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The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

The Committee on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges would like to thank the participants in the Workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges and those who responded to the Delphi Survey, which were the principal data-gathering mechanisms for this study. The information and insight from these sources were invaluable to the committee.

Presenters at the workshop on Visionary Manufacturing Challenges included Philip Burgess of the Center for the New West; Edward Leamer of the University of California at Los Angeles; Paul Sheng of the University of California at Berkeley; Wilfried Sihn of Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing, Engineering and Automation; H.T. Goranson of Sirius Beta; Rick Dove of Paradigm Shift International; Brian Turner of Work and Technology Institute; Steven J. Bomba of Johnson Controls; Debra M. Amidon of Entovation International; Richard Altman of Communication Design; Mauro Walker of Motorola; and Richard Morley of Morley and Associates. The committee would like to thank these individuals for the time and thought that went into the workshop presentations. In addition, the committee appreciates the presentations and discussions provided by Bruce Gaber of the Naval Research Laboratory and Edward Lightfoot of the University of Wisconsin.

The committee would like to acknowledge the efforts of Bonnie Scarborough, National Research Council research associate, in conducting the Delphi survey and Brian Borys, consultant, in analyzing the first round survey results.

This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the

NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Robert P. Clagett, University of Rhode Island; Richard Kegg, Cincinnati Milicron; Michael McEvoy, Baxter International; Robert Pfahl, Motorola; A. Alan B. Pritsker, Pritsker Corporation; H. Donald Ratliff, Georgia Institute of Technology; Joseph P. Wirth, consultant; and Joel Yudken, AFL-CIO.

While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of the report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

Finally, the panel gratefully acknowledges the support of the staff of the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, including Robert Rusnak, study director (until March 1998), Thomas E. Munns, study director (after March 1998), and Aida C. Neel, senior project assistant.

Emerging economies, social and political transitions, and new ways of doing business are changing the world dramatically. These trends suggest that the competitive environment for manufacturing enterprises in 2020 will be significantly different than it is today. To be successful in this competitive climate, manufacturing enterprises of 2020 will require significantly improved capabilities. The attainment of these capabilities represents the challenge facing manufacturing.

The recent pace of technological advances could lead to complacency and the belief that technology will be available "on demand." Today's advances, however, were the result of exploratory enabling research performed years ago. If manufacturing is to have the technical capabilities it needs in 2020, the research that will provide the scientific basis for these capabilities must be initiated now. This report identifies areas for investments in research and development that will meet the needs of future manufacturers. Although the focus of this report is on technology, new technologies and new business practices will be inseparable.

The objectives of this study were (1) to create a vision of the competitive environment for manufacturing and the nature of the manufacturing enterprise in 2020, (2) to determine the major challenges for future manufacturing, and (3) to identify the key technologies for meeting these challenges. To perform this study, the National Research Council, through the Board on Manufacturing and Engineering Design, convened a committee of 13 individuals with expertise in manufacturing operations, management, and practices; manufacturing technology; education and training; social, behavioral, and political science; and technology forecasting. The committee included representatives from small, medium, and large companies in a variety of industries. The results of the committee's deliberations on a wide range of material are presented in this report.

The committee solicited information from a variety of manufacturing experts as a basis for its deliberations. The key to the success of this approach was selecting participants who are visionary leaders who could look beyond today, including national and international leaders in manufacturing and representatives of progressive manufacturing organizations.

The opinions of the selected experts were communicated to the committee in two ways: (1) a workshop that provided a forum for manufacturing experts and experts in fields likely to affect manufacturing in the future (e.g., economics, geopolitics, workforce, and education) and (2) an international Delphi survey that elicited creative ideas and helped the committee prioritize future industry needs. Recent forward-looking manufacturing studies—including the Next Generation Manufacturing Project report, industry-specific technology road maps, surveys, and futuristic views of manufacturing—were also reviewed.

This study has several unique features. First, the committee's findings are derived from the international Delphi survey, the workshop, and the committee's deliberations with the assistance of experts in specific areas. Second, the committee identified the fundamental challenges that must be overcome for the realization of the collective vision generated by the participants. Third, the study focuses on a broad, international view of manufacturing in 2020 rather than on a particular industrial sector.

In the context of this study, "manufacturing" is defined broadly to mean the processes and entities that create and support products for customers. Manufacturing encompasses the development, design, production, delivery, and support of products. In the course of this study, it became increasingly clear that the definition of manufacturing will become even broader in the future as new configurations for the manufacturing enterprise emerge and the distinctions between manufacturing and service industries become blurred.

The committee understands that it would be foolhardy to think that the future can be precisely defined. Nevertheless, the needs identified in this report, which have been validated by visionary leaders of today, will be broadly applicable to all future manufacturing.

Comments on this report can be sent by electronic mail to bmaed@nas.edu or by FAX to BMAED (202) 334-3718.