The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1998
Page ii
National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, DC 20418
Notice: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Office of Naval Research of the Department of Defense, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM-9526208. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above-mentioned agencies.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The atmospheric sciences: entering the twenty-first century /
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Commission on
Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06415-5
1. Atmospheric physics. 2. Atmospheric chemistry. 3. Atmospheric
physicsResearchUnited States. I. National Research Council
(U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.
QC861.2 .A88 1998
551.5ddc21
98-40083
The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century is available from the National Academy Press. 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, DC 20418 (1-800-624-624; http://www.nap.edu).
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Current Board On Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ERIC J. BARRON, (Co-chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY, (Co-chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON, Weather Services International Corp., Billerica, Massachusetts
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Staff Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Staff Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant
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Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate That Prepared This Report
JOHN A. DUTTON (Chair). Pennsylvania State University, University Park
ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
CRAIG E. DORMAN, Office of Naval Research, Arlington, Virginia
FRANCO EINAUDI, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook
PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington, Seattle
WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, The University of Iowa, Iowa City
MARGARET A. LEMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
DOUGLAS K. LILLY, University of Oklahoma, Norman
RICHARD S. LINDZEN,* Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College Station
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Staff
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer and Study Director
DORIS BOUADJEMI,† Administrative Assistant
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Acting Director
WILLIAM A. SPRIGG,† Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
KENT L. GRONINGER,† Senior Program Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Staff Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Staff Officer
ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant
KELLY NORSINGLE,† Senior Project Assistant
ANDREW E. EVANS,† Program Summer Intern
* Did not participate in the preparation of this report.
† Denotes past staff members who were active during the preparation of this report.
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Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach, California
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA S. KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Assistant Executive Director
JEANETTE A. SPOON, Administrative Officer
SANDI S. FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA S. SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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PREFACE
The atmospheric sciences have progressed in the twentieth century from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise providing considerable benefits to individuals, businesses, and governments. Through research and applications, the atmospheric sciences provide information that contributes to protection of life and property, agriculture, economic and industrial vitality, management of air quality, battlefield decisions, and national policies concerning energy and environment.
This report sets forth recommendations intended to strengthen atmospheric science and services and to enhance benefits to the nation. It is thus intended for those who share the responsibility for maintaining the pace of improvement in the atmospheric sciences, including leaders and policy makers in the public sector, such as legislators and executives of the relevant federal agencies; decision makers in the private sector of the atmospheric sciences; executives of other economic endeavors whose activities are dependent on atmospheric information, and of course, university departments that include atmospheric science.
Today the activities of the atmospheric sciences extend from the search for fundamental understanding to a wide range of specific applications in weather, climate, air quality, and other environmental issues. Moreover, the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) believes that new alliances between government, the private sector, and academe are developing rapidly and will advance the atmospheric sciences and services. Nevertheless, the federal government has a key and continuing role in supporting research to ensure that weather forecasts and warnings will improve, that uncertainties about a changing climate or air quality will be reduced, and that future atmospheric impacts and benefits will be identified early enough to ensure the safety and vitality of the nation.
This study was supported by the Department of Agriculture, the Department
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of Energy, the Department of Defense, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation. It began with a poll of leaders in science and engineering to obtain their views of issues and priorities for the atmospheric sciences.
The Board then requested its continuing committees for chemistry, solar-terrestrial, and climate research and two ad hoc teams of experts in atmospheric physics and dynamics/weather forecasting to assess for BASC the scientific challenges facing their disciplines, each discipline's contribution to the national well-being, and the research needed to face the challenges. These five technical reports, called "Disciplinary Assessments," were prepared for consideration by BASC. They are published here because they contain valuable ideas and suggestions that could interest research workers and federal agencies.
BASC then used the Disciplinary Assessments, together with input received from a variety of scientific sources as the basis for its appraisal of the major changes facing the atmospheric sciences as a whole. Some remarkably consistent themes emerged across the five Disciplinary Assessments, themes that permitted BASC to develop its vision of the future for the atmospheric sciences.
Thus, the Board's conclusions and recommendations for atmospheric sciences and services are a summary and a synthesis of the Disciplinary Assessments and recommendations and are presented as Part I of this report. In Part I the Board also points out some opportunities and challenges that derive from its own broad survey of the state and future of the atmospheric sciences. Although the major part of this report focuses on science issues, Part I points to other key elements of a national agenda for atmospheric sciences and services.
Part II, "Disciplinary Assessments," contains the five assessments, each devoted to a major research area within the atmospheric sciences. These areas and the chairs of the study groups follow: Atmospheric Physics, William A. Cooper; Chemistry, William Chameides; Dynamics and Weather Forecasting, Kerry Emanuel; Upper Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space, Marvin Geller; and Climate and Climate Change, Eric J. Barron. The Board is indebted to all who contributed to this study. Their names appear in the appropriate chapters of Part II. Portions of the Disciplinary Assessments included in Part II of this report have been abstracted and used as input to a forthcoming NRC report Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade.
The Twenty-First Century report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative
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process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Bruce Albrecht, University of Miami
Richard A. Anthes, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Eugene W. Bierly, American Geophysical Union
John S. Chipman. Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
Ralph J. Cicerone, University of California, Irvine
Paul J. Crutzen, Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie
Richard M. Goody, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Thomas E. Graedel, Yale University
John Hallet, Desert Research Institute
Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington
D.A. Henderson, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
James R. Holton, University of Washington
Donald Hornig, Harvard School of Public Health (emeritus)
Donald R. Johnson, University of Wisconsin
Richard S. Lindzen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Syukuro Manabe, Institute for Global Change Research Program, Tokyo. Japan
Marcia M. Neugebauer, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. California Institute of Technology
Edward S. Sarachik, University of Washington
Joanne Simpson, Goddard Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
George Siscoe, retired
Robert M. White, President, Washington Advisory Group
Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
The Board and I are grateful to David H. Slade, Senior Program Officer and Study Director, whose acumen and energy contributed much to the organization and writing of this report, and to Doris Bouadjemi, Administrative Assistant, who directed its publication with skill and dedication. The Board and I are also grateful to William A. Sprigg. former director of BASC, whose energy. dedication and innovation contributed much to the work of the Board and to its achievements in recent years.
JOHN A. DUTTON
CHAIR
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CONTENTS
Summary |
|
Part I |
|
1 |
|
Four Centuries of Progress |
|
The Atmospheric Sciences and Other Disciplines |
|
Looking Forward to the Twenty-First Century |
|
2 |
|
Protection of Life and Property |
|
Need for Forecasts and Warnings |
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Progress in Weather Services |
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Maintaining Environmental Quality |
|
Chlorofluorocarbons and Ozone |
|
Greenhouse Gases and Global Change |
|
Aerosols |
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Role of Atmospheric Sciences in Environmental Issues |
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Enhancing National Economic Vitality |
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Benefits of Weather and Climate Information |
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Strengthening Fundamental Understanding |
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3 |
|
Atmospheric Science Imperative 1: Optimize and Integrate Observation Capabilities |
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New Observing Opportunities |
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Requirements for Optimizing and Integrating Observing Systems |
|
Observing System Simulation Experiments |
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Atmospheric Science Imperative 2: Develop New Observation Capabilities |
|
Water in the Atmosphere |
|
Wind Observations |
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Observations in the Stratosphere |
|
Observations in Near-Earth Space |
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Atmospheric Research Recommendation 1: Resolve Interactions at Atmospheric Boundaries and Among Different Scales of Flow |
|
Surface Properties |
|
Long-Term Interactios with the Oceans |
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Clouds and Their Consequences |
|
Aerosols and Atmospheric Chemistry |
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The Fundamental Problem of Nonlinearity |
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Atmospheric Research Recommendation 2: Extend a Disciplined Forecast Process to New Areas |
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Atmospheric Research Recommendation 3: Initiate Studies of Emerging Issues |
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Climate, Weather and Health |
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Water Resources |
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Rapidly Increasing Emissions to the Atmosphere |
|
4 |
|
Leadership and Management Recommendation 1: Develop a Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information |
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A Changing System for Providing Weather Services |
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Prospects for Atmospheric Information |
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Implications of Distributed Atmospheric Information Services |
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Leadership and Management Recommendation 2: Ensure Access to Atmospheric Information |
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Leadership and Management Recommendation 3: Assess Benefits and Costs |
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Federal Funding of Atmospheric Research and Services |
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Leadership and Management Planning |
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Part II |
|
1 |
|
Summary |
|
Major Scientific Goals and Challenges |
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Key Components of the Scientific Strategy |
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Initiatives to Support the Strategies |
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Expected Benefits and Contributions to the National Well-Being |
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Recommended Atmospheric Physics Research |
|
Introduction |
|
Mission |
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Major Research Themes and Past Accomplishments |
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Perspective for the Future |
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Scientific Challenges and Questions |
|
Atmospheric Radiation |
|
Cloud Physics |
|
Atmospheric Electricity |
|
Boundary Layer Meteorology |
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Small-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics |
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Disciplinary Research Challenges |
|
Contributions to National Goals |
|
2 |
|
Summary |
|
Major Scientific Questions and Challenge |
|
Overarching Research Challenges |
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Disciplinary Research Challenges |
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Infrastructural Initiatives |
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Expected Benefits and Contribution to the National Well-Being |
|
Introduction and Overview |
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The Mission |
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Insights of the Twentieth Century |
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Disciplinary Research Challenges |
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Overarching Research Challenges |
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Infrastructural Initiatives |
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Conclusion |
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The Environmentally Important Atmospheric Species: Scientific Questions and Research Strategies |
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Stratospheric Ozone |
|
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases |
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Photochemical Oxidants |
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Atmospheric Aerosols |
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Toxics and Nutrient |
|
3 |
|
Summary |
|
Emerging Research Opportunities |
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Key Recommendations |
|
Introduction |
|
Basic Research Foci |
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Technique Developments |
|
Technological Developments |
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Conclusion |
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4 |
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Summary |
|
Major Scientific Goals and Challenges |
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Key Components of the Scientific Strategy |
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Scientific Requirements for the Coming Decade(s) |
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Expected Benefits and Contributions to the National Well-Being |
|
Upper-Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space Research Tasks |
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Introduction |
|
The Sun |
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Interplanetary Space |
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The Magnetosphere |
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The Ionosphere-Upper Atmosphere |
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The Middle Atmosphere |
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Cosmic Rays |
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Research Priorities |
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Stratospheric Processes Important for Climate and the Biosphere |
|
Stratospheric Ozone |
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Volcanic Effects |
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Solar Effects |
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Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Effects |
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Atmospheric Effects of Aircraft |
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The Role of the Stratosphere in Climate and Weather Prediction |
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Key Initatives |
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Measures of Success |
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Space Weather |
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Scientific Background |
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Critical Science Questions |
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History and Current Research Activities |
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Key Initiatives |
|
Middle-Upper Atmosphere Global Change |
|
Scientific Background |
|
Critical Science Questions |
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Key Initiatives |
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Contributions to the Solution of Societal Problems |
|
Measures of Success |
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Solar Influences |
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Solar Energy Output over a Solar Cycle |
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Separating Solar and Anthropogenic Effects |
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Solar Influences on the Earth's Upper and Middle Atmosphere |
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Physical Basis of the Solar Activity Cycle |
|
Long-Term Changes in Solar Behavior: Solar-Type Stars |
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Key Initiatives |
|
Contributions to the Solution of Societal Problems |
|
5 |
|
Summary |
|
Introduction |
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Mission Statement |
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Perspectives for the Twenty-First Century |
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Insights of the Twentieth Century |
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The Scientific Questions |
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Key Drivers for Research in the Twenty-First Century |
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Objectives and Requirements for Climate Research |
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Objective 1 |
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Objective 2 |
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Objective 3 |
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Objective 4 |
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Objective 5 |
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Objective 6 |
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Objective 7 |
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Priorities for Climate Research |
|
Build a Permanent Climate Observing System |
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Extend the Instrumented Climate Record Through Development of Integrated Historical and Proxy Data Sets |
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Continue and Expand Diagnostic Efforts and Process Study Research to Elucidate Key Climate Variability and Change Processes |
|
Construct and Evaluate Climate Models That Are Increasingly Comprehensive, Incorporating All Major Components of the Climate System |
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Cross-Cutting Requirements |
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Education |
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Institutional Arrangements |
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Contributions to National Goals and Needs |
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References |
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Appendix A |
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Appendix B |
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Index |
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