Future Roles and Opportunities for the U.S. Geological Survey (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Future Societal Trends
Future Societal Trends
Pages 37-60
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From page 37... ...
This rate of growth is slower than the peak global growth rate from 1965 to 1970 of about 2.1 percent per year. However, the declining growth rate involves a larger population base, and according to one scenario, the world population is expected to increase and is to reach 8.9 billion in 2050 (Figure 3.1)
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From page 38... ...
In the United States, ~ of the 10 largest metropolitan areas are situated along the oceans or the Great Lakes. The development of coastal zones, which puts more people and property at risk from natural hazards, produces extensive land-cover changes and disturbs fragile marine environments.
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From page 39... ...
It is the lead federal science agency responsible for addressing a host of water issues such as water quality, water availability and conservation, and hydrologic hazards (NRC, 1 997b, 1 999c)
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From page 40... ...
The average new home contains approximately 240,000 pounds of mineral products. Although the United States has less than 5 percent of the worId's population and approximately 7 percent of the worId's land area, it uses about 30 percent of the worId's mineral resources (National Mining Association, 1998~.
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From page 41... ...
As a major producer and consumer of minerals, the United States faces important societal decisions about the supply and development of essential minerals. Making informed decisions about the development of mineral deposits depends on having current, reliable, and unbiased information on mineral resources and the environmental implications of their development.
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From page 42... ...
During the course of the next few decades, if less carbon-intensive fuels become more important components ot the tuei supply, natural gas may become the transition fuel to a less fossil fuel-based economy. The United States has a substantial remaining resource base of natural gas, sufficient with a continuing pace of technology and resource accessibility to move the nation into a methane economy.
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From page 44... ...
Thus, information and knowledge about this renewable resource are essential to human welfare everywhere. Because water resource issues in the United States and elsewhere are unlikely to diminish in upcoming decades, it appears probable that USGS information on streamflows and water use, regional water resource studies, and hydrologic research will be more important in the future than in the present.
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From page 45... ...
Although the degradation of water quality can be arrested and sometimes reversed, the process is slow and costly, as exemplified by the experience of developed countries over the past 30 years. In the United States, passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972 resulted in marked improvement in water quality of streams and rivers that receive discharges from municipal waste treatment plants and industrial facilities (point source pollution)
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From page 46... ...
46 Future Roles and Opportunities for the USGS concern over the next two decades, particularly as aging stockpiles begin to deteriorate. Modeling and monitoring the surface and subsurface movement of wastes at existing sites will be of particular importance.
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From page 47... ...
The need for USGS information on biological resources and ecosystems may become more important in upcoming decades in light of concerns about the loss of biological diversity and ecosystem services due to increased urban and infrastructure systems, rapidly changing land use patterns, and rising consumption. We are increasingly aware of how much our well-being depends on biological diversity and the integrity of ecological communities.
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From page 48... ...
These services include food, construction materials, medicinal plants, wild genes for domestic plants and animals, crop and plant pollination, absorption and detoxification of pollutants, generation and maintenance of soils, and the regulation of air and water quality as well as climate (EhrTich and EhrTich, 1991~. In addition, biodiversity is the foundation of biotechnology.
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From page 49... ...
When Americans perceive that degraded environmental conditions constitute a serious threat to their quality of life, the passage of legislation designed to reduce this threat often follows. Examples include the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act.
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From page 50... ...
Old lead and lead-soldered waterpipes Regional scarcity of potable water Clean Dwellings and Workplaces Indoor air contaminants (including radon) Old lead-based paint Asbestos Outgassing from construction and finishing materials Toxic substances used in homes and workplaces Safe Food Supply Pesticide residues Plant uptake of contaminants Effect of pollution on crops Safe Disposal of Human Waste Effective waste isolation/collection Sanitary waste disinfection Safe Disposal of Household and Industrial Waste Waste reduction and recycling Landfill technology and use Radioactive waste storage, treatment, and disposal Incineration emissions and ash Offshore disposal Industrial wastewater treatment Infrastructure needs Habitat and Species Conservation Riparian degradation Tropical ecosystem degradation Temperate ecosystem degradation Polar ecosystem degradation Marine ecosystem degradation Wetlands degradation Endangered species Species extinction
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From page 51... ...
Future Societal Trends Leaking fuel tanks Overfishing Diffuse-source contamination Pollutant Salt and heavy metal contamination Salt water inflow Clean Drinking Water Drinking water pollutants Biological contamination Herbicide and pesticide effects Land use changes Environmental Restoration Mining and extractive industry reclamation Military base reclamation Industrial site reclamation Effects of engineered watersheds and modified hydrologic flow patterns Ecological function impairment Assessment of"restored" sites, including wetlands Environmental Impacts on Human Health Cancer Birth defects Genetic susceptibility Endocrine modulators Neurotoxicity Immune dysfunction Asthma and other respiratory dysfunction Cardiovascular disease Effects of multiple exposures 51 bioaccumuIation/bioconcentration Habitat alteration, fragmentation, and Destruction Overarching Issues Long-Term Sustainability Climate change Human population growth Ozone depletion Land-use patterns Natural resource allocation Conservation of non-renewable resources Long-term environmental monitoring Economic mechanisms for environmental improvement Industrial ecology Assessment and Management of Risks Risk assessment methodologies Human exposure pathways Ecosystem exposure pathways Assessment of ecological risk Toxicity and measures of effects Effects of multiple exposures and stressors Psychology and perception of risk Undoubtedly, the USGS will be asked to address overarching environmental problems in the future. Solutions of these social problems requires a broad research program that is capable of developing complex system models and using advanced technology.
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From page 52... ...
By playing a strong role on behalf of the United States in promoting, facilitating, and conducting international and global studies to develop critical science information, the USGS lends support to national security as well as foreign policy and private sector interests as the following examples illustrate: 1. The larger world population of the future will be concentrated in developing countries.
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From page 53... ...
The United States depends heavily on imported oil and minerals. In addition, more favorable mineral exploration and mining statutes, as well as better mineral prospects and lower operating and labor costs in foreign countries, have encouraged many mineral companies to increase operations abroad.
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From page 54... ...
This information can be obtained through some combination of efforts involving universities, federal agencies, and the private sector. However, independent and reliable science information in the service of national security and foreign policy interests is obtained most appropriately through a federal science agency.
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From page 55... ...
The future holds exciting opportunities to use information machines to develop process models, build scenarios, and make projections about resources and complex earth and life systems. The widespread diffusion of the Bernet and World Wide Web provides opportunities for the USGS to reach a broader and more diverse customer base with information about earth system processes and resources in the future.
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From page 56... ...
~~ ~~ i; ~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ·2. the Denver suburb of public heanng on a new t ~a,nsit'sfop orr the proposed west~orridor i§,r der way.
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From page 57... ...
It is important that USGS employees be perceived as socially growing conscious, preeminent experts especially when collecting and providing data that bear on major urban and industrial development. There is resentment and lack of trust in many African-American and Native
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From page 58... ...
58 Future Roles and Opportunities for the USGS All other Occupations & Groups 121 Hydrologic Tech 252 Chemistry 24 Ecology ~ 28 Total Under-Represented = 621 As of September 30, 2000 General Biological Science 36 Fishery Biology 39 Wildlife Biology 54 Hydrology 67 Figure 3.4 Number of hires needed to reach parity with the civilian labor force, categorized by discipline. SOURCE: Data supplied by USGS.
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From page 59... ...
Finding durable solutions to emerging environmental problems will oblige scientists to work within a broad research program whose results wit} be applicable to a range of environmental issues. In the more connected world of the twenty-first century, many natural science issues within the purview of the USGS will have an international and global focus, and understanding them will be valuable for national security and public policy reasons.
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