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1. Carbon Management: The Challenge
Pages 7-32

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From page 7...
... S government or any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights.
From page 8...
... Emissions trajectories consistent with five alternative concentration limits are shown in Figure 1.1. Key characteristics associated with emissions paths consistent with CO2 concentrations limits are shown in Table 1.1.
From page 9...
... IS92 scenario series.7 Historical declines in carbon intensity and energy intensity have been more than offset by increases in population and GNP per capita. IPCC carbon emissions scenarios shown in Figures 1.2-1.5 span a range of trajectories.
From page 10...
... Contrary to popular belief,8 there is no practical resource limit to human ability to load fossil fuel carbon into the atmosphere. While the resource base of conventional oil and gas is limited, the amount of carbon stored in fossil fuels is not.
From page 11...
... There is no serious prospect for "running out" of fossil fuels during the course of the twenty-first century. Therefore, the idea that society will soon develop noncarbon energy forms to provide for growing energy demands, because there is no fossil fuel alternative, is unlikely.
From page 12...
... As discussed earlier, other concentration limits could as easily have been selected. The TABLE 1.2 Carbon Content of Fossil Fuel Energy Resources Potentially Available After 1990 Range of Additional Resources plus Resource Resource Base Occurrences Additional Energy Form Base (PgC)
From page 13...
... The excess of carbon emissions associated with any reference trajectory over those needed to limit the concentration to some prescribed level can be thought of as defining a "gap." Clearly the technology mix must change for that gap to be closed. Either new or improved energy technologies, or both, will be needed to close the gap.
From page 14...
... In the AOG scenario, oil and gas prices remain low because usable resources are never exhausted. The lower energy prices imply a higher level of final energy consumption, but the lower carbon content of the primary energy inputs to the system leaves carbon emissions similar to those of the CBF scenario.
From page 15...
... CARBON MANAGEMENT: THE CHALLENGE 15 1,800 1,600 CBF Nuclear 1,400 Solar Exajoules per year 1,200 Hydro Biomass 1,000 800 Coal 600 400 200 Natural Gas Oil 0 19 9 0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 1,800 1,600 AOG Nuclear 1,400 Solar Hydro 1,200 Biomass Exajoules per year 1,000 Coal 800 600 Natural Gas 400 200 Oil 0 19 9 0 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095 FIGURE 1.8 Reference case energy emissions for the coal bridge to the future (CBF) and abundant oil and gas (AOG)
From page 16...
... We assume that the efficiency of carbon capture will increase with time (i.e., new and improved technologies and processes will come on-line that reduce the energy penalty associated with powering the capture systems)
From page 17...
... cFreund and Ormerod 1997. 12Note that the figures listed in Table 1.3 for "energy penalty for carbon capture" and "additional investment costs for capture system" are largely consistent with midrange estimates of these parameters published by the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas Programme (1996)
From page 18...
... (IPCC, 1996b) estimate that between 40 and 80 Pg of fossil fuel carbon emissions might be offset in existing croplands by applying soil carbon sequestration techniques over the course of the next 50 to 100 years.
From page 19...
... In addition, we ignore the problem of institutional mechanisms to ensure that the required change in agricultural practices is actually carried out. The purpose of this exercise is to examine the potential contribution of soil carbon capture to an overall strategy of global carbon management.
From page 20...
... The quantities of carbon captured over the course of the next century in the carbon-constrained scenarios examined here thus do not strain the potential capacity of total reservoirs. However, while we recognize the potential of carbon capture and sequestration technologies to add an important new element to the set of climate mitigation technologies, it is also important to point out that these are part of a larger suite of technologies whose composition varies over time and space.
From page 21...
... 25,000 Conservation Soil Carbon Sequestration 20,000 Synfuel-Carbon Capture and Sequestration 15,000 Carbon Capture and Sequestration from Hydrogen Production Central Power-Carbon Capture 10,000 and Sequestration Solar and Hydro 5,000 Nuclear Biomass 550 ppmv Emissions 0 2095 2080 2065 2050 2035 2020 2005 1990 FIGURE 1.9 Comparison of technologies that fill the gap under alternative reference scenarios and a 550-ppmv CO2 limit. Abscissa in millions of tonnes of emitted carbon displaced by conservation, sequestration, and alternate energy-producing technologies.
From page 22...
... First, technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration, commercial biomass, and hydrogen fuel cells that fill the gap are, with the exception of energy conservation, not presently significant contributors to the global energy system. Carbon capture and sequestration technologies, which expand dramatically, deploy only when carbon is valued.
From page 23...
... The existence of a multitude of additional uncertainties, only some of which are subject to human influence, greatly complicates the selection of an R&D portfolio that lays the foundation for a effective technological response to carbon management. Only investments in energy R&D can create a technology portfolio to address a cumulative emissions limit, and although the results of R&D investments are uncertain -- it is impossible to predict the benefit of each dollar invested -- successful investments yield large social benefits.
From page 24...
... That is, additions to the energy-related capital stock must improve end-use energy efficiency, provide energy with non-fossil energy forms, or provide a mechanism by which to capture and sequester carbon. 1 2 9 8 3 7 6 4 1 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 FIGURE 1.11 The changing composition of French transport since 1800.
From page 25...
... Multiple energy technologies play important roles in limiting cumulative emissions of carbon. No single technology ever captures more than a fraction of the global energy system market.
From page 26...
... The general decline in global energy R&D is not restricted to the public sector. Where data are available for the private sector, a similar pattern is observed.
From page 27...
... Atmospheric stabilization requires fundamental change in the global energy system. The present global energy system relies primarily on fossil fuels.
From page 28...
... Given the complexity and time frame of the climate problem, flexibility is of the essence. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The work reported here is an outgrowth of research conducted under the Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project to Address Climate Change (GTSP)
From page 29...
... International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas Program. Benson, S., W
From page 30...
... 1998. Global Energy Perspectives.
From page 31...
... Tom Schelling at the University of Maryland suggested that the biggest problem facing us is keeping the rate of population growth from overwhelming the resource base. We may end the twentyfirst century with the fertility rate dropping through the floor, while we try to maintain a population on the planet.
From page 32...
... Alan Wolsky: Let me illustrate my question by asking another and giving a speculative answer. We know water is a greenhouse gas.


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