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From page 223... ... , 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108117, 156 tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 6769, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation (AO) , 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 committee research recommendations, 2, 154 modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154 general circulation models (GCMs) Read the entire page →
From page 224... ... , 83,92,97,99-100,101,103,104 modeling, other, 75 clouds, 71,73,80,83-84,85,86,87 committee research recommendations, 3 fires, 3,9,135,136,141,158,164,166 ice core evidence, 6,19,25-30,36,66, 135-136,162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30,32 ozone layer depletion, 58 water vapor, 71,83-84 B Biodiversity, 17,108,128,136-137,138, 141,147,157 Boreholes, 21,22 C Carbon dating, see Radiocarbon measurements Carbon dioxide, 22,77,80,83,89,111, 114,131-132,138,143,144, 150-151 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 158 Central America and the Caribbean, 31-32, 34-35 Chaotic processes, 2,3,14,73,74,75,76, 91,92,94,99,107,120,121, 135,145,146,149,154,155, 158,165 Chlorofluorocarbons, 47,66,165 Clouds, 71,73,80,83-84,85,86,87 Coastal zones, 3,47,72 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9,166 socioeconomic impacts of sea-level rise, 129-131,133 Younger Dryas in Europe, 31 D Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37,74, 77,83,89 INDEX Decadal variations, 6,48,46,52,153 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation droughts, 43-44,53-55 forest dieback, 134-135 global warming, 116 Holocene droughts, 40,43,44,45,74, 119,144 Definitional issues abrupt climate change, general, 14-15 climate, general, 72 Dendrochronology, 19-20,21,24,42,135 droughts, 19, 135 Developing countries, 8,140-141,164-165, 167 Diseases, see Health effects Droughts, 1, 15-16,19,20,53-55,57,70, 108,118-119,128,133,134, 135-136,143-144,148,152 Dust Bowl, 43-44,53-55 Holocene period, 40,43,44,45,74, 119,144 tree ring evidence, 19, 135 wetlands, 139 Dust, 21,25,27,30,36,80,83,86,144 Dust Bowl, 43-44,53-55 E Ecological impacts, 6,15-17,118,120-141, 154-155 committee research recommendations, 23,154-155,157-159,161,162 definitional issues, 14 forests, 3,84,86,128,129,133-136 (passim) , 138,142-144 modeling, 4,159,160-161 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9,164-166 US National Assessment, 11 wetlands, 25,136,139,163 Economic factors, 6,16-17,60,118-152, 154-155,167 agriculture, 17,53,57,114,119,123125,128,133,137,138,141142,143,145,148,152; see also Drought coastal zones, 129-131,133 committee research recommendations, 23,4,154-155,157-159,160, 161,162 Read the entire page →
From page 225... ... , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 Glaciers, see Land ice Global Change Research Program, 2, 17 Global warming, 8, 43, 55, 62, 82, 105, 107-117, 137 see also Greenhouse gases freshwater balance, 110, 113-114 socioeconomic impacts, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152 Greenhouse effect, 1, 86, 107-117, 113, 137, 138, 146-147 see also Global warming carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151 dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147 Read the entire page →
From page 226... ... 226 "no-regrets" strategies, 8, 165 water vapor, 71, 83-84 Greenland, 6, 15, 36-37, 77, 83, 102, 135136, 139-140, 156, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 fisheries, 60 Younger Dryas interval, 25-29, 30, 37 Groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 H Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 Historical observations, 3, 7, 11, 45-48, 5369, 70-72, 74 see also Economic factors; Social influences and effects committee report methodology, 17 forest dieback, 135 Holocene rapid climate change, 42, 4344 Historical perspectives, research, 19, 46 modeling, 74-75 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-45, 52, 69-70, 74, 119, 144 Hurricanes, 125, 165-166 Hydrology, 54, 70, 110, 114, 154, 156-157 see also Floods; Freshwater balance; Oceans; Precipitation committee research recommendations, 2, 3, 7 groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 Holocene floods, 65 Hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99 I Ice, 2, 3, 21, 154 see also Land ice sea ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 7880, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 INDEX Ice ages, 1, 10, 14-15, 23, 38, 45, 69-70, 77-78, 107 Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163 Ice core evidence, 6, 19, 24, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32 Indian Ocean, 67, 68, 72 El Nino, 50, 53 tropical variability, 52-53 Younger Dryas, 35-36 Insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166 Interannual variations, 5, 6, 7, 42, 49 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation; Ice core evidence Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 5758 Interdisciplinary approaches, see Multidisciplinary approaches Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 116, 133 International Civil Aviation Organization, 61 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 42 Isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 Younger Dryas interval, 25, 30, 33-34 L Land ice, 3, 20, 22, 52, 73, 78-80, 86, 8889, 139-140, 145, 154, 156-157 see also Greenland; Ice ages; Ice core evidence Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37 freshwater discharges from, 76, 101, 116-117 global warming, 113-115 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-41 interglacial periods, 38-40 methane releases, 87-88 models, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105 Read the entire page →
From page 227... ... , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 global warming, 60, 111-112, 113-114, 131-132, 159 historical perspectives, 74-75 instrumental measures and, 46 land ice, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105 mechanical analogy of climate change, 12-13 227 nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 ocean, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 general circulation models (GCMs) , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 sea-level rise, coastal zone impacts, 129131 social, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161 thermohaline circulation, 64, 75, 76, 91102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 two-box models, 74-75, 95-103 Younger Dryas interval, 83, 102, 105 Monte Carlo simulations, 92 Multidisciplinary approaches, 6, 120, 133, 159, 161, 162 N National Wildlife Health Center, 158 New Zealand, 33 Nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 "No-regrets" strategies, 8-9, 164-166 North America, 128 Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81 drought, Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 North Atlantic Oscillation, 57 Younger Dryas, 31, 34 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Read the entire page →
From page 228... ... 228 Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 models, other than GCMs, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 see also Thermohaline circulation deepwater, 2, 3, 4, 34, 36-37, 38, 47, 63, 66, 67, 76, 77, 78, 79, 103104, 108, 154, 155-156, 160, 162 fisheries, 60, 61, 138 forcing, response to, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104 heat transport, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86; see also Thermohaline circulation ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 isotopic measurements, 23 methane releases, 87-88 paleoclimatology, 6-7 sea level, 39, 78,109,114,115,116,131, 140, 156, 130-131, 133, 148 sea surface, 36, 47, 50, 51, 52, 61-62, 64-65, 71-72, 77, 78, 82, 84, 90, 101, 104, 109-110 Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation sediments and corals, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129 Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 sinks, 47-48, 71, 89, 109 Ozone layer depletion, 58 p Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 51-52, 67, 68 Pacific North American pattern, 50 Pacific Ocean, other, 67, 70, 77-78, 84, 90, 156 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Paleoclimate proxies and age indicators, 10, 11, 19-55, 88-89, 113, 114, 118, 153, 156 INDEX see also Ice core evidence; Sediment analyses biodiversity, 136-137 committee report methodology, 17 committee research recommendations, 2, 5-7, 154, 161-163 Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 forest dieback, 134-135 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23 precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 118 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 models, 83, 102, 105 PAst Global changES (PAGES) , 42 Permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113114, 116-117, 136, 157 Policy perspectives, 1-2 definitional issues, 14 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9, 164-166 Pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 58, 84-85, 86, 110, 114, 118, 122, 132, 137, 152, 153, 156-157 see also Droughts; Floods R Radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 3334, 47, 108 Recreation and leisure, 148, 149 Regional climate change, 1, 10, 11, 16, 49, 58, 59, 70, 135, 155 see also Droughts; Floods; Tropical regions; specific world regions and oceans Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41, 42 human population migrations, 140-141 "no-regrets" strategies, 9 pollen evidence, 30-34, 39 socioeconomic impacts, 129-132 Younger Dryas interval, 30-34 Read the entire page →
From page 229... ... , 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117 Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156 modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds Transport processes see also "circulation" under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86 see also Thermohaline circulation sea ice, 3, 38 Tree rings, see Dendrochronology Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation; Indian Ocean Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Holocene droughts, 44 wetlands, 25 Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35 Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra Two-box models, 74-75, 95-103 Read the entire page →
From page 230... ... 230 U US Global Change Research Program, see Global Change Research Program US National Assessment, 11 V Vegetation, 54-55, 137 agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141142, 143, 145, 148, 152 forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim) , 133, 134, 135-136, 138, 142-144 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Venezuela, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27 W Water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166 see also Drought Water vapor, 71, 83-84 INDEX Wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163 lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39 Wind, 21, 22, 36, 62, 65, 66, 81, 89, 104 Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Younger Dryas, 25, 27, 29, 35 y Yale/NBER Program on International Environmental Economics, 18 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 Africa, 33-34, 35 Antarctica, 26, 35 Atlantic Ocean, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Europe, 30-31, 34 Greenland, 25-29, 30, 37 Indian Ocean, 35-36 isotopic indicators, 25, 30, 33-34 models, 83, 102, 105 North America, 31, 34 salinity, 25, 79 sediment analyses, 14, 15, 24-36 South America, 26, 27, 32-33, 34 tropical regions, 27, 33, 34, 35 wind, 25, 27, 29, 35 Read the entire page →

From page 223...

... , 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61, 62, 65, 67-68, 90, 113, 134 thermohaline circulation, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108117, 156 tropical variability, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Younger Dryas, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Atmosphere-ocean interactions, 47, 62, 6769, 71, 75-76, 80-83, 84-85, 90, 108, 110, 112 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation (AO) , 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 committee research recommendations, 2, 154 modeling of, 75-76, 82-83, 94, 101, 114, 154 general circulation models (GCMs)

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From page 224...

... , 83,92,97,99-100,101,103,104 modeling, other, 75 clouds, 71,73,80,83-84,85,86,87 committee research recommendations, 3 fires, 3,9,135,136,141,158,164,166 ice core evidence, 6,19,25-30,36,66, 135-136,162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30,32 ozone layer depletion, 58 water vapor, 71,83-84 B Biodiversity, 17,108,128,136-137,138, 141,147,157 Boreholes, 21,22 C Carbon dating, see Radiocarbon measurements Carbon dioxide, 22,77,80,83,89,111, 114,131-132,138,143,144, 150-151 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 158 Central America and the Caribbean, 31-32, 34-35 Chaotic processes, 2,3,14,73,74,75,76, 91,92,94,99,107,120,121, 135,145,146,149,154,155, 158,165 Chlorofluorocarbons, 47,66,165 Clouds, 71,73,80,83-84,85,86,87 Coastal zones, 3,47,72 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9,166 socioeconomic impacts of sea-level rise, 129-131,133 Younger Dryas in Europe, 31 D Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37,74, 77,83,89 INDEX Decadal variations, 6,48,46,52,153 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation droughts, 43-44,53-55 forest dieback, 134-135 global warming, 116 Holocene droughts, 40,43,44,45,74, 119,144 Definitional issues abrupt climate change, general, 14-15 climate, general, 72 Dendrochronology, 19-20,21,24,42,135 droughts, 19, 135 Developing countries, 8,140-141,164-165, 167 Diseases, see Health effects Droughts, 1, 15-16,19,20,53-55,57,70, 108,118-119,128,133,134, 135-136,143-144,148,152 Dust Bowl, 43-44,53-55 Holocene period, 40,43,44,45,74, 119,144 tree ring evidence, 19, 135 wetlands, 139 Dust, 21,25,27,30,36,80,83,86,144 Dust Bowl, 43-44,53-55 E Ecological impacts, 6,15-17,118,120-141, 154-155 committee research recommendations, 23,154-155,157-159,161,162 definitional issues, 14 forests, 3,84,86,128,129,133-136 (passim) , 138,142-144 modeling, 4,159,160-161 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9,164-166 US National Assessment, 11 wetlands, 25,136,139,163 Economic factors, 6,16-17,60,118-152, 154-155,167 agriculture, 17,53,57,114,119,123125,128,133,137,138,141142,143,145,148,152; see also Drought coastal zones, 129-131,133 committee research recommendations, 23,4,154-155,157-159,160, 161,162

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From page 225...

... , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 Glaciers, see Land ice Global Change Research Program, 2, 17 Global warming, 8, 43, 55, 62, 82, 105, 107-117, 137 see also Greenhouse gases freshwater balance, 110, 113-114 socioeconomic impacts, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152 Greenhouse effect, 1, 86, 107-117, 113, 137, 138, 146-147 see also Global warming carbon dioxide, 22, 77, 80, 83, 89, 111, 114, 131-132, 138, 143, 144, 150-151 dust, 21, 25, 27, 30, 36, 80, 83, 86, 144 methane, 25, 27, 30, 36, 83, 87-88, 108, 109, 136, 147

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From page 226...

... 226 "no-regrets" strategies, 8, 165 water vapor, 71, 83-84 Greenland, 6, 15, 36-37, 77, 83, 102, 135136, 139-140, 156, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 fisheries, 60 Younger Dryas interval, 25-29, 30, 37 Groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 H Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 Historical observations, 3, 7, 11, 45-48, 5369, 70-72, 74 see also Economic factors; Social influences and effects committee report methodology, 17 forest dieback, 135 Holocene rapid climate change, 42, 4344 Historical perspectives, research, 19, 46 modeling, 74-75 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-45, 52, 69-70, 74, 119, 144 Hurricanes, 125, 165-166 Hydrology, 54, 70, 110, 114, 154, 156-157 see also Floods; Freshwater balance; Oceans; Precipitation committee research recommendations, 2, 3, 7 groundwater, 20, 22, 54, 117, 139, 145, 146, 157 Holocene floods, 65 Hysteresis, 93-94, 95, 98-99 I Ice, 2, 3, 21, 154 see also Land ice sea ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 7880, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 INDEX Ice ages, 1, 10, 14-15, 23, 38, 45, 69-70, 77-78, 107 Little Ice Age, 43, 45, 56, 57, 74, 163 Ice core evidence, 6, 19, 24, 25-30, 36, 66, 135-136, 162 Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 42 Younger Dryas interval, 25-30, 32 Indian Ocean, 67, 68, 72 El Nino, 50, 53 tropical variability, 52-53 Younger Dryas, 35-36 Insurance, 9, 148, 164, 166 Interannual variations, 5, 6, 7, 42, 49 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation; Ice core evidence Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60, 62, 65, 67-68, 113 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 5758 Interdisciplinary approaches, see Multidisciplinary approaches Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 116, 133 International Civil Aviation Organization, 61 International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, 42 Isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 Younger Dryas interval, 25, 30, 33-34 L Land ice, 3, 20, 22, 52, 73, 78-80, 86, 8889, 139-140, 145, 154, 156-157 see also Greenland; Ice ages; Ice core evidence Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37 freshwater discharges from, 76, 101, 116-117 global warming, 113-115 Holocene rapid climate change, 40-41 interglacial periods, 38-40 methane releases, 87-88 models, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105

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From page 227...

... , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 GENESIS model, 82 global warming, 60, 111-112, 113-114, 131-132, 159 historical perspectives, 74-75 instrumental measures and, 46 land ice, 75-76, 83, 101, 102, 105 mechanical analogy of climate change, 12-13 227 nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 ocean, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 general circulation models (GCMs) , 83, 92, 97, 99-100, 101, 103, 104 sea-level rise, coastal zone impacts, 129131 social, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161 thermohaline circulation, 64, 75, 76, 91102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 two-box models, 74-75, 95-103 Younger Dryas interval, 83, 102, 105 Monte Carlo simulations, 92 Multidisciplinary approaches, 6, 120, 133, 159, 161, 162 N National Wildlife Health Center, 158 New Zealand, 33 Nonlinearities, 2, 3, 14, 73, 74, 75, 76, 91, 92, 94, 99, 107, 120, 121, 135, 145, 146, 149, 154, 155, 158, 165 "No-regrets" strategies, 8-9, 164-166 North America, 128 Atlantic thermohaline circulation, 81 drought, Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55 North Atlantic Oscillation, 57 Younger Dryas, 31, 34 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

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From page 228...

... 228 Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 models, other than GCMs, 75, 76, 82, 91-102, 160 see also Thermohaline circulation deepwater, 2, 3, 4, 34, 36-37, 38, 47, 63, 66, 67, 76, 77, 78, 79, 103104, 108, 154, 155-156, 160, 162 fisheries, 60, 61, 138 forcing, response to, 46, 52, 62, 65, 79, 93-94, 95, 103-104 heat transport, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86; see also Thermohaline circulation ice, 3, 38, 46, 47, 48, 62, 65, 71, 78-80, 113-114, 115, 117, 154 Antarctica, 26, 35, 36, 65-67, 69, 77, 78 Arctic Ocean, 65, 114, 117, 140 isotopic measurements, 23 methane releases, 87-88 paleoclimatology, 6-7 sea level, 39, 78,109,114,115,116,131, 140, 156, 130-131, 133, 148 sea surface, 36, 47, 50, 51, 52, 61-62, 64-65, 71-72, 77, 78, 82, 84, 90, 101, 104, 109-110 Antarctic Oscillation, 49 Arctic Oscillation, 48, 49, 50, 52, 57-58, 60 North Atlantic Oscillation, 44, 49, 57-58, 60-61 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation sediments and corals, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129 Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115 sinks, 47-48, 71, 89, 109 Ozone layer depletion, 58 p Pacific Decadal Oscillation, 51-52, 67, 68 Pacific North American pattern, 50 Pacific Ocean, other, 67, 70, 77-78, 84, 90, 156 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Paleoclimate proxies and age indicators, 10, 11, 19-55, 88-89, 113, 114, 118, 153, 156 INDEX see also Ice core evidence; Sediment analyses biodiversity, 136-137 committee report methodology, 17 committee research recommendations, 2, 5-7, 154, 161-163 Dansgaard/Oeschger oscillations, 36-37, 74, 77, 83, 89 dendrochronology, 19-20, 21, 24, 42, 135 forest dieback, 134-135 Heinrich events, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115, 108 radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 33-34, 47, 108 isotopic indicators, 20, 22-23 precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 118 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 models, 83, 102, 105 PAst Global changES (PAGES) , 42 Permafrost/tundra, 3, 22, 57, 70, 88, 113114, 116-117, 136, 157 Policy perspectives, 1-2 definitional issues, 14 "no-regrets" strategies, 8-9, 164-166 Pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Precipitation, 21, 23, 53, 58, 84-85, 86, 110, 114, 118, 122, 132, 137, 152, 153, 156-157 see also Droughts; Floods R Radiocarbon measurements, 21, 24, 30, 3334, 47, 108 Recreation and leisure, 148, 149 Regional climate change, 1, 10, 11, 16, 49, 58, 59, 70, 135, 155 see also Droughts; Floods; Tropical regions; specific world regions and oceans Eemian climate change, 39 Holocene rapid climate change, 40, 41, 42 human population migrations, 140-141 "no-regrets" strategies, 9 pollen evidence, 30-34, 39 socioeconomic impacts, 129-132 Younger Dryas interval, 30-34

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From page 229...

... , 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117 Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156 modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160 Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds Transport processes see also "circulation" under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86 see also Thermohaline circulation sea ice, 3, 38 Tree rings, see Dendrochronology Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149 see also El Nino/Southern Oscillation; Indian Ocean Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110 Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87 Holocene droughts, 44 wetlands, 25 Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35 Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra Two-box models, 74-75, 95-103

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From page 230...

... 230 U US Global Change Research Program, see Global Change Research Program US National Assessment, 11 V Vegetation, 54-55, 137 agriculture, 17, 53, 57, 114, 119, 123125, 128, 133, 137, 138, 141142, 143, 145, 148, 152 forests, 3, 84, 86, 128, 129, 133-136 (passim) , 133, 134, 135-136, 138, 142-144 fires, 3, 9, 135, 136, 141, 158, 164, 166 pollen, 23, 30-34, 39 Venezuela, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27 W Water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146, 152, 156, 166 see also Drought Water vapor, 71, 83-84 INDEX Wetlands, 25, 136, 139, 163 lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39 Wind, 21, 22, 36, 62, 65, 66, 81, 89, 104 Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47 Younger Dryas, 25, 27, 29, 35 y Yale/NBER Program on International Environmental Economics, 18 Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36, 37, 41, 74, 77, 79, 89, 128, 163, 165 Africa, 33-34, 35 Antarctica, 26, 35 Atlantic Ocean, 34, 35-36, 76-77 Europe, 30-31, 34 Greenland, 25-29, 30, 37 Indian Ocean, 35-36 isotopic indicators, 25, 30, 33-34 models, 83, 102, 105 North America, 31, 34 salinity, 25, 79 sediment analyses, 14, 15, 24-36 South America, 26, 27, 32-33, 34 tropical regions, 27, 33, 34, 35 wind, 25, 27, 29, 35

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Index Pages 223-230

Index
Pages 223-230