings among U.S. workers has shifted dramatically. On average, male high school graduates aged 25-34 earned 15 percent less in 1989 than in 1979 (Levy and Murnane, 1992). And the gap between the earnings of high school and college graduates grew from 13 to 43 percent between 1982 and 1992.
These shifts have contributed to a growing sense of alarm about the capacity of the nation's schools to supply adequately skilled graduates to the work force. Indeed, concern with long-term productivity and competitiveness has been a principal force behind the wave of education reform efforts that began in the mid-1980s. But the role that schools can or should play in preparing people to enter the world of work is hotly debated. Business leaders tend to lament the low skill
This chapter draws on the published conference summary, Transitions in Work and Learning: Implications for Assessment (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996).
levels of entry-level workers but are often unclear about exactly what skills are most important; educators tend to challenge the notion that their principal objective should be to supply skilled laborers, even as many of them recognize the public's historical faith in schools as the gateway to good jobs and a high standard of living. With nearly constant reminders of the economic revolution affecting all industrial societies, questions about how to define and measure workplace competencies, how to establish skill requirements, and how to create incentives for teaching and learning in schools and work establishments have again risen to the fore. The central questions are often posed with deceiving simplicity:
- How is work changing?
- What skills are required to perform productive work?
- What methods are needed to provide accurate information about the supply of skills and employers' demands?
- What are the effects of using tests and other indicators of performance on efficient and equitable functioning of labor markets?
To help nurture the important and ongoing national dialogue on these issues, the National Research Council's Board on Testing and Assessment convened a two-day conference in March 1996, at which a group of researchers and policy makers engaged in an interdisciplinary review and discussion of available data and implications for assessment policy. This activity reflects on one of the board's principal mandates: to foster high-level scientific deliberations on public policy issues that involve the design, uses, and effects of testing and assessment technologies.
The board commissioned a set of papers for the conference that, together, offer a uniquely cross-cutting view of the evolving role of assessment in fostering both improved learning and clearer signaling of individuals' skills. The authors were asked to draw on their own research expertise and to consider the implications of their work for the more general questions surrounding education, training, and school-to-work policies.
The papers in this volume are grouped into five parts, following the format of the conference. Part I consists of two papers that raise the fundamental underlying question: Does empirical evidence support the claim of a skills mismatch in the U.S. economy? Expressed differently, are changes in the organization and output of work in the U.S. economy creating a demand for skills that are not adequately provided by the existing education system?
In his paper, Harry Holzer reports that economic returns to education have risen dramatically in recent years and argues that the supply of skilled workers has not kept pace with the shifting labor market demand for higher levels of educational attainment. Although this short-run imbalance could theoretically be overcome in the long term if employers and workers invest in appropriate education and training, Holzer cautions against overreliance on the market's capacity for self-correction. Among the policies that he urges exploration of are those that