From page 9... ...
Climate is an increasingly important element of the public and private decision-making process. Advances in monitoring and predicting variations in climate, coupled with growing concern over the potential for climate change and its impact, are yielding an increased awareness of the importance of climate information for enhancing economic vitality, maintaining environmental quality, and limiting threats to life and property (Changnon 2000~.
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From page 10... ...
The system of dams constructed along the Colorado River allows storage of four times the average annual flow as a hedge against low-flow years and as a means to maintain treaty requirements. Historical climate records are also used to set "safe" levels of water storage and Prevent emergency water releases that would cause downstream flooding (e.g., ~
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From page 11... ...
The combination of historical observations, paleoclimate data, and efforts to develop a hierarchy of coupled models is increasing the understanding of the causes and character of climate fluctuations, although the nature of decade to century climate variability remains an important topic of research (NRC 1995, 1 998c)
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From page 12... ...
The nature of the uncertainties associated with climate forecasts. The accessibility of credible and useful climate information by decision The ability of users and providers to identify each other's needs and · The ability of users to respond to useful information.
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From page 13... ...
adopted three general categories of climate variability and change: seasonal to interannual variability, decadal to century climate variability, and changes in climate induced by human activities, such as emission of greenhouse gases. A climate service must focus on very different types of activities to address all of these major categories of variability and change.
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From page 14... ...
to use climate information a season to a year in advance. The assessments of long-term potential changes in the global and regional climates as a result of anthropogenic factors add to the demands and variety of potential climate services.
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From page 15... ...
Products of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) include both extended weather outlooks and climate information.
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From page 16... ...
coastal exposure and community protection from severe storms and (2) weather derivatives, describe services built directly on analyses of historical observations but for which there is a growing demand for enhanced predictive capability.
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From page 17... ...
Insurance industry experts estimated that up to 40 percent of the insured damages could have been avoided if building codes that were developed using more accurate climate information had been enforced (Pielke and Pielke 1997~. The fact that damages were much greater than expected (an estimated $15.5 billion in insured damages and total damages about twice that)
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From page 18... ...
Viticulture has a strong climatological signal, with a lack of sunshine and cool temperatures from pre-bloom to maturation producing poor grape years and excess precipitation causing grape rot. The 1998 California grape harvest was 30 percent lower than the norm because of poor weather conditions.
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From page 19... ...
These include the availability of NCDC databases; the formation of private climate service companies that provide clean, standardized data directly for weather risk assessment at a large number of locations; the development of stochastic modeling tools as an aid in risk analysis; and the development of operational seasonal forecasts at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) , particularly involving ENSO (WeatherRisk 2000~.
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From page 20... ...
For example, California spent $7.5 million on floodinglandslide preparedness efforts and alerting the public, and the roofing and home repair industry reported $125 million in completed mitigation activities (Changnon 1999~.
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From page 21... ...
In the Stray for Poli~ymakers, the IPCC identiftes the importance of the maintenance and improvement of the global observing system, the monitoring of key climate elements, the incorporation of prehistorical data into the examination of the climate record, the development of comprehensive climate models, and focused process studies as the foundation for advice to policy makers (IPCC 2001~. The United States, as directed by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, has also undertaken a National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, a landmark effort to examine the potential consequences for the regions of the nation, including coastal regions, and for forestry, water, agriculture, and human health.
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From page 22... ...
The applications are also growing with the increased understanding of how climate influences human endeavors. That a weather derivatives industry, designed to manage risk associated with climate variability, is growing rapidly and expanding to include diverse elements of commerce and industry is indicative of the importance of climate services to the nation.
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