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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Technical Support Services Contract DACW61-96-D-0001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office of the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Modeling human and organizational behavior : application to military simulations / Richard W. Pew and Anne S. Mavor, editors.
p. cm.
"Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council."
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06096-6
1. Psychology, Military. 2. Human behavior—Simulation methods. 3. Decision-making. 4. Command of troops. I. Pew, Richard W. II. Mavor, Anne S. III. National Research Council (U.S.). Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations.
U22.3 .M58 1998
355'.001'9—ddc21
98-19705
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Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
PANEL ON MODELING HUMAN BEHAVIOR AND COMMAND DECISION MAKING: REPRESENTATIONS FOR MILITARY SIMULATIONS
RICHARD W. PEW (Chair),
BBN Technologies, GTE Internetworking, Cambridge, MA
JEROME BUSEMEYER,
Psychology Department, Indiana University
KATHLEEN M. CARLEY,
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University
TERRY CONNOLLY,
Department of Management and Policy and College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN R. CORSON,
JRC Research and Analysis, L.L.C., Williamsburg, VA
KENNETH H. FUNK, II,
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis
BONNIE E. JOHN,
Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University
RICHARD M. SHIFFRIN,
Psychology Department, Indiana University, Bloomington
GREG L. ZACHARIAS,
Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA
ANNE S. MAVOR, Study Director
JERRY S. KIDD, Senior Adviser
SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant
COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS
WILLIAM C. HOWELL (Chair),
Arizona State University, Tempe
TERRY CONNOLLY,
Department of Management and Policy and College of Business and Public Administration, University of Arizona, Tucson
COLIN G. DRURY,
Industrial Engineering Department, University of Buffalo, New York
MARTHA GRABOWSKI,
Rensselaer Polytechnic and LeMoyne College, New York
DANIEL R. ILGEN,
Department of Psychology and Department of Management, Michigan State University
RICHARD J. JAGACINSKI,
Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, Columbus
LAWRENCE R. JAMES,
Department of Management, University of Tennessee
BONNIE E. JOHN,
Human-Computer Interaction Institute, Carnegie Mellon University
TOM B. LEAMON,
Liberty Mutual Insurance Co. and Liberty Mutual Research Center for Safety and Health, Hopkinton, MA
DAVID C. NAGEL,
AT&T Laboratories, Basking Ridge, NJ
KARLENE ROBERTS,
Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley
LAWRENCE W. STARK,
School of Optometry, University of California, Berkeley
KIM J. VICENTE,
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Toronto, Canada
EARL L. WIENER,
Department of Management Science, University of Miami
GREG L. ZACHARIAS,
Charles River Analytics, Cambridge, MA
ANNE S. MAVOR, Director
JERRY S. KIDD, Senior Adviser
SUSAN R. McCUTCHEN, Senior Project Assistant
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Preface
This report is the work of the Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations. The panel was established by the National Research Council (NRC) in 1996 in response to a request from the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office of the U.S. Department of Defense. The charge to the panel was to review the state of the art in human behavior representation as applied to military simulations, with emphasis on the challenging areas of cognitive, team, and organizational behavior. The panel formed to meet these goals included experts in individual behavior, organizational behavior, decision making, human factors, computational modeling, and military simulations.
The project extended over an 18-month period. At the end of the first phase, in February 1997, the panel published an interim report (Pew and Mavor, 1997) that argued for the need for models of human behavior, summarized a methodology for ensuring the development of useful models, and described selected psychological process models that have the potential to improve the realism with which human-influenced action is represented. In the second phase of the project, the panel conducted an in-depth analysis of the theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling at the individual, unit, and command levels. The result of that analysis is presented in this final report.
This report is intended not only for policy makers in the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office and the military services, but also for the broader behavioral science community in the military, other government agencies, industry, and universities, whose modeling efforts can contribute to the development of more realistic and thus more useful military simulations.
Many individuals have made a significant contribution to the panel's thinking and to various sections of the report by serving as presenters, consultants, and reviewers. Although all of these individuals provided valuable information, a few played a more direct role in developing this manuscript and deserve special mention. First, we extend our gratitude to Eva Hudlicka of Psychometrix Associates for her substantial contribution to the chapters on situation awareness and behavior moderators; in the latter chapter she provided draft material on modeling the effects of emotion on the cognitive activities of command decision makers. Next, we extend our gratitude to John Anderson of Carnegie Mellon University for his contributions to the discussion of ACT-R, to Stephen Grossberg of Boston University for his contribution on adaptive resonance theory, and to Stephen Deutsch of BBN Technologies, GTE Internetworking, for his work on OMAR. Finally, we offer a special thank you to David Kieras of the University of Michigan for his important insights as a member of the panel through its first phase and as a contributor of key information on EPIC for this volume.
Other individuals who provided important information and help include: Laurel Allender, Army Research Laboratory, Human Research and Engineering Directorate; Susan Archer, Micro Analysis and Design; Floyd Glenn, CHI Systems; Paul Lehner, MITRE Corporation; John Laird, University of Michigan; Ron Laughery, Micro Analysis and Design; John Lockett, Army Research Laboratory, Human Research and Engineering Directorate; Commander Dennis McBride, Office of Naval Research; James L. McClelland, Center for the Neural Basis of Cognition; H. Kent Pickett, TRADOC Analysis Center; Douglas Reece, Science Applications International Corporation; Gerard Rinkus, Charles River Analytics; Jay Shively, NASA Ames; Barry Smith, NASA Ames; Magnus Snorrason, Charles River Analytics; and Dave Touretzky, Carnegie Mellon University.
To our sponsors, the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office, we are most grateful for their interest in the topic of this report and their many useful contributions to the panel's work. We particularly thank Judith Dahmann, James Heusmann, Ruth Willis, and Major Steve Zeswitz, USMC. We also extend our thanks to Lieutenant Colonel Peter Polk for his support and encouragement during the projects first phase.
In the course of preparing this report, each member of the panel took an active role in drafting chapters, leading discussions, and reading and commenting on successive drafts. Jerome Busemeyer provided material on learning and decision making; Kathleen Carley drafted chapters on command and control at the unit level and on information warfare; Terry Connolly provided sections on decision making; John Corson provided expertise and drafted material on military needs and operations, Kenneth Funk took the major responsibility for coordinating and drafting material on integrative architectures and on multitasking; Bonnie John contributed significantly to the chapter on integrative architectures; Richard Shiffrin drafted sections on attention and memory; and Greg Zacharias drafted
material on situation awareness and planning. We are deeply indebted to the panel members for their broad scholarship, their insights, and their cooperative spirit. Truly, our report is the product of an intellectual team effort.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ruzena Bajcsy, Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania; Kevin Corker, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California; Scott Gronlund, Department of Psychology, University of Oklahoma; William Howell, American Psychological Association, Washington, D.C.; John F. Kihlstrom, Department of Psychology, University of California at Berkeley; R. Duncan Luce, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science, University of California at Irvine; Krishna Pattipati, Department of Electrical and Systems Engineering, University of Connecticut; Paul S. Rosenbloom, Department of Computer Science, University of Southern California; Anne Treisman, Department of Psychology, Princeton University; and Wayne Zachary, CHI Systems, Lower Gwynedd, Pennsylvania.
Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring panel and the NRC.
Staff of the National Research Council made important contributions to our work in many ways. We extend particular thanks to Susan McCutchen, the panel's senior project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings, arranging travel, compiling agenda materials, coordinating the sharing of information among panel members, and managing the preparation of this report. We are also indebted to Jerry Kidd, who provided help whenever it was needed and who made significant contributions to the chapter on the behavior moderators. Finally, we thank Rona Briere, whose editing greatly improved the report.
Richard W. Pew, Chair
Anne S. Mavor, Study Director
Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command
Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations