A Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study (2002) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B Interim Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study
Appendix B Interim Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study
Pages 61-104
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Appendix B Interim Review of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study 61
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This report and the committee were supported by a grant from the United States Army Corps of Engineers. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.
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APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT National Acaclemy of Sciences National Acaclemy of Engineering Institute of Meclicine National Research Council 65 The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters.
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66 APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT The work of this committee was overseen by the Ocean Studies Board and the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council. COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY SCOTT NIXON (Chair)
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APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT 67 Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC' s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge.
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The work of this committee was overseen by the Ocean Studies Board and the Water Science and Technology Board of the National Research Council. COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE FLORIDA KEYS CARRYING CAPACITY STUDY SCOTT NIXON (Chair)
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APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT SUMMARY Contents INTRODUCTION Purpose of this Report, 72 Keys Study Philosophy, Terminology, and Objectives, 73 2 PROJECT STRUCTURE AND MANAGEMENT 3 DEVELOPMENT OF THE ASSESSMENT TOOL General Comments, 78 Specification of Outputs, 78 Creating a Functional Definition of Carrying Capacity Thresholds, 79 4 TECHNICAL CONTENT OF THE ASSESSMENT TOOL Cross-Cutting Issues, 81 Socio-economic/Land Use/Human Infrastructure Module, 83 Water and Wastewater Module, 86 Terrestrial Ecosystems and Species Module, 90 Marine Ecosystems and Species Module, 92 5 APPLICATIONS OF THE ASSESSMENT TOOL Basic Requirements, 94 Additional Opportunities, 95 Scenario Development, 95 69 71 72 76 78 81 94
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From page 71... ...
for assessing the broad impacts of alternative future development scenarios on important biological, environmental, social, and economic factors. To ensure that the final product of the Keys Study is useful and scientifically credible, the report provides several suggestions for CCAM designers at this time: Place a greater emphasis on definition of concepts and agreement on desired outcomes Ensure a higher level of coordination between the different modules that make up the CCAM Make better use of the expert advisors who have been involved in the process and could offer valuable ongoing feedback Set clear priorities, overall and within each module, to ensure that the most important elements are addressed first.
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. designed to determine the ability of the Florida Keys ecosystem, and the various segments thereof, to withstand all impacts of additional land development activities." That ruling led to the initiation of the Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study and its companion Carrying Capacity Analysis Model, which are sponsored by the U.S.
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In all cases the comments contained in this report reflect a consensus of this committee, based on intensive discussions throughout the workshop and the following day and in subsequent correspondence. KEYS STUDY PHILOSOPHY, TERMINOLOGY, AND OBJECTIVES Before addressing the specifics of project management and the technical content of the CCAM, it is worth examining the Keys Study's broader philosophy
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Such an approach will be most useful to the Florida Department of Community Affairs and other planning entities that have been directed by Florida Executive Order 96-108 to "adhere to and implement the findings of a carrying capacity analysis as it relates to and affects the rate of growth and permit allocation in Monroe County." The scope of work also clearly states that "the carrying capacity analysis shall consider aesthetic, socio-economic (including sustainable tourism) , quality of life and community character issues, including the concentration of population, the amount of open space, diversity of habitats, and species richness." These factors are important for residents and local leaders who care deeply about the impacts of alternative land development scenarios on the local economy, community character, and the environment.
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further irreversible and/or adverse impacts to the Florida Keys ecosystem." De-emphasizing the goal of creating a full numerical simulation model will also make it easier to incorporate less tangible, but critical, factors that affect the quality of life. As a first step, the Keys Study should downplay the concept of producing a precise numerical "model" and focus instead on the production of a semi-quantitative "impact assessment tool" that can be used to help illustrate the consequences of various development scenarios on the environmental and social systems in the Keys.
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If it does not already exist, an appropriate task should be created under the Corps contract to cover coordination efforts. The committee was impressed by the caliber and dedication of the large group of experts who attended the initial planning sessions and participated in the January workshop.
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, subject-specific advisory groups who could offer technical input, criticism, and encouragement along the way. Of course, all experts will not agree on every issue; however, the broad discomfort expressed with basic aspects of the CCAM modules during the January workshop was surprising and reflected a lack of ongoing communication between the contractors and the expert advisors.
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Stakeholders, users, and technical experts should be consulted to help define thresholds and outputs that meet the project's dual objectives for comprehensive planning and environmental impact assessment. SPECIFICATION OF OUTPUTS It is clear that the CCAM development team recognizes the importance of creating an assessment tool that addresses the diverse concerns of many stakeholders.
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A limited set of appropriate outputs should be selected as needed for the likely applications of the assessment tool, including periodic reviews of comprehensive plans, proposed changes in land development regulations, assessments of specific large-scale changes in land use, permitting, enforcement, and adaptive management (see Section 5~. Evaluation criteria should then be defined for the variables of greatest concern.
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This approach will also produce an insensitive assessment tool, offering users little information about the relative impacts of alternative land development scenarios. This committee suggests consideration of an alternative approach to designing the CCAM, in which users and experts agree on thresholds for specific evaluation criteria (similar to the process suggested in NRC, 1995~.
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Each module should, before proceeding any further, have clear priorities for what processes and subsystems will be included and at what level of detail. These should be driven by the desired outputs from the entire assessment tool.
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Time- and space-averaged quantities will not always reveal critical information. For example, the nearly instantaneous effect of a heavy rainfall event on water quality and public bathing in the halo zone may be a significant output.
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1. It is the interface through which alternative plan amendments, land development regulations, and other scenarios are input into the assessment tool.
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It is also important to account for land development regulations that govern the quantity and quality of stormwater generated, such as limits on total impervious surface or design and performance standards for stormwater detention, retention, or treatment. The socio-economics, land use, and human infrastructure module must be able to link population growth estimates (both in number, type, and location)
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Tourism experts should be enlisted to assist in estimating the effects of alternative land development scenarios on the number and type of
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One essential Keys Study goal is to assess the impacts of alternative land development scenarios on the local economy and community. To date, factors other than fiscal impact analysis, land use, and population projections have been largely ignored, although the carrying capacity study was charged with considering socio-economic, quality-of-life, and community character issues.
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The following comments are to a significant degree based as much on what is planned as on what has been accomplished to date. In addition to participating in the January workshop, the committee has drawn some inferences based on verbal evaluations of the water module made by the expert advisors who attended the January workshop.
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It is unclear what final parameters will be generated to evaluate the Florida Keys carrying capacity based on aquatic water quality. The focus area seems to be the halo zone, 50-100 m of salt water adjacent to the islands' beaches (defined at the January workshop as water approximately 1 m deep or less)
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Variability can be assessed by using several sources of stormwater quality data in South Florida and variations over time at individual sites. A realistic range of effluent quality should also be employed for evaluation of wastewater discharges.
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Instead, it provides a very simplified measure of future habitat losses and fragmentation. The processes, database, and methods described at the January workshop will produce an assessment tool that provides a basic illustration of probable degrees of impact from future development.
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The module-design team had previously agreed upon using geographic, spatially explicit mapping of habitat loss and fragmentation as the means for evaluating various development scenarios. To date, the impact analyses have been made by selecting specific habitat patch sizes below which a given species will no longer inhabit that patch.
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These constitute real impacts to the health of the Florida Keys.
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. Finally, the marine module does not currently look at species on the Federal Endangered Species List or the Official Lists of Florida's Endangered Species and Species of Special Concern, such as the manatee, crocodile, mangrove rivulus, and numerous marine turtles.
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To serve its main purpose, the CCAM must be capable of accepting inputs either as an end-of-period land use picture or as a set of regulatory policies designed to achieve such land uses. In other words, it must accommodate spatially explicit build-out scenarios based on future land use plans, zoning regulations, and other land development regulations that govern density and intensity of land use.
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To ensure that actual development on the ground is consistent with amended comprehensive plans or land development regulations, the CCAM should be able to serve two additional functions: evaluation of permit applications and adaptive management. Once the comprehensive plans are amended and supporting regulations developed based on the results of the Keys Study, the permit limitations and conditions implied by those regulations can be incorporated into the assessment tool.
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Although some are described in terms of land use patterns, others depict potential land development regulations designed to manage future development. It is not at all clear how the CCAM will handle such scenarios as input, nor is it clear how land development regulations will be converted into the kinds of spatially explicit inputs that will be needed by the other modules to determine the impacts of alternative scenarios.
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The ultimate creation of a continuing implementation mechanism will depend on future decisions by the Florida Department of Community Affairs, the Army Corps of Engineers, and Monroe County and is clearly beyond the scope of the current contract. Nevertheless, one relatively simple task under this contract should be to provide a blueprint for such implementation while the contractor and subcontractors are still familiar with the inner workings of the CCAM.
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98 APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT 2. A description of the number and kinds of staff required; 3.
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The concept of creating an assessment tool to guide the development and environmental future of the Florida Keys is intriguing; however, the goal established for this study, "to develop a model capable of determining the ability of the Keys ecosystem to withstand all impacts of additional land development activities," contains ambiguities and imprecision that must be addressed. Some expectations for the Keys Study exceed current scientific understanding and modeling capabilities.
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Rather than creating a fully predictive numerical simulation model the study team should aim to create an "impact assessment tool" that can be used to help visualize the consequences of various land development scenarios on the Keys' environmental and social systems. Such a tool could be used in analyzing future development scenarios and could be a powerful aid in helping decision makers understand how the Keys might change under a variety of development scenarios.
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The committee looks forward to continued interactions with the study team and to playing a useful role in evaluating this innovative tool for land use planning and public policy formulation in the Florida Keys.
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2000a. Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Project Strategy Outline.
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APPENDIX B.: INTERIM REPORT 103 Water Environment Federation and American Society of Civil Engineers.
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2000a. Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study Project Strategy Outline.
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