The Limits of RECIDIVISM

 

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The Scope of Prisoner Reentry in the United States

Nearly 600,000 people are released from state and federal prisons each year.


As of 2019, more than 6.4 million people were on probation, in jail or prison, or on parole in the United States


1.8 million people were currently incarcerated in the United States as of 2021. Almost all of these individuals will eventually be released.

We currently evaluate success after release from prison by looking at recidivism rates.

Broadly speaking, recidivism refers to a return to criminal activity. Recidivism rates are a profoundly influential measure used not only for understanding the success of individuals released from prison, but also for evaluating the efficacy of the correctional system.

Tracking the success of those released from prison can tell us whether the criminal legal system is fulfilling its mission and whether public investments are being put to effective use. The successful reintegration of those released from prison is also often used as an indicator of public safety. While evaluation of success among individuals released from prison affects perceptions of the performance of institutions and the safety of communities, attempts to evaluate success face serious limitations.

Gaps in Current Measures of Success

1 Ignoring the best available research: The use of recidivism rates to evaluate post-release success ignores decades of research on how and why individuals cease to commit crimes. This process of moving away from criminal activity is called desistance. We now know that desistance often happens as part of a process that may involve setbacks. A binary (yes/no) measure of whether someone has committed a crime can’t capture signs of desistance such as a reduction in seriousness of crime, or increased time between crimes.

2 Missing progress in key reintegration domains: Defining success in terms of abstention from crime ignores progress in domains essential to reintegration including education, health, family support, housing, and employment.

3 Missing the role of structural factors in reintegration: Recidivism rates also fail to capture the important role of structural factors – such as systemic inequalities in access to housing and employment - in shaping post-release outcomes.

4 Incomplete data: Available data presents challenges for the calculation of an accurate and complete recidivism rate. Using administrative records of arrests, convictions, and re-incarceration means that we can’t count crimes that go undetected or unreported, and we may over-count crimes in areas with more strict parole policies or higher police presence.

The Reentry Experience

To understand how to measure reentry success we need to understand the process of reintegration, and the challenges faced by individuals following release from prison. The insights of those who have experienced of incarceration are essential to both understanding reentry and to the development and implementation of new measures of post-release success.

Successful reintegration into society requires more than avoiding criminal legal system involvement, it also requires success in domains such as housing, employment, education, and mental health. At the same time, people leaving prison face complex challenges—widening inequality, declining real wages, lack of access to quality education and employment, a deepening housing crisis, and the enduring effects of structural racism.

Domains of Reintegration

Finding stable, affordable housing, particularly for people convicted of sex crimes, is a significant challenge for those released from prison. Formerly incarcerated people are 10 times more likely than the general public to be homeless. Many formerly incarcerated individuals face financial difficulties securing housing, in addition to being excluded from viable housing options as a result of their criminal record. Stable, secure housing–particularly housing that includes access to supportive services such as mental health or substance use treatment, vocational and employment assistance, and health care–can reduce homelessness for returning individuals and support reintegration and desistance, especially when provided during the first month after release.

Finding employment is another significant concern reported by men and women who are formerly incarcerated. For people recently released from prison or those who have recent criminal legal system involvement, finding a job is challenging, despite increased policy attention to reducing the likelihood of discrimination among these job seekers and new federal protections. Nevertheless, allocating sufficient resources to support structures around employment can help to facilitate employment, a critical factor in reentry success.

Health challenges facing people exiting prison can include serious mental and physical health problems, resulting in higher rates of mental illness, chronic disease, and mortality among this population. One Washington State study found a mortality rate for formerly incarcerated individuals that was 3.5 times higher than for other residents of the state. Many individuals exiting prison also have extensive substance use histories. According to data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, nearly half (47 percent) of individuals released from prison meet the criteria for drug dependence. Other common reentry challenges – including unemployment, poverty, residential instability and reduced social support - are also correlated with poor health outcomes. In addition, formerly incarcerated people often do not have access to health insurance or affordable care.

Levels of high school and college completion are significantly lower for incarcerated individuals. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, an estimated 39% of individuals in state prisons and 26% of individuals in federal prisons had not attained a GED or high school diploma, compared with just 18% of the general population. Educational opportunities upon reentry (and in prison) can offer potential catalysts for personal transformation and desistance. Education in prison can provide needed credentials, as well as space to achieve personal growth, develop new interests, establish bonds with social institutions, and increase mutual support, prosocial modeling, and positive socialization.

Family support following release from prison is associated with higher rates of employment, reductions in substance use, and fewer physical, mental, and emotional problems, as well as the transition away from criminal activity.

Today, approximately 5.2 million U.S. adults remain disenfranchised due to a felony conviction, representing about 2.3 percent of the total U.S. voting eligible population and 6.2 percent of the Black voting eligible population. In addition to holding promise as a marker of broader reintegration and well-being, civic engagement may also support cessation of criminal behavior. Researchers have found clear negative correlations between voting and recontact with the criminal legal system.

Recommendations for Improving the Measurement of Post-Release Success

RECOMMENDATION 1: To ensure more precise and accurate use of the construct of recidivism, researchers, policymakers, and practitioners should (a) specify the exact actions taken by legal authorities (arrest, revocation, conviction, incarceration) included in their measures, (b) clarify the limitations of the data used to measure these actions, and (c) supplement binary recidivism measures with measures of desistance from crime such as the frequency and seriousness of offense, and length of time until a new offense.

RECOMMENDATION 2: Researchers should review existing measures and, as needed, develop, and validate new measures to evaluate post-release success in multiple domains – personal well-being, education, employment, housing, family and social supports, health, civic and community engagement, and legal involvement.

RECOMMENDATION 3: Researchers should review existing measures and, as needed, develop new measures of facilitators of and structural barriers to post-release success in multiple domains, including personal well-being, education, employment, housing, family and social supports, health, civic and community engagement, and legal involvement. These measures should reflect the particular needs and experiences of historically marginalized groups.

RECOMMENATION 4: The National Institute of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, Bureau of Justice Assistance, National Institutes of Health, and other federal agencies and centers whose missions are central to the success of persons released from prison should (a) convene interdisciplinary research advisory panels to assess data, methods, and recommendations for measuring post-release success; (b) request grant proposals from researchers and practitioners, in collaboration with formerly incarcerated persons, to review existing measures of success and develop and validate new measures as needed; and (c) consider questions relevant to the measurement of post-release success in existing survey protocols such as the American Community Survey and data collection efforts in other domains such as education, labor, and health. Private foundations committed to improving success among persons released from prison should support this evaluation independently or in partnership with federal agencies. Governmental and private support should be directed, at a minimum, to the following issues:

  • The quality of records from legal and other social institutions used to monitor post-release success;
  • The utility and feasibility of linking records across multiple administrative domains;
  • The utility and feasibility of linking existing administrative data with instruments measuring personal well-being;
  • The development of a website containing core measures of success across multiple administrative domains; and
  • The eventual development of national standards for measuring post-release success.

Learn More

The Limits of Recidivism: Measuring Success After Prison (2022)

This project was sponsored by Arnold Ventures.