Studies of Welfare Populations Data Collection and Research Issues (2002) / Chapter Skim
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12 Studies of Welfare Leavers: Data, Methods, and Contributions to the Policy Process
12 Studies of Welfare Leavers: Data, Methods, and Contributions to the Policy Process
Pages 385-414
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From page 385... ...
Part IV Welfare Leavers and Welfare Dynamics
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A Study of Washington State TANF Leavers and TANF Recipients Washington-5* A Study of Washington State TANF Leavers and TANF Recipients Wisconsin-1 Post- Exit Earnings and Benefit Receipt Among Those Who Left AFDC in Wisconsin Wisconsin-2 Employment and Earnings of Milwaukee County Single Parent AFDC Families: Establishing Benchmarks for Measuring Employment Outcomes Wisconsin-3 Survey of Those Leaving AFDC or W-2: January to March 1998 Preliminary Report Wyoming A Survey of Power Recipients Sanctioned Leavers Iowa Michigan New Jersey Iowa's Limited Benefit Plan: Summary Report A Study of AFDC Case Closures Due to JOBS Sanctions: April 1996 AFDC Case Closures Survey of WFNJ/TANF Case Closed to Sanction *
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" Although cash assistance caseloads have dropped dramatically, from 4.4 million in August 1996 to 2.4 million in December, 1999, declining caseloads are not the sole criterion for a successful reform. Indeed, there is concern about the well-being of families who have left welfare: Are families leaving cash assistance postreform worse off than leavers proreform?
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Although most are explicitly studies of welfare leavers, some are studies of specific state welfare programs and reforms. We include these latter studies because they provide significant amounts of information on welfare leavers.
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WHAT LEAVER STUDIES SHOULD MEASURE The primary role of leaver studies is to assess and track the well-being of welfare leavers; associating changes in the well-being of welfare leavers to changes in welfare policy plays a secondary role. Thus, an assessment of leaver studies requires us to address the following questions: · What do we mean by well-being?
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Quarter 3 1996 Leavers: PRELIMINARY REPORT California- Examining Circumstances of Individuals and Families who Anne Mom San Mateo County* Leave TANF: Assessing the Validity of Administrative Data District of Columbia*
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GREGORYACS AND PAMELA LOPREST 391 Author(s) Date Data Used 8 Karen L
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Wisconsin- 1 TANF Closed-Case Telephone Survey Former Clients of South Carolina's New Welfare Program: Trends and Issues in Surveys to Date Survey of Former Family Independence Program Clients: Cases Closed During April Through June 1997 Survey of Former Family Independence Program Clients: Cases Closed During July Through September 1997 Summary of Surveys of Welfare Recipients Employed or Sanctioned for Noncompliance Texas Families in Transition: The Impacts of Welfare Reform Changes in Texas: Early Findings Fairfax Welfare Reform Evaluation Study Conversations with 65 Families Washington's TANF Single-Parent Families Shortly After Welfare Washington's TANF Single-Parent Families After Welfare A Study of Washington State TANF Leavers and TANF Recipients A Study of Washington State TANF Leavers and TANF Recipients Post-Exit Earnings and Benefit Receipt Among Those Who Left AFDC in Wisconsin Wisconsin-2 Employment and Earnings of Milwaukee County Single Parent AFDC Wisconsin-3 Wyoming Sanctioned Leavers Pennsylva Donald M South Ca South Car Center for Families: Establishing Benchmarks for Measuring Employment Outcomes Survey of Those Leaving AFDC or W-2: January to March 1998 Preliminary Report A Survey of Power Recipients Texas Den Carole Kl; City of So and Hu: Washingt. Washingt.
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Klos Survey South Carolina Department of Social Services 12-Jun-98 Survey ts: South Carolina Department of Social Services 9-Oct-98 Survey or Center for Manpower Studies Mar-98 Survey Reform Texas Department of Human Services Dec-98 Survey Carole Kuhns, Danielle Hollar, and Renee Loeffler Survey City of Seattle Department of Housing Mar-98 Survey and Human Services Fter Welfare Washington Department of Social and Health Services Ju1-98 Survey fare Washington Department of Social and Health Services Jan-99 Survey F Recipients Jay Ahn Feb-OO Administrative F Recipients Debra Fogerty and Shon Kraley Feb-OO Survey Who Marcia Cancian, Robert Haveman, Thomas Kaplan, Oct-98 Administrative and Barbara Wolfe e Parent AFDC University of Wisconsin- Milwaukee, Employment Administrative ~ployment and Training Institute arch 1998 Institute for Research on Poverty- 13-Jan-99 Survey University of Wisconsin Western Management Services May-98 Survey Thomas M Fraker May-97 Survey ns: April 1996 Laura Colville, Gerry Moore, Laura Smith, May-97 Survey and Steve Smucker New Jersey Division of Family Development, Bureau Mar-98 Survey of Quality Control
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From page 394... ...
One goal of welfare reform is to foster stable families, but the strain of balancing a job and child care may be profound on low-income single mothers. Thus, it is also important to understand if leavers' families are breaking up, with children being sent off to live with friends or relatives.
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In addition, states should think about how to tailor their leaver studies to garner information that is of specific interest to them. LEAVER STUDY METHODS Defining Welfare Leavers .
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396 STUDIES OF WELFARE LEAVERS: DATA, METHODS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS TABLE 12-2 Leaver Population Studied Child Only Definition All Continuous Sanctioned Cases State of Leavera Leaversb LeaversC Leavers Excluded Arizona-1 1 month x x x Arizona-2 2 months x x California-Los Angeles Co. 2 months x California-San Mateo Co.
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Many of the studies have chosen to define their leaver study cohort over a 3-month period. The specific calendar time period chosen for defining the leaver sample also will likely affect results.
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Administrative: 1 year; Survey: 12-18 months 1 year 1 year 1 year Administrative data: 18 months; Survey: 1 year 3 years 1 year 1 yaer 6 months 10 months 4-11 months Administrative: One year; Survey: 6-8 months n.a.
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Indeed, results from the studies using administrative data reveal that returns to welfare 1 year after exit range from 13 percent to 40 percent. Thus, presentation of results for all leavers and continuous leavers is preferred.
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Data Used in Leaver Studies Studies of welfare leavers rely heavily on two types of data: state administrative records and direct surveys of welfare leavers.3 Each source can provide valuable but limited information about some aspects of the well-being of welfare leavers. Administrative Data Twenty-one of the 49 leaver studies we review use administrative data as shown in Table 12-4.
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District of Columbia Florida Georgia- 1 Georgia-2 Illinois-2 4Q98 1997 lQ97 3Q97-4Q98 1 year 1 year 1 year Employment, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) , Food Stamps, childcare subsidy, child support, child welfare Employment, TANF, Food Stamps, Medicaid Employment 1 year Employment, TANF, Food Stamps, Medicaid 18 months TANF, Food Stamps, Medicaid 3 years 1 year 1 year 1 year Employment, TANF, Food Stamps Employment, TANF Employment, TANF Employment, TANF, Food Stamps, Medicaid, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC)
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Nineteen of the 21 studies link their program data with state UI data. Note that using administrative data to assess the status of welfare leavers often requires researchers to link information across various data systems.
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Survey Data Surveys of welfare leavers are particularly good at obtaining information that is beyond the scope of administrative data systems. For example, in addition to employment and wage information, a survey can obtain data on job characteristics nonwage benefits, training, and work-related expenses.
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As Table 12-1 shows, eight studies use both survey and administrative data to study the same cohort of leavers.8 In the following sections, we describe steps researchers can take to examine the accuracy of employment information from administrative data and assess the accuracy and representativeness of survey data. None of these techniques can completely address the potential shortcomings in the data, but if they are employed, they can help readers weigh the findings reported in any given leaver study.
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The responses of leavers generally refer to employment about 6 months to a year after exit. Table 12-6 compares these selfreported employment rates with fourth quarter post exit employment rates computed from administrative data.
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For example, a survey may ask, "In the year since you exited welfare, have you ever received food stamps? " Because this information is reported in administrative data, it is possible to see if survey respondents are providing reliable information.
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In general, we would expect respondents to lead more stable lives than nonrespondents and to be more eager to share good news with survey takers. To the extent that nonresponse bias is a problem in these surveys, we would expect surveys with lower response rates to generally show that welfare leavers are better off.
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410 STUDIES OF WELFARE LEAVERS: DATA, METHODS, AND CONTRIBUTIONS TABLE 12-8 Employment Earnings of Employed Welfare Leavers: Survey Data Findings by Survey Response Rate State Hours Worked Earnings Panel A: Response Rate Greater Than 70% Arizona- 1 # Indiana 61% worked 35 or more hours a week Michigan # Mississippi Missouri-2 North Carolina South Carolina-2 South Carolina-3 Washington-5 Average number of hours worked: 35 Average number of hours worked: 39 37.9% worked 40 or more hours Average number of hours worked: 36 Average number of hours worked: 36 Average number of hours worked: 36 Panel B.: Response Rate Between 50% and 70% District of Columbia Average number of hours worked: 36 Illinois-2 Median number of hours worked: 37 Massachusetts # Oklahoma Tennessee Washington-3 Wisconsin-3 Average number of hours worked: 34 35% worked full time Average number of hours worked: 36 57% worked 40 or more hours a week Panel C: Response Rate Less Than 50% Idaho-1 40% worked 30 or more hours a week Illinois- 1 Kentucky Montana New Mexico New York-1 Pennsylvania Texas Virginia Washington-2 Wyoming Average wage: $7.52 40.7% earned $7 or more an hour 53.2% earned $400 or more a month Average wage: $5.77 ## Median monthly salary: $849.76 Average wage: $6.44 Average wage: $6.45 Average wage: $7.70 Average wage: $8.74 Median wage: $7.42 63.3% income $250 or more a weeka Average wage: $6.15 Average wage: $5.67 Average wage: $8.09 Average wage: $7.42 Average number of hours worked: 35.8 73.5% worked 35 or more hours 47% worked 21 or more hours 74.6% worked 30 or more hours 40% worked 35 or more hours 62% worked 30 or more hours Average numbers of hours worked: 34 # Average hours worked: 34 # 21% earned $7 or more an hour Median wage: $7.11 40.9% earned $7 an hour or more ## 29% earned $7 or more an hour ## 59% earned $6.50 or more an hour Average wage: $6.28 Median monthly salary: $1,160 Average wage: $8.42 83% earned $7.50 or more an hour aAverage weekly earning for full-time work is $305. # Hours worked not reported.
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Researches use two relatively straightforward techniques to assess the extent of nonresponse bias in surveys of welfare leavers. The first technique involves using administrative data on the entire survey sample and comparing respondents to nonrespondents.
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They can help policy makers identify the problems that families who have left welfare are facing, and the ongoing capacity built by states and the research community will provide a baseline for formulating and evaluating future reforms. This paper examines the methodologies used in a large set of leaver studies, identifies preferred practices for conducting such studies, and discusses the implications of research methods for the interpretations of the findings reported in these studies.
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In addition, nonresponse bias is potentially an important problem in leaver studies. By using administrative data available for both survey respondents and nonrespondents, researchers can gauge the extent to which respondents differ from leavers in general.
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Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development 1998 Differences between AFDC and W-W Leavers Survey Data for January-March 1998 and Wisconsin UI Wage Records for 1998.
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