National Academies Press: OpenBook
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium

Panel Reports

Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee

Board on Physics and Astronomy—Space Studies Board

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
×

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panels responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This project was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NAG5–6916, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST–9800149, and the Keck Foundation.

Cover: The montage on the front cover consists of one image from each of the seven panel reports in this volume. Top left: x-ray image showing loops of million-degree plasma in the solar corona (page 240). Top middle: optical/ infrared image of the stars at the very center of our galaxy in orbit around the putative black hole located there (page 115). Top right: radio map of the giant elliptical galaxy Messier 87 showing the structure of the huge cloud of relativistic plasma encompassing the galaxy and powered by the central black hole (page 187). Middle: x-ray image of the nearby supernova remnant E0102–72.3 showing the expanding shell of hot gas formed by the supernova explosion (page 37). Middle right: simulated interferometric image reconstruction of how an Earth-like planet around a nearby star would appear to the Terrestrial Planet Finder (page 348). Bottom right: artist’s conception of the Laser Inteferometer Space Antenna orbiting Earth and superimposed on the ripples in space-time produced by the gravitational power of merging supermassive black holes (page 144). Bottom left: computer visualization of the hot gas in a theoretical chunk of the universe from a cosmological simulation (page 292).

Library of Congress Control Number: 2001093504

International Standard Book Number: 0-309-07037-6

Additional copies of this report are available from:

National Academy Press,
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet <http://www.nap.edu>

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Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm.A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm.A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE

CHRISTOPHER F.McKEE,

University of California, Berkeley,

Co-chair

JOSEPH H.TAYLOR, JR.,

Princeton University,

Co-chair

DAVID J.HOLLENBACH,

NASA Ames Research Center,

Executive Officer

TODD BOROSON,

National Optical Astronomy Observatories

WENDY FREEDMAN,

Carnegie Observatories

DAVID C.JEWITT,

University of Hawaii

STEVEN M.KAHN,

Columbia University

JAMES M.MORAN, JR.,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

JERRY E.NELSON,

University of California Observatories

R.BRUCE PARTRIDGE,

Haverford College

MARCIA RIEKE,

University of Arizona

ANNEILA I.SARGENT,

California Institute of Technology

ALAN TITLE,

Lockheed Martin Space Technology Center

SCOTT TREMAINE,

Princeton University

MICHAEL S.TURNER,

University of Chicago

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF

DONALD C.SHAPERO,

Board on Physics and Astronomy,

Director

JOSEPH K.ALEXANDER,

Space Studies Board,

Director

ROBERT L.RIEMER, Senior Program Officer

JOEL R.PARRIOTT, Program Officer

GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998–1999)

SÄRAH A.CHOUDHURY, Project Associate (1999–2000)

MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998–2000)

NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant (2000)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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PANEL ON ASTRONOMY EDUCATION AND POLICY

ANDREA K.DUPREE,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,

Chair

R.BRUCE PARTRIDGE,

Haverford College,

Vice Chair (education)

ANNEILA I.SARGENT,

California Institute of Technology,

Vice Chair (policy)

FRANK BASH,

McDonald Observatory, University of Texas

GREGORY BOTHUN,

University of Oregon

SUZAN EDWARDS,

Smith College

RICCARDO GIACCONI,

Associated Universities, Inc.

PETER A.GILMAN,

National Center for Atmospheric Research

MICHAEL HAUSER,

Space Telescope Science Institute

BLAIR SAVAGE,

University of Wisconsin

IRWIN SHAPIRO,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

FRANK SHU,

University of California, Berkeley

NEIL DE GRASSE TYSON,

American Museum of Natural History

PANEL ON BENEFITS TO THE NATION FROM ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

STEPHEN E.STROM,

National Optical Astronomy Observatories,

Chair

DAVID J.HOLLENBACH,

NASA Ames Research Center,

Vice Chair

CONTRIBUTORS TO THE PANEL

ROGER ANGEL,

Steward Observatory, University of Arizona

DOUGLAS DUNCAN,

American Astronomical Society; University of Chicago

ANDREW FRAKNOI,

Foothills College

PAUL GOLDSMITH,

National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, Cornell University

NEAL KATZ,

University of Massachusetts, Amherst

EUGENE LEVY,

University of Arizona

STEPHEN MARAN,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

DAVID MORRISON,

NASA Ames Research Center

LEIF ROBINSON,

Sky Publishing Corporation

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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WILLIAM SMITH,

Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc.

EDWARD STONE,

California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

CHARLES TOWNES,

University of California, Berkeley

VIRGINIA TRIMBLE,

University of California, Irvine, and University of Maryland

PAUL VANDEN BOUT,

National Radio Astronomy Observatory

SIDNEY WOLFF,

National Optical Astronomy Observatories

PANEL ON HIGH-ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS FROM SPACE

ROGER D.BLANDFORD,

California Institute of Technology,

Chair

STEVEN M.KAHN,

Columbia University,

Vice Chair

LARS BILDSTEN,

University of California, Berkeley

FRANCE A.CORDOVA,

University of California, Santa Barbara

JONATHAN GRINDLAY,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

DAN McCAMMON,

University of Wisconsin

PETER MICHELSON,

Stanford University

STEPHEN S.MURRAY,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

RENE ASHWIN ONG,

University of Chicago

CRAIG L.SARAZIN,

University of Virginia

NICHOLAS WHITE,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

STANFORD EARL WOOSLEY,

University of California, Santa Cruz

PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND

ALAN DRESSLER,

Carnegie Observatories, Chair

TODD BOROSON,

National Optical Astronomy Observatories,

Vice Chair

JERRY E.NELSON,

University of California Observatories,

Vice Chair

JILL BECHTOLD,

University of Arizona

RAYMOND CARLBERG,

University of Toronto

BRUCE CARNEY,

University of North Carolina

JAMES ELLIOT,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

RICHARD ELSTON,

University of Florida

ANDREA MIA GHEZ,

University of California, Los Angeles

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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CHARLES LADA,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

JAMES W.LIEBERT,

University of Arizona

CHARLES C.STEIDEL,

California Institute of Technology

CHRISTOPHER STUBBS,

University of Washington

DAVID C.JEWITT,

University of Hawaii,

Ex Officio

PANEL ON PARTICLE, NUCLEAR, AND GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTROPHYSICS

THOMAS K.GAISSER,

University of Delaware,

Chair

MICHAEL S.TURNER,

University of Chicago,

Vice Chair

BARRY BARISH,

California Institute of Technology

STEVEN WILLIAM BARWICK,

University of California, Irvine

EUGENE BEIER,

University of Pennsylvania

JOSHUA FRIEMAN,

Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory

ALICE KUST HARDING,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

RICHARD ALWIN MEWALDT,

California Institute of Technology

RENE ASHWIN ONG,

University of Chicago

BOHDAN PACZYNSKI,

Princeton University Observatory

BERNARD SADOULET,

University of California, Berkeley

PIERRE SOKOLSKY,

University of Utah

RAINER WEISS,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

PANEL ON RADIO AND SUBMILLIMETER-WAVE ASTRONOMY

MARTHA P.HAYNES,

Cornell University,

Chair

JAMES M.MORAN, JR.,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,

Vice Chair

GEOFFREY A.BLAKE,

California Institute of Technology

DONALD B.CAMPBELL,

Cornell University

JOHN E.CARLSTROM,

University of Chicago

NEAL J.EVANS,

University of Texas at Austin

JACQUELINE N.HEWITT,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

KENNETH I.KELLERMANN,

National Radio Astronomy Observatory

ALAN P.MARSCHER,

Boston University

STEVEN T.MYERS,

University of Pennsylvania

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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MARK J.REID,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

WILLIAM J.WELCH,

University of California, Berkeley

DONALD BACKER,

University of California, Berkeley,

Consultant

PANEL ON SOLAR ASTRONOMY

MICHAEL KNOELKER,

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research,

Chair

ALAN TITLE,

Lockheed Martin Space Technology Center,

Vice Chair

DALE EVERETT GARY,

New Jersey Institute of Technology

PHILIP R.GOODE,

New Jersey Institute of Technology

JOSEPH B.GURMAN,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

SHADIA RIFAI HABBAL,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

DANA WARFIELD LONGCOPE,

Montana State University

RONALD LEE MOORE,

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

THOMAS RIMMELE,

National Solar Observatory

JOHN H.THOMAS,

University of Rochester

ELLEN GOULD ZWEIBEL,

University of Colorado, Boulder

PANEL ON THEORY, COMPUTATION, AND DATA EXPLORATION

WILLIAM H.PRESS,

Los Alamos National Laboratory,

Chair

SCOTT TREMAINE,

Princeton University,

Vice Chair

CHARLES ALCOCK,

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory/ University of Pennsylvania

LARS BILDSTEN,

University of California, Berkeley/Santa Barbara

ADAM BURROWS,

University of Arizona

LARS HERNQUIST,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

CRAIG JAMES HOGAN,

University of Washington

MARC PAUL KAMIONKOWSKI,

Columbia University

MICHAEL NORMAN,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

EVE OSTRIKER,

University of Maryland

THOMAS A.PRINCE,

California Institute of Technology

ALEX SANDOR SZALAY,

Johns Hopkins University

ROBERT F.STEIN,

Michigan State University,

Consultant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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PANEL ON ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM SPACE

STEVEN V.W.BECKWITH,

Space Telescope Science Institute,

Chair

WENDY FREEDMAN,

Carnegie Observatories,

Vice Chair

MARCIA RIEKE,

University of Arizona,

Vice Chair

JOSEPH A.BURNS,

Cornell University

DALE CRUIKSHANK,

NASA Ames Research Center

RICHARD S.ELLIS,

University of Cambridge

ALEXEI V.FILIPPENKO,

University of California, Berkeley

MARTIN O.HARWIT,

Washington, D.C.

LYNNE HILLENBRAND,

California Institute of Technology

SHRINIVAS KULKARNI,

California Institute of Technology

ABRAHAM LOEB,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

ROBERT D.MATHIEU,

University of Wisconsin

WARREN MOOS,

Johns Hopkins University

J.MICHAEL SHULL,

University of Colorado

EDWARD L.WRIGHT,

University of California, Los Angeles

DAVID C.JEWITT,

University of Hawaii,

Ex Officio

AD HOC CROSS-PANEL WORKING GROUPS

Astronomical Surveys,

Thomas A.Prince, Chair

Extrasolar Planets,

David C.Jewitt, Chair

Laboratory Astrophysics,

Charles Alcock, Chair

NSF-Funded National Observatories,

Frank Bash, Chair

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY

ROBERT C.DYNES,

University of California, San Diego,

Chair

ROBERT C.RICHARDSON,

Cornell University,

Vice Chair

GORDON A.BAYM,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

WILLIAM BIALEK,

NEC Research Institute

VAL FITCH,

Princeton University

RICHARD D.HAZELTINE,

University of Texas at Austin

JOHN HUCHRA,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

JOHN C.MATHER,

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

CHERRY ANN MURRAY,

Lucent Technologies

ANNEILA I.SARGENT,

California Institute of Technology

JOSEPH H.TAYLOR, JR.,

Princeton University

KATHLEEN TAYLOR,

General Motors Research and Development Center

J.ANTHONY TYSON,

Lucent Technologies

CARL E.WIEMAN,

JILA/University of Colorado, Boulder

PETER G.WOLYNES,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

DONALD C.SHAPERO, Director

ROBERT L.RIEMER, Associate Director

JOEL R.PARRIOTT, Program Officer

ACHILLES SPELIOTOPOULOS, Program Officer

GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998–1999)

SÄRAH A.CHOUDHURY, Project Associate

MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998–2000)

NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD

CLAUDE R.CANIZARES,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology,

Chair

MARK R.ABBOTT,

Oregon State University

FRAN BAGENAL,

University of Colorado

DANIEL N.BAKER,

University of Colorado

ROBERT E.CLELAND,

University of Washington

MARILYN L.FOGEL,

Carnegie Institution of Washington

BILL GREEN, former member,

U.S. House of Representatives

JOHN H.HOPPS, JR.,

Rozewell, Georgia

CHRIS J.JOHANNSEN,

Purdue University

RICHARD G.KRON,

University of Chicago

JONATHAN I.LUNINE,

University of Arizona

ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER,

Columbia University

GARY J.OLSEN,

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

MARY JANE OSBORN,

University of Connecticut Health Center

GEORGE A.PAULIKAS,

The Aerospace Corporation

JOYCE E.PENNER,

University of Michigan

THOMAS A.PRINCE,

California Institute of Technology

PEDRO L.RUSTAN, JR.,

U.S. Air Force (retired)

GEORGE L.SISCOE,

Boston University

EUGENE B.SKOLNIKOFF,

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MITCHELL SOGIN,

Marine Biological Laboratory

NORMAN E.THAGARD,

Florida State University

ALAN M.TITLE,

Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center

RAYMOND VISKANTA,

Purdue University

PETER W.VOORHEES,

Northwestern University

JOHN A.WOOD,

Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics

JOSEPH K.ALEXANDER, Director

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Preface

In 1997, the Board on Physics and Astronomy asked BPA member Anthony Readhead and director Don Shapero to convene a small group of leading astronomers to consider the need for a new decadal survey of astronomy and astrophysics. The group concluded that the time was ripe for a new decadal survey in the 50-year series of such studies. It recommended the establishment of a new Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee to carry out a broad scientific assessment of the field and to recommend new ground- and space-based programs for the decade 2000 to 2010. It also considered the framework for the survey, which ultimately led to the following detailed charge to the committee:

The committee will survey the field of space- and ground-based astronomy and astrophysics, recommending priorities for the most important new initiatives of the decade 2000–2010. The principal goal of the study will be an assessment of proposed activities in astronomy and astrophysics and the preparation of a concise response addressed to the agencies supporting the field, the congressional committees with jurisdiction over these agencies, and the scientific community. The study will restrict its scope to experimental and theoretical aspects of subfields involving remote observations from the Earth and space and analysis of astronomical objects. Missions to make in situ studies of the Earth and planets, which have been treated by other National Research Council and Academy reports, will be excluded. Attention will be given to effective implementation of proposed and existing programs and to the organizational infrastructure and the human aspects of the field involving demography and education. Promising areas for the development of new technologies will be suggested.

A brief review of the initiatives of other nations will be given together with a discussion of the possibilities of joint ventures and other forms of

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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international cooperation. Prospects for combining resources—private, state, federal, and international—to build the strongest program possible for U.S. astronomy will be explored. Recommendations for new initiatives will be presented in priority order within different categories.

The committee will also address two questions posed by the House Science Committee staff: Have NASA and NSF mission objectives resulted in a balanced, broad-based, robust science program for astronomy? That is, NASA’s mission is to fund research that supports flight programs and focused campaigns such as Origins, whereas NSF’s mission is to support basic research. Have these overall missions been adequately coordinated and has this resulted in an optimum science program from a productivity standpoint? What special strategies are needed for strategic cooperation between NASA and NSF? Should these be included in agency strategic plans? How do NASA and NSF determine the relative priority of new technological opportunities (including new facilities) compared to providing long-term support for associated research grants and facility operations?

The committee will consult widely within the astronomical and astrophysical community and make a concerted effort to disseminate its recommendations promptly and effectively.

The two major questions posed by the House Science Committee staff (detailed above) were accompanied by several other questions that were treated in a report entitled Federal Funding of Astronomical Research.1 That report was submitted to the survey committee as input to its deliberations.

The National Research Council established the survey under the auspices of the BPA, which oversaw the study in close consultation with the Space Studies Board. After consultations with members of the National Academy of Sciences Astronomy Section, members of astronomy departments in U.S. universities, and other leading astronomers, the BPA presented a slate of nominees for membership on the survey committee to the chair of the National Research Council. The NRC chair subsequently appointed the 15-member Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee (AASC), with Joseph H.Taylor, Jr., and Christopher F.McKee as co-chairs, to carry out the study.

To provide detailed input to the AASC on the wavelength-based subdisciplines of astronomy and other areas, nine panels were established. Each panel’s vice chair was selected from the membership of the

1  

National Research Council. 2000. Federal Funding of Astronomical Research (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press).

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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AASC. The panel vice chairs were thus able to serve as liaisons between the panels and the main committee and to articulate the priorities of the subdisciplines within the AASC in the process of setting priorities. The panels included more than 100 people, who together were able to encompass the enormous intellectual breadth of modern astronomy and astrophysics.

Each panel met three times and also held two open “town meeting” sessions at the January and June 1999 meetings of the American Astronomical Society. Many of the panel members also held sessions at other professional gatherings, as well as at astronomical departments and centers throughout the United States.

The seven science panels were charged with preparing reports that identified the most important scientific goals in their respective areas, prioritizing the new initiatives needed to achieve these goals, recommending proposals for technology development, considering the possibilities for international collaboration, and discussing any policy issues relevant to their charge. The science panels were as follows:

  • High-energy Astrophysics from Space;

  • Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground;

  • Particle, Nuclear, and Gravitational-Wave Astrophysics;

  • Radio and Submillimeter-Wave Astronomy;

  • Solar Astronomy;

  • Theory, Computation, and Data Exploration; and

  • Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Astronomy from Space.

Their reports are contained in this volume.

The reports of the other two panels—Astronomy Education and Policy, and Benefits to the Nation from Astronomy and Astrophysics— were revised and incorporated into the AASC main report.2 As mentioned above, the AASC also drew on the report Federal Funding of Astronomical Research as well as other NRC reports cited in the text. Further valuable input to the AASC and its panels was provided by four ad hoc cross-panel working groups: Astronomical Surveys (T.Prince, Chair), Extrasolar Planets (D.Jewitt, Chair), Laboratory Astrophysics (C.Alcock, Chair), and NSF-Funded National Observatories (F.Bash, Chair).

2  

Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee, National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press).

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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Members of the survey committee and the panels consulted widely with their colleagues to solicit advice and to inform other members of the astronomical community of the main issues facing the committee. This consultation process provided useful input for the panel reports and also gave the survey committee a good picture of the community consensus on the various initiatives under consideration for inclusion among the priorities of the main report.

At the final AASC meeting in late 1999, the panel chairs participated with members of the survey committee to develop the new decadal survey’s recommendations. The committee based its final recommendations and priorities in significant part on the panel reports and on the discussions with the panel chairs. The overall priorities are presented in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the New Millennium, the report of the AASC. The AASC’s priorities take precedence over those of the panel reports in the present volume. The panel reports contain, in addition to more detailed discussion of these priorities, further projects and topics that were not selected by the AASC for inclusion among the overall priorities that are viewed as having importance for the field as a whole. They also contain cost estimates,3 which formed the basis for the cost estimates in the AASC report. The panel reports were reviewed by the National Research Council together with the AASC report.

3  

The size categories for new initiatives are based on the capital cost for ground-based projects and on the total cost, excluding technology development, for space-based projects. Only costs to be borne by the federal government are included. The AASC’s cost estimates for these initiatives are based on discussions with agency personnel and on presentations to the panels; they are given in FY2000 dollars. For ground-based projects, small projects have capital costs of up to $5 million; moderate, from $5 million to $50 million; and major, above $50 million. In contrast to the practice in previous decadal surveys, the tabulated costs for ground-based capital projects include operations and new instrumentation for 5 years at rates of 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively, of the capital cost per year. In addition, grants for data analysis and associated theory are included at a rate of 3 percent of the capital cost per year for major projects, 5 percent for moderate projects, and 0 percent for small projects. The total costs that were used in the survey committee report for ground-based initiatives are thus typically 1.65, 1.75, and 1.50 times the capital costs for major, moderate, and small initiatives, respectively.

There are several exceptions to these general rules, however. Square Kilometer Array (SKA) technology development includes only funds for a theory challenge, budgeted at $200,000 per year for the decade. The Telescope System Instrumentation Program (TSlP) does not require operations or instrumentation funds and is too fragmented to have a grants program. The National Virtual Observatory (NVO), the National Astrophysics Theory Postdoctoral Program, and the Laboratory Astrophysics Program are not capital projects and therefore have no added costs. The Large-aperture Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) is ex

Page xvii Cite
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The AASC is grateful to the many astronomers, both in the United States and from abroad, who provided written advice or participated in organized discussions. We thank the National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Keck Foundation for providing support for the project. We are grateful to Robert Milkey and Kevin Marvel and to the American Astronomical Society for assistance in the community outreach and town meeting sessions. The committee also acknowledges the assistance of NRC staff members, particularly the outstanding work of Joel Parriott and Roc Riemer, who provided support for the entire project, Susan Maurizi and Liz Fikre, who edited the reports, and the National Academy Press, which published the reports. We are also indebted to Robert Sokol and Ken Van Pool of Design@Large for their innovative design of the booklet that gives an overview of and popularizes the results of the survey. The timely completion of this report would not have been possible without the unstinting efforts of David Hollenbach, who served both as a member of the committee and as Executive Officer. Many other people too numerous to cite individually assisted in various aspects of the survey. We thank them all for their assistance.

Christopher F.McKee and Joseph H.Taylor, Jr., Co-chairs

Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee

   

pected to have significant expenses for data analysis, so the total operations cost estimated by the Panel on Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground has been used for this project.

The cost estimates for space-based initiatives do not include technology development. NASA has adopted a policy of deferring the construction of new missions until all major technological problems have been solved, a policy the committee endorses. These costs are typically about 30 percent of the construction costs of a mission. In some cases, entire missions will serve as precursors for other missions, such as the Space Interferometry Mission for the Terrestrial Planet Finder. The Explorer and Discovery missions are regarded as small initiatives. Since they are peer-reviewed, the committee did not prioritize them. Moderate missions are those with construction, launch, and operations costs between the $140 million cap on Explorer missions and $500 million; major missions have estimated costs above $500 million.

The cost estimates for ground-based projects listed in the reports of the panels are different from those listed in the Executive Summary and the survey committee report, because the costs for projects described by the panels have not been inflated using the calculations described above. The total cost estimates for space-based projects listed in the reports of the panels may differ from those listed in the Executive Summary and the survey committee report in some cases. The Next Generation Space Telescope, discussed in the report of the Panel on Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Astronomy from Space, is an example. Technology development costs were included in some cases and the numbers in the panel reports were not rounded.

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Acknowledgment of Reviewers

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of the survey committee report and/or one or more of the panel reports:

W.David Arnett, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona,

Peter Banks, ERIM International, Inc. (retired),

Gordon A.Baym, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,

Roger Chevalier, University of Virginia,

Anita L.Cochran, University of Texas at Austin,

Marshall H.Cohen, California Institute of Technology,

Anne P.Cowley, Arizona State University,

Val L.Fitch, Princeton University,

Bill Green, former Congressman, New York,

Karen L.Harvey, Solar Physics Research Group,

John P.Huchra, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,

Robert P.Kirshner, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,

Chryssa Kouveliotou, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center,

Richard G.Kron, Yerkes Observatory,

Jeffrey Linsky, University of Colorado/JILA,

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
×

Richard McCray, University of Colorado/JILA,

Melissa McGrath, Space Telescope Science Institute,

Mark Morris, University of California, Los Angeles,

Martin J.Rees, Institute of Astronomy, Cambridge University, U.K.,

Morton S.Roberts, National Radio Astronomy Observatory-Charlottesville,

Patrick Thaddeus, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics,

J.Anthony Tyson, Lucent Technologies, and

David T.Wilkinson, Princeton University.

Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of the survey committee report and of the panel reports was overseen by Nicholas P.Samios, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and Lewis M.Branscomb, John F.Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the reports was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report and the panel reports rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Laboratory Astrophysics,

 

60

   

Theoretical Challenges,

 

61

   

Policy Issues,

 

61

   

Long-Term Scientific Support for Observers,

 

61

   

Junior Faculty Instrumentation Program,

 

62

   

Education and Public Outreach,

 

62

   

Acronyms and Abbreviations,

 

63

2

 

REPORT OF THE PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND

 

65

   

Summary,

 

66

   

Major Initiative, Priority One: GSMT,

 

67

   

Major Initiative, Priority Two: LSST,

 

68

   

Moderate Initiative, Priority One: TSIP,

 

68

   

Science Opportunities,

 

69

   

Answering Fundamental Questions,

 

69

   

Exploiting the Diverse, Unique Facilities of U.S. Ground-based O/IR Astronomy,

 

71

   

Major Initiative, Priority One: Develop and Build a Next-Generation Ground-Based Telescope (GSMT),

 

73

   

Mission Description,

 

73

   

Science with the GSMT,

 

75

   

Theory Challenge for GSMT,

 

88

   

Technology Basis,

 

88

   

Key Technology Issues,

 

89

   

Cost Issues,

 

91

   

Context Issues,

 

93

   

Ancillary Benefits,

 

94

   

Major Initiative, Priority Two: A Large-Aperture Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST),

 

94

   

Mission Description,

 

94

   

Science with LSST: The Wide Area Variability Experiment,

 

95

   

Theory Challenge for LSST,

 

102

   

Data Flow and Information Distribution,

 

102

   

Multiplicative Advantages and Discovery Space Potential,

 

104

   

Technology and Cost Issues,

 

104

   

Context Issues,

 

106

   

Ancillary Benefits,

 

106

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4

 

REPORT OF THE PANEL ON RADIO AND SUBMILLIMETER-WAVE ASTRONOMY

 

167

   

Summary,

 

168

   

Science Opportunities,

 

172

   

The Large-Scale Structure of the Universe,

 

173

   

The Formation and Evolution of Galaxies,

 

178

   

The Formation and Evolution of Stars,

 

190

   

The Formation and Evolution of Planets,

 

194

   

The Origin and Evolution of Life,

 

198

   

Existing Programs,

 

199

   

National Centers,

 

199

   

University Radio Facilities,

 

200

   

Recommended New Initiatives,

 

202

   

Expansion of the VLA,

 

203

   

Square Kilometer Array,

 

205

   

Combined Array for Millimeter Astronomy,

 

207

   

Advanced Radio Interferometry Between Space and Earth,

 

207

   

South Pole Submillimeter Telescope,

 

208

   

Other High-Priority Projects,

 

209

   

Technology for the Future,

 

211

   

Ground-Based Needs and Opportunities,

 

212

   

Space-Based Needs and Opportunities,

 

213

   

Policy Issues,

 

213

   

Open Skies Policy,

 

213

   

Radio Spectrum Management,

 

214

   

The National Radio Astronomy Observatory and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array,

 

214

   

Agency Funding and Management Policies,

 

214

   

Acknowledgments,

 

215

   

Acronyms and Abbreviations,

 

216

5

 

REPORT OF THE PANEL ON SOLAR ASTRONOMY

 

221

   

Summary,

 

222

   

Strategy for the Decade 2001 to 2010,

 

222

   

Observational Efforts,

 

223

   

Theory and Data Mining,

 

224

   

New Technologies,

 

224

   

Policy Issues,

 

225

   

Why Do Solar Physics Research?,

 

225

   

Key to the Magnetodynamic Universe,

 

225

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2001. Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9840.
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Solar-Terrestrial Physics,

 

227

   

Origin and Evolution of Life on Planets,

 

228

   

The Most Significant Advances in the Last Decade,

 

228

   

Goals Achieved,

 

228

   

The Solar-Stellar Connection,

 

230

   

A Systems Approach to Solar Physics—Toward a Decade of Understanding,

 

231

   

The Concept Behind the Solar Magnetism Initiative,

 

233

   

Global Solar Databases,

 

234

   

Operational Forecasting,

 

234

   

International Cooperation,

 

234

   

Existing Programs,

 

236

   

Ground-Based Observational Efforts,

 

236

   

Space-Based Observational Efforts,

 

238

   

New Initiatives,

 

244

   

From the Ground,

 

245

   

In Space,

 

257

   

Theory and Data Mining: The Solar Magnetism Initiative,

 

264

   

Technologies for the Future,

 

266

   

Adaptive Optics,

 

266

   

Solar-Lite,

 

267

   

High-Resolution Vector Magnetometry of UV Lines,

 

267

   

Connection to Laboratory Astrophysics,

 

268

   

Atomic/Molecular/Nuclear Physics,

 

268

   

Plasma Physics,

 

268

   

Policy and Educational Aspects,

 

269

   

The University-Based Solar Physics Community in the United States,

 

269

   

Funding Aspects,

 

270

   

The National Solar Observatory,

 

270

   

Education,

 

270

   

Acronyms and Abbreviations,

 

271

6

 

REPORT OF THE PANEL ON THEORY, COMPUTATION, AND DATA EXPLORATION

 

275

   

Summary,

 

276

   

The Scope of Theoretical Astrophysics,

 

276

   

Theory Initiatives Proposed by This Panel,

 

277

   

Data Exploration Initiative Proposed by This Panel: The National Virtual Observatory,

 

280

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Summary of Panel Findings and Recommendations,

 

282

   

Description of Theoretical Astrophysics,

 

285

   

The New Theorist,

 

285

   

Successes of the Previous Decade,

 

287

   

Theory Challenges Tied to Priority Missions and Projects,

 

293

   

Introduction,

 

293

   

Examples of Theory Challenges,

 

294

   

Computational Threads in Theory Challenges,

 

301

   

The National Virtual Observatory,

 

303

   

Motivation for the NVO,

 

303

   

Major Aspects of the Virtual Observatory,

 

306

   

Project Scope, Structure, and Time Line,

 

310

   

National Postdoctoral Fellowships in Theoretical Astrophysics,

 

312

   

Right-Sizing Theory Support,

 

314

   

Institutional Issues for Theoretical Astrophysics,

 

317

   

Unique Role for the Department of Energy,

 

317

   

Institutes for Visiting Theorists,

 

319

   

High-Performance Computing,

 

320

   

Acronyms and Abbreviations,

 

322

7

 

REPORT OF THE PANEL ON ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM SPACE

 

327

   

Summary,

 

328

   

Major Missions,

 

328

   

Moderate Missions,

 

329

   

Small Missions,

 

330

   

Technology Development,

 

331

   

Science Opportunities,

 

332

   

Assumed Facilities,

 

336

   

The Hubble Space Telescope,

 

336

   

The Space Interferometry Mission,

 

337

   

Recommended New Initiatives,

 

339

   

Major Missions,

 

339

   

Moderate Missions,

 

352

   

Small Missions,

 

367

   

Technology for the Future,

 

369

   

Energy-Sensitive UV/Optical Detectors,

 

369

   

Refrigerators,

 

370

   

Spacecraft Communications,

 

371

   

Ultralightweight (“Gossamer”) Optics,

 

372

   

Acronyms and Abbreviations,

 

372

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In preparing the report,

Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millenium

, the AASC made use of a series of panel reports that address various aspects of ground- and space-based astronomy and astrophysics. These reports provide in-depth technical detail.

Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millenium: An Overview summarizes the science goals and recommended initiatives in a short, richly illustrated, non-technical booklet.

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