Future R&D Environments A Report for the National Institute of Standards and Technology (2002) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Appendix H: Trends in Science and Technology
Appendix H: Trends in Science and Technology
Pages 167-198
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 167... ...
H Trends in Science and Technology Patrick Young CONTENTS INTRODUCTION TRENDS IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Computers, Lithography, and Thin Films, 168 Data Density, 170 Flat Displays and Printed Circuitry, 172 The Internet, 174 168 168 Imaging, 175 TRENDS IN MATERIALS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Micro- and Nanoscale Fabrication, 177 Photonics, 179 Superconductors, 180 TRENDS IN ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, AND THE PLANET 183 Energy, 184 Environment and Ecology, 185 Atmospheric Sciences and Climatology, 187 Earthquake Studies, 188 177 TRENDS IN BIOMEDICAL AND AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 189 Genomics and Proteomics, 190 Neuroscience, 191 Drug Development, 193 Agrobiotechnology, 194 BLENDING THE PHYSICAL AND THE BIOLOGICAL Biotech and Materials Science, 195 167 195
|
From page 168... ...
Two advanced fabrication approaches are under investigation at a time when the industry is also in transition from the use of aluminum to copper for circuit lines and is seeking ways to further shrink the size of transistors. Computer makers expect to vastly increase data storage over the next decade, using new magnetic and optical techniques that include magnetic thin films, near-field optics, holography, and spintronics.
|
From page 169... ...
Line widths of 200 nanometers are now in use, but by the end of this decade or soon after, lithography as we know it will likely reach its physical limits. The industry is now pursuing two advanced lithography techniques as potential replacements for the current technology.
|
From page 170... ...
Data Density More bits per square inch is almost a mantra in the computer data-storage field. But as with photolithography, traditional magnetic and optical storage techniques are approaching their own physical limits, which will require innovative solutions to overcome.
|
From page 171... ...
Because this technique could yield 12 trillion magnetic "posts" or "wires" over a single square centimeter, each separated from the others by plastic, it could result in magnetic storage significantly higher than the 40-gigabit limit imposed by superparamagnetism on conventional systems. Indeed, it might someday boost data density into the terabit range.
|
From page 172... ...
However, electrons also have spin, and electron spin is harnessed in magnetic storage. Spintronics seeks to manipulate electron spin in semiconductor materials for data storage and perhaps quantum computing.
|
From page 173... ...
Advances in all these areas are needed to bring to market such envisioned products as high-sensitivity chemical sensors, roll-up television screens, wide-area displays, and plastic lasers. Electronic Paper This technology may change the configuration and the way we use portable electronic devices such as cell phones and laptops as well as reinvent how newspapers, books, and magazines are "printed" and read.
|
From page 174... ...
Ways to do this at low cost and in large volume using standard printing processes or inkjet printers are in development. Working with funds from the Advanced Technology Program, for example, Motorola has teamed with Dow Chemical and Xerox in a 4-year effort to develop novel organic materials and techniques for printing electronic devices.
|
From page 175... ...
Optical microscopy, the oldest of the imaging sciences, and imaging holography could find new uses. Improvement in synchrotron-radiation resolution promises sharper images of such things as chemical-bond orientation, individual magnetic domains, solid-state reactions, catalysts, and the surfaces of semiconductors.
|
From page 176... ...
One current approach to developing nondestructive imaging on the nanoscale combines two established technologies scanning probe microscopy and molecular spectroscopy. The aim is to harness the high spatial resolution offered by scanning probes and molecular spectroscopy's chemical specificity to explore the chemical details of nanometer structures.
|
From page 177... ...
TRENDS IN MATERIALS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Fabrication at the micro- and nanoscale level will yield a number of new devices and products, ranging from exquisite sensors to tiny walking robots and automated labs-on-a-chip. Key to such advances is understanding how to control the materials used and the development of new molecular manipulation and micromachining tools.
|
From page 178... ...
One approach to greater specificity would harness the spatial resolution of scanning probe microscopy with the chemical specificity of molecular spectroscopy. Sensors Microfabrication and MEMS devices will play increasingly greater roles in the development and manufacture of high-tech sensors.
|
From page 179... ...
The development of wavelength division multiplexing has opened a progressive revolution in data transmission, storage, and processing that could match that of electronics in the 20th century. Although most photonic circuits today are analog, the development of low-cost photonic integrated systems will enable uses beyond communications, including signal processing and exquisite sensors.
|
From page 180... ...
Significant improvements in key photonic devices seem a certainty in the next decade, including in-fiber optical filters (known as fiber Bragg gratings) , infiber amplifiers, and fiber lasers.
|
From page 181... ...
77 K is the boiling point of nitrogen and the point above which many believe superconductors can be widely commercialized. This discovery suggests similar chemical tinkering may raise the currentcarrying capacity of other high-temperature superconductor compounds.
|
From page 182... ...
Potential applications include tiny
|
From page 183... ...
Even more challenging is the creation of materials that self-assemble from two or more types of molecules. TRENDS IN ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, AND THE PLANET Fuel cells will enter the marketplace shortly as part of the power systems of automobiles and for use as portable electric generators, and they may soon provide power for smaller devices such as cell phones and laptop computers.
|
From page 184... ...
Two potential energy sources for producing the needed hydrogen from water are high-efficiency solar cells and nuclear power plants. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs)
|
From page 185... ...
Environmental Pollutants One growing concern is the question of hormone disrupters, or hormone mimics, which are environmental chemicals that evidence suggests may interact with the endocrine systems of humans and animals to cause birth defects and several cancers. A key element in investigating the issue is the need to develop reliable, short-term assays to identify hormone-disrupting chemicals.
|
From page 186... ...
Genomics' Role The mapping of the human genome will play a significant role in understanding how environmental factors affect human health and the genetic susceptibility of people to various chemical pollutants and infectious agents. The first challenge is to identify genes and/or specific polymorphisms that interact with these agents, as well as metabolic, nutritional, and behavioral factors.
|
From page 187... ...
Global Warming The vast majority of scientists who have assessed the issue now regard global warming, and the human contribution to it through the burning of fossil fuels, as real. This view was reinforced in a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council to President Bush.i Climate simulations reported last year, for example, compared two sets of data: natural contributions to global warming, such as volcanic activity and variations in solar radiation alone, versus natural contributions plus those from human activities.
|
From page 188... ...
Recent data indicate that this warming-cooling cycle occurs poles apart: When it grows colder in the Arctic, the southern polar region warms and vice versa. Work correlating rises and falls in Earth's temperature with ocean circulation patterns may further explain the intricate interconnection that shifts the climate on scales of hundreds and thousands of years.
|
From page 189... ...
Biotechnology will play an increasingly important role in developing human drugs, but public resistance in places to genetically modified plants may slow its role in agriculture.
|
From page 190... ...
This effort will see scientists reporting important data gleaned from the genome, such as the role of specific genes, the identification of genes that are linked to diseases, and a better understanding of the timing of gene expression. These efforts will require new or improved assay systems, automated processing equipment, computer software, and advances in computational biology.
|
From page 191... ...
One can expect the brain to yield far more of its secrets in the coming decade with the introduction of new probes, new imaging technologies, and improved bioinformatics techniques that integrate findings not only from neuroscience but from other research disciplines as well. Nerve Death Consider, as an example, neurodegeneration, which is a key element in ailments such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and Huntington's diseases, multiple sclerosis, glaucoma, and Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and its variant, commonly called mad cow disease.
|
From page 192... ...
Another target of opportunity is stem cells, partially developed cells that transform into the various cells of the body. Stem cells taken from embryos and fetuses and transplanted into patients once appeared to be the only stem-cell approach capable of replacing dead neurons.
|
From page 193... ...
Microarrays DNA microarrays will prove an even more essential element in drug development than it currently is as researchers exploit the sequencing of the human genome. These arrays contain thousands of separate DNA sequences on a plate roughly the size of a business card.
|
From page 194... ...
Among the genetically modified plants currently in fields are insect-resistant corn and herbicide-resistant soybeans, corn, and canola. The potential benefits of genetically modified crops include fewer environmental problems from pesticides and herbicides, increased yields, enhanced nutrition, drought resistance, and even the production of the building blocks of polymers and the remediation of polluted soils, sediments, and aquifers.
|
From page 195... ...
As in the human genome, the complete plant genome enables researchers to compare its DNA sequence with DNA sequences from other plants to identify key genes in cash crops. Plant researchers have set a goal of understanding the function of all plant genes by the end of the decade, which would greatly enhance biotechnologists' ability to generate new genetically altered forms.
|
From page 196... ...
A greater understanding of enzymes has exposed the complexity confronting attempts to develop enzyme mimics as well as totally new ones. Questions remain, however, about protein structure and enzymatic mechanisms and how enzymes work in unison within cells.
|
From page 197... ...
Certainly science at the micro- and nanoscale will play important roles in maintaining the economic competitiveness of the United States in computer chips and storage media, telecommunications, optical devices, display technology, biotechnology, biomedical science, and drug development. At the current time, industry funds more than half of the research most likely to have an economic impact during the coming decade.
|
From page 198... ...
198 APPENDIX H of this report. Although precise predictions cannot be made as to which specific efforts will yield unusually significant results over the next 5 to 10 years, the breadth of the technologies likely to yield extraordinary advances can be identified.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.