The Advanced Technology Program Assessing Outcomes (2001) / Chapter Skim
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Panel III: Stimulating R&D Investment
Panel III: Stimulating R&D Investment
Pages 131-144
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From page 131... ...
As a case in point, he introduced Maryann Feldman of Johns Hopkins University, who presented an assessment of the added value of ATP awards. ASSESSING THE ATP: HALO EFFECTS AND ADDED VALUE Maryann Feldman Johns Hopkins University Dr.
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From page 132... ...
, seeking answers to two questions: Does the ATP application process reward risky, broad-based research projects? Does the ATP award encourage subsequent investment by private investors?
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From page 133... ...
The ATP program is intended to help unsuccessful applicants by providing information on proposal deficiencies and selection criteria. Unsuccessful applications may request debriefings by the technical and business specialists who serve on review boards.
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From page 134... ...
In TABLE 3 Tendency of Non-winners to Pursue the Proposed Technologies Extent of Follow-Up Activity Percentage Did not proceed with the project at all Began project on a much smaller scale Began project on a somewhat smaller scale Began project at about the same scale as proposed to ATP Began project at somewhat larger scale Began project on a much larger scale Refused to answer, or don't know 61.4 16.4 11.7 5.3 2.9 0.6 1.8
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From page 135... ...
Awards Serve as Quality Signals This difference in success rates suggests that ATP awards are signals of quality for private investors and other funding sources. To test this suggestion, we asked companies about the sources of funding to which they applied.
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From page 136... ...
Awardee companies express greater willingness than non-winners to share research results with other firms; this reinforces the precompetitive nature of the selected projects. Reflecting the program's goals, our analysis shows that ATP winners have higher quality technologies and stronger business plans with greater potential economic impacts; ATP winners are far more willing to share information on the results of their research; ATP winners take greater risks, starting entirely new R&D inquiries with new partners; and · underscoring the importance of the awards and the high-risk nature of the technologies, most non-winners do not pursue the ATP proposed technologies by themselves.
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From page 137... ...
In the air-handling parts of engines, precise flow and volume control can pay great dividends in fuel efficiency and power, for example, by reducing turbulence and imbalances in intake air. The joint venture was to develop automated techniques, using neural-network feedback systems and acoustic emissions detection, for machining metal parts to precise levels of flow and volume, thereby significantly increasing overall performance of a machine such as an automobile engine.
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From page 138... ...
We modeled then two scenarios: an initial five-year adoption on the equivalent of a single production line; and a longer-term adoption, like that of front-wheel drive or fuel injection. In both scenarios we assumed that the new flow-machining technologies would improve automobile fuel efficiency by 6 percent (as estimated by Extrude Hone)
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From page 139... ...
Two new process technologies Significant increases in precision of flow and volume ATP Project: 1995-1999 · ATP funding = $3.9 million · Company funding = $4.0 million · Members: · Extrude Hone Corporation · University of Pittsburgh · University of Nebraska · Ford · General Motors · Informal Supply Chain Advisors Increased fuel economy of auto engines Impacts on Auto Industry Extrude Hone Corporation Industry GDP Industry Employment Manufacturing Non-manufacturing Income Tax Revenues Near-Term Estimate Longer-Term Estimate $1.6 million/year $142 million/year $1.9 billion/year 1,800 29,000 (1,800)
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From page 140... ...
For these reasons, that industry tolerates processes that do not quite "work." It is a nurturing environment, in which a process can be refined and improved and perfected, and eventually once it is perfect make the transition to the diesel engine market and then to the broader automotive industry. Ordinarily the transition from the complex geometries and difficult materials of the aerospace industry to the high-volume production of the automobile industry takes 10 to 20 years or, in "Dot.com" parlance, 40 to 80 Web years.
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From page 141... ...
The theme is illustrated by the technologies pursued in our two ATP projects: · Flow-Control Machining, and · 3D Printing. Flow-Control Machining The technology we developed in our first ATP project involves passing an abrasive putty compound through the internal passages of an ordinary cast and machined part, which enables us to control the shape and smoothness of areas of the part that normally cannot be reached with ordinary machine tools.
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From page 142... ...
Materials can be recycled or otherwise controlled at the point of assembly. For manufactures, the design freedoms offered by this approach include · selective porosity; · reduced assembly; · new materials; · electronic information exchange; and · intricately complex geometries, which allows designers, for example, to create internal conformal cooling lines in metal tooling to reduce molding cycle times.
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From page 143... ...
QUESTIONS FROM THE AUDIENCE Bernard Gelb of the Congressional Research Service asked Maryann Feldman about her statistical controls in the survey she had reported on. The 50 percent response rate for the companies not selected for ATP grants is quite good, but was there any control for self-selection in comparing responses of winners and non-winners in as much as the firms themselves choose whether to respond?
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From page 144... ...
Doing so would strengthen the case for concluding that ATP projects fund technologies that would not be able to attract private capital that the program does not compete with private funding sources. We have considered that strongly, Dr.
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