NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This study was supported by Award No. PO-950011 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and Grant No. EAR-9526501 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Advanced Research Projects Agency (via the National Science Foundation). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
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The cover art was created by Carrie Mallory.
The cover is an oil painting of a large valley near Wolfville, Nova Scotia.
Ms. Mallory received her Bachelor of Fine Arts from the Cooper Union. She frequently exhibits at juried shows in Northern Virginia. She takes many of her themes from nature and has provided art for a number of NRC reports.
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
PANEL ON BASIC RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS IN SUPPORT OF COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN MONITORING
THORNE LAY, Chair,
University of California, Santa Cruz
SUSAN L. BECK,
University of Arizona, Tucson
ALFRED BEDARD,
Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado
ADAM M. DZIEWONSKI,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JOHN R. FILSON,
U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia
WILLARD J. HANNON, Jr.,
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California
DONALD V. HELMBERGER,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
WILLIAM A. JESTER II,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park
SHELDON LANDSBERGER,
University of Illinois, Urbana
PETER MIKHALEVSKY,
Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, Virginia
JOHN A. ORCUTT,
University of California, La Jolla
PAUL G. RICHARDS,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York
ROBERT C. SPINDEL,
University of Washington, Seattle
BRIAN STUMP,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
RODNEY W. WHITAKER,
Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico
Staff
CHARLES MEADE, Study Director
THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Senior Staff Officer
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY
THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chair,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
RALPH ARCHULETA,
University of California, Santa Barbara (appointed 3/20/97)
SUSAN BECK,
University of Arizona, Tucson (appointed, 3/20/97)
STEVEN M. DAY,
San Diego State University, California (term ended 12/31/96)
THOMAS C. HANKS,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
CHARLES A. LANGSTON,
The Pennsylvania State University, University Park (term ended 12/31/96)
THORNE LAY,
University of California, Santa Cruz
STEWART A. LEVIN,
Mobil Exploration & Production Technical Center, Dallas, Texas
STEPHEN D. MALONE,
University of Washington, Seattle
T. GUY MASTERS,
University of California, San Diego (appointed 3/20/97)
JAMES R. RICE,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,
Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Pasadena, California
ANNE M. TREHU,
Oregon State University, Corvallis (term ended 12/31/96)
JOHN E. VIDALE,
University of California, Los Angeles
Staff
CHARLES MEADE, Senior Staff Officer
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
J. FREEMAN GILBERT, Chair,
University of California, San Diego
MARK P. CLOOS,
University of Texas, Austin
JOEL DARMSTADTER,
Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
KENNETH I. DAUGHERTY,
E-Systems, Fairfax, Virginia
NORMAN H. FOSTER, Independent Petroleum Geologist,
Denver, Colorado
CHARLES G. GROAT,
University of Texas, El Paso
DONALD C. HANEY,
University of Kentucky, Lexington
RAYMOND JEANLOZ,
University of California, Berkeley
SUSAN M. KIDWELL,
University of Chicago, Illinois
SUSAN KIEFFER,
Kieffer & Woo, Inc., Palgrave, Ontario
PHILIP E. LaMOREAUX,
P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates, Inc., Tuscaloosa, Alabama
SUSAN M. LANDON,
Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver, Colorado
J. BERNARD MINSTER,
University of California, San Diego
ALEXANDRA NAVROTSKY,
Princeton University, New Jersey
JILL D. PASTERIS,
Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
EDWARD C. ROY, Jr.,
Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas
EDWARD M. STOLPER,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
MILTON H. WARD,
Cyprus Amax Minerals Company, Englewood, California
Staff
CRAIG M. SCHIFFRIES, Director
THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Associate Director
WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer
LALLY A. ANDERSON, Staff Associate
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chairman,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JAMES P. BRUCE,
Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario
WILLIAM L. FISHER,
University of Texas, Austin
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
PERRY L. McCARTY,
Stanford University, California
JUDITH E. McDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
S. GEORGE PHILANDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ELLEN SILBERGELD,
University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
Staff
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Preface
In 1995, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and the Air Force Phillips Laboratory requested a review of their seismic research programs in support of nuclear test verification efforts. For this task, the National Research Council's Committee on Seismology appointed a panel of 10 seismologists. At the group's first meeting, however, the sponsors described Department of Defense (DoD) proposals to eliminate the Air Force programs and to consolidate all of the DoD research efforts related to nuclear test monitoring. As described in this report, these proposals were approved and eventually implemented in fiscal year 1997, raising obvious difficulties for the work of the panel.
The organizational changes at DoD occurred while the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was under negotiation in Geneva. To ensure compliance with the CTBT's ban on nuclear explosions, a global seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic, and radionuclide data collection system is to be deployed as part of an International Monitoring System (IMS). The United States has indicated that it would monitor international treaty compliance using these unclassified IMS data, together with additional National Technical Means (NTM). To meet this challenge, the newly created Nuclear Treaty Program Office (NTPO) within DoD plans to broaden the support for research in the Defense Department's treaty monitoring efforts. Recognizing that the National Research Council had already formed a panel with significant seismological expertise on nuclear monitoring. NTPO requested modifications to the ongoing Air Force study to consider a broader range of disciplines and research needs for CTBT verification. In response to this request, six panelists were added, two each from the fields of hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclide monitoring, and the scope of the study was enlarged (see Appendix A).
In all, the original and enlarged panel met five times over a period of 14 months between November 1995 and January 1997. In the course of its work, the panel received briefings from representatives of the following offices and agencies: Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Air Force Phillips Laboratory, Nuclear Treaty Program Office, Center for Monitoring Research, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (Department of Energy), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Air Resources Laboratory (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), and the Air Force Technical Applications Center (AFTAC). One of these briefings (AFTAC) was presented at the Secret level. In addition, some members of the panel attended classified on-site meetings at AFTAC to discuss national monitoring operations and research needs in the
fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, and radionuclides. The panel also received a tour and briefing on the operations at the Center for Monitoring Research. Throughout the study, the panel received valuable assistance from its liaison representatives: Stanley Dickinson (AFOSR), James Lewkowicz (Phillips Laboratory), Ralph Alewine (NTPO), Steve Bratt (NTPO), and David Russell† (AFTAC).
In response to its charge, the panel's report describes the research needs and associated infrastructure needed to promote high-confidence monitoring of the CTBT by the United States. For this work, the panel relied on its expertise in the fields of seismology, hydroacoustics, infrasound, and radionuclides to analyze the role of each discipline alone and in conjunction with others in specific treaty monitoring capabilities. The report concludes that continued basic research will improve these capabilities, effectively lowering the threshold for CTBT compliance and eventually achieving U.S. monitoring goals. Developing synergies between monitoring technologies is important in this effort, but doing so will require a significant research program because data sets for most of the monitoring technologies have not been available in the past for small events in regions of interest. Throughout the report, the panel notes mechanisms to transition research results to monitoring operations. Such efforts will be essential for future improvements in monitoring capability.