Under the Weather Climate, Ecosystems, and Infectious Disease (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-7
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In modern times, our increasing capabilities to detect and predict climate variations such as the E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, coupled with mounting evidence for global climate change, have fueled a growing interest in understanding the impacts of climate on human health, particularly the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents.
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For instance, climate-related impacts must be understood in the context of numerous other forces that drive infectious disease dynamics, such as rapid evolution of drug- and pesticide-resistant pathogens, swift global dissemination of microbes and vectors through expanding transportation networks, and deterioration of public health programs in some regions. Also, the ecology and transmission dynamics of different infectious diseases vary widely from one context to the next, thus making it difficult to draw general conclusions or compare results from individual studies.
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These protections, however, depend upon maintaining strong public health programs and assuring vaccine and drug access in the poorer countries of the world. Climate change may affect the evolution and emergence of infectious diseases.
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Ecological responses on the timescale of an E1 Nino event, for example, may be significantly different from the ecological responses and social adaptations expected under long-term climate change. Also, long-term climate change may influence regional climate variability patterns, hence limiting the predictive power of current observations.
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The input of stakeholders such as public health officials and local policymakers is needed in the development of disease early warning systems, to help ensure that forecast information is provided in a useful manner and that effective response measures are developed. The probabilistic nature of climate forecasts must be clearly explained to the communities using these forecasts, so that response plans can be developed with realistic expectations for the range of possible outcomes.
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The committee encourages the establishment of research centers dedicated to fostering meaningful interaction among the scientists involved in these different research activities through long-term collaborative studies, short-term information-sharing projects, and interdisciplinary training programs. The National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis provides a good model for the type of institution that would be most useful in this context.
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Finally, the committee wishes to emphasize that even if we are able to develop a strong understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious diseases, and in turn, are able to create effective disease early warning systems, there will always be some element of unpredictability in climate variations and infectious disease outbreaks. Therefore, a prudent strategy is to set a high priority on reducing people's overall vulnerability to infectious disease through strong public health measures such as vector control efforts, water treatment systems, and vaccination programs.
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