Supporting Individual Risk Assessment During COVID-19


Many individual states and localities have loosened or eliminated mitigation measures as the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved. Individuals have to make their own COVID-19 mitigation decisions in an environment that may have returned to pre-pandemic norms. They must assess their level of risk and risk tolerance amid different mitigation measures, regulations, and metrics across states and localities. The public is also exposed to misinformation and disinformation through mainstream and social media—all occurring within a politically polarized environment.

This rapid expert consultation draws on existing social, behavioral, and decision science research to identify actionable guidance for state, local, and tribal decision makers seeking to help members of the public make their own and others’ risk assessments related to COVID-19.

 

Strategies for Supporting Individual Risk Assessment for COVID-19


People are faced with many decisions—for example, “Should I visit my family?” “Should I get tested before that visit?” “Should I go to a concert?” “Should I wear a mask?”

The science of risk communication studies how to help people assess risks; use those assessments in their decision making; and, where necessary, defend them. The strategies below draw on the science of risk communication for meeting the key challenges facing state, local, and tribal decision makers seeking to encourage sound risk assessment and decision making by individuals in their specific communities.

Officials need to explain how their decisions are made and why they change over time. Transparency demonstrates respect for the public’s right to know and its ability to understand. Officials can prepare the public for expected changes that will occur as part of the pandemic and frame official statistics, recommendations, and policies as adaptive, rather than erratic.

Being transparent can improve credibility, which is essential for effective communication. One critical strategy is to partner with community-serving organizations that can provide trusted channels, tailor messages, and hear community concerns. Greater trust in information sources is associated with greater adherence to recommendations.

In an open society, with multiple information sources, health officials are vulnerable to criticism if they exaggerate risks in order to motivate action or underplay them in order to reassure the public. Members of the public report that they want to know the truth, even it is bad. In fact, providing negative information can increase trust. Acknowledging uncertainty can actually build trust and does not undermine confidence in the information or its source.

Public health officials must recognize and respect individuals’ autonomy in making decisions for themselves and their families. Empowering that autonomy means making the information people need to exercise it authoritative, comprehensible, and accessible.

Preparatory research is essential for all communications, especially when sharing unfamiliar information with diverse individuals from different backgrounds. Rigorously developed messages can make potentially complex scientific information clear. When officials make a recommendation (e.g., wearing masks, returning to school), they need to explain its rationale and acknowledge individuals’ right to choose.

Effective dissemination also requires preparatory research and can benefit from community partnerships to make messages accessible.

Public health officials must acknowledge the deep emotions and practical challenges that can accompany the decisions individuals are now asked to make. When decisions are difficult to make and carry out and their outcomes are uncertain, communications need to acknowledge those realities, which demonstrates empathy and sympathy for decision makers’ circumstances.

Narratives have been found effective in other health settings, resulting in better recall and fewer counterarguments. COVID-19 stories that contextualize risks, without resorting to fear tactics, can help people assess risk by envisioning possible situations and creating mental models for how to behave in them. Narratives that acknowledge the challenges that individuals face, and their capabilities, can show empathy, emotion, compassion, and concern. These narratives can also address the weariness that many people feel with the prolonged pandemic.

Public health officials can foster public engagement by partnering with trusted community organizations that support two-way communications, helping to convey health information and hear individuals’ needs.

A two-way process between officials and community leaders who are trusted and credible includes:

  1. continuous community engagement: establishing two-way community channels and hearing multiple voices;
  2. engagement across multiple channels: using multiple channels to accommodate those who cannot attend in-person meetings, those who cannot access the internet, those who are incarcerated, and those who speak other languages;
  3. timeliness: monitoring and anticipating community needs; and
  4. trustworthiness: maintaining transparency and providing information when problems are encountered.

Strategies can also include acknowledging the public’s contributions and sacrifices in the collective response to the pandemic and tailoring the content and delivery method of information to the audience’s social contexts, such as group identities, age, gender, resources, and norms.

CONCLUSION


The continuing evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic has seen a shift from societal control to individual decision making. If individuals are to bear that responsibility effectively, they need support in assessing risks and choosing among ways to manage them. Central to that support is clear, accurate, transparent, agile, trustworthy information, delivered by trusted, credible messengers in ways that people can easily access, understand, and use. Central to these strategies is listening to people in order to understand their needs, desires, constraints, and resources, and then continuing to listen when revising communications as people respond and circumstances change.

Learn More


This rapid expert consultation was produced by SEAN, an activity of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine that is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. SEAN links researchers in the social, behavioral, and economic sciences with decision makers to respond to policy questions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. This project is a collaboration with the National Academies’ Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, which is sponsored by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Read the guidance online at https://www.nap.edu/resource/26629/interactive.

How can SEAN help?


Are you a policy maker? Do you have a question you need answered? SEAN will consider the most pressing questions and engage the nation’s experts to focus on your challenges. Contact us at SEAN@nas.edu or 202-334-3440.

SEAN is a network of experts in the social, behavioral, and economic sciences poised to assist decision makers at all levels as they respond to COVID-19. The network appreciates any and all feedback on its work. Please send comments to SEAN@nas.edu