Future Flight A Review of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept -- Special Report 263 (2002) / Chapter Skim
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4 - Analysis of Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept
4 - Analysis of Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept
Pages 78-108
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From page 78... ...
• What are the most important steps that should be taken at the national, state, and local levels in support of SATS deployment? Under the SATS concept, highly advanced small aircraft would be operated as a means of personal transportation in airspace and at airports that are now used only lightly.
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From page 79... ...
The current safety assurance system, though deliberate and slow-paced, has been accom panied by continual improvements in aviation safety over the course of many decades. Because of the overriding importance of safety, the prospect that SATS would emerge quickly and with sufficient user, regulator, and industry confidence appears highly questionable.
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From page 80... ...
The number of small jets produced in any given year is only in the hundreds, and they are highly customized and individually crafted. Under the SATS concept, how ever, high user demand is assumed to prompt large reductions in unit price, primar ily because of increases in the number of aircraft manufactured and distributed.
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From page 81... ...
. Value of new GA aircraft shipments derived from GAMA (1999, p.
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From page 82... ...
These differences have implications not only for the kinds of technological advances needed to make small aircraft more useful and desirable for transportation, but also for the extent to which airport and airway infrastructure can accommodate SATS vehicles. Some of the implications for just two of many possible aircraft types are considered next.3 SATS Jet Aircraft Jet aircraft require longer runways than propeller aircraft with comparable passen ger (or payload)
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From page 83... ...
Of the state's 109 public-use airports, CHA Airports with >100 passengers/day Airports with some airline service GA airports with ILS GA airports with 5,000-foot runway Smallest GA airports Counties within 40 miles of airports with >100 passengers/day ATL AGS CSG SAV ABY JAX TLH Figure 4-2 Geographic distribution of all public-use airports in Georgia and major commercial-service airports in other states near Georgia border.
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From page 84... ...
The intended pattern of use, however, would have important implications for the tech nologies needed to ensure compatibility with other non-SATS air traffic. SATS Propeller Aircraft NASA's SATS Program Plan does not explicitly identify propeller (piston-engine or turboprop)
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From page 85... ...
Propeller aircraft flying at the level of weather present significant challenges in meeting the public expectations of safety (both real and perceived) , ride comfort, reliability, and travel speed.
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From page 86... ...
The emphasis in the SATS concept on providing access to radarless small-city and nonmetropolitan airports results from NASA's recognition of the chal lenge of integrating SATS operations with those of commercial airlines in about 175 urban areas under Class B and C airspace in the United States. This limitation on the scope of SATS is understandable because of the complexity of urban air traffic patterns, but it raises questions about the likelihood of SATS generating much user demand.
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From page 87... ...
If the emphasis in the SATS concept is on serving small cities and nonmetropolitan areas, then significant demand for SATS services is required from leisure travelers, who account for 87 percent of the trips taken in small-city and nonmetropolitan markets. Yet, leisure travelers -- who plan their trips relatively far in advance -- are usually more concerned about the price of travel than the schedule flex ibility permitted by on-demand service of the type that SATS vehicles might provide.
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From page 88... ...
30% 25% 20% 15% 0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 88 10% Percent of Total Person Trips 5% 0% M O O M M Sm th th et et et ro ro ro al er er M l/N To To To To p p p p on et m ro 16 50 50 50 0 et To –M –O –S ro M p m th –S et et 16 m ro al er ro 0– M l/N al O –S To l/N p m on et th m ro on 50 al er m et M l/N To ro p et on et ro m ro 16 0 et To ro p 16 0 Figure 4-3 Intercity person trips involving metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas by all modes, American Travel Survey, 1995.
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From page 89... ...
$100,000 or more $75,000 to $100,000 0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 89 $50,000 to $75,000 $25,000 to $50,000 Household Annual Income of Trip Maker Less than $25,000 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of Trips by Mode Personal or Rental Motor Vehicle Commercial Aircraft Corporate or Personal Aircraft Other Types of Transportation Figure 4-4 Transportation mode shares by household income for intercity person trips of 200 to 1,000 miles, American Travel Survey, 1995.
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From page 90... ...
90 80 70 60 1970 1980 1990 1998 50 Percent 0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 90 40 30 20 10 0 Nonmetropolitan Not Nonmetropolitan Adjacent to Metropolitan All Nonmetropolitan Adjacent to Metropolitan Metropolitan Area Area 73.41 26.59 13.97 12.8 1970 78.12 21.88 11.9 9.98 1980 79.57 20.43 11.32 9.11 1990 79.87 20.13 11.28 8.85 1998 Figure 4-5 Trends in the percentage of U.S. population in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, 1970–1998.
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From page 91... ...
. Because leisure travelers also tend to have longer stays at their destinations, the added travel time by automobile is less important than it is for business travelers, who tend to make trips of shorter duration.
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From page 92... ...
Hence, a small aircraft transportation system that is oriented to 200- to 1,000-mile passenger trips must compete with the automobile at a substantial cost disadvantage. The higher travel speeds of small aircraft suggest that, despite the cost disadvantage, SATS vehicles could compete with automobiles at the middle to the high end of the range of trip distances, especially for time-sensitive travel (e.g., business trips)
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From page 93... ...
At these distances, the challenge facing a SATS air craft is the competition from the commercial airline industry. According to the Air Transport Association, the average ticket cost per passenger-mile for jet airline travel on journeys of 1,200 miles (one-way)
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From page 94... ...
100% 90% Leisure Trips Business Trips 80% All Trips 70% 60% 0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 94 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 200 to 299 300 to 399 400 to 499 500 to 599 600 to 699 700 to 799 800 to 899 900 to 999 Trip Distance (miles) Figure 4-6 Share of intercity person trips made by personal motor vehicle for business and leisure travel, American Travel Survey, 1995.
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From page 95... ...
for business and leisure travel, American Travel Survey, 1995.
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From page 96... ...
with Scheduled Service Counties State Population Income,1997 ($) 0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 96 Airports in Georgia with More Than 100 Passengers per Day Each Way ATL Atlanta 37,600 3,555,000 15 45.6 43,000 SAV Savannah 2,200 460,000 8 5.9 33,700 AGS Augusta 650 357,000 7 4.6 34,400 CSG Columbus 240 336,000 11 4.3 31,500 ABY Albany 120 266,000 10 3.4 29,000 Nearby Airports in Bordering States with More Than 100 Passengers per Day Each Way JAX Jacksonville, FL 6,800 91,000 3 1.2 32,200 TLH Tallahassee, FL 1,200 92,000 3 1.2 26,800 CHA Chattanooga, TN 800 213,000 4 2.7 33,800 Subtotal 49,610 5,370,000 61 69.0 39,390 Rest of state 230 2,418,240 99 31.0 29,650 State total 49,840 7,788,240 160 100.0 36,366 NOTE: O = origin; D = destination.
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From page 97... ...
For instance, the model can be used to estimate how changes in travel time will affect the number of trips on a given mode, holding the values of all other vari ables constant. Much is known about the factors that influence demand for air travel on the basis of observations from the commercial airline, air taxi, and business aviation sectors.
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From page 98... ...
For instance, observations on demand gleaned from the commuter airline, air taxi, and business aviation sectors indicate that a large portion of the public prefers travel by jet aircraft over travel by propeller aircraft, for reasons cited earlier. This information suggests that a small air craft transportation system dominated by propeller aircraft would require major improvements in vehicle ride quality, travel speed, reliability, and safety perfor mance to generate user interest.
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From page 99... ...
SATS and Decongestion An anticipated benefit of the SATS concept is that full-scale deployment will help alleviate congestion and flight delays at commercial airports and in the nation's con trolled airspace by diverting some passenger traffic and flights to smaller GA air ports. The idea is that this system, in addition to inducing new travel, would absorb a substantial portion of air travel that would otherwise have been accommodated by airlines.
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From page 100... ...
As described in Chapter 2, the airspace over the country's largest metropolitan areas, the origin and destination points for most air travelers, is closely controlled. The proximity of reliever airports to major metropolitan areas raises the possibility that SATS activity at relievers will have the unintended effect of changing the mix and increasing the 100
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From page 101... ...
0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 101 Medium-Very Small 0.08% Medium-Small 0.66% Medium-Medium 1.86% Small-Small Large-Very Small 0.07% 0.31% Small-Very Small Large-Small 0.04% 2.86% Large-Medium 25.70% Large-Large 68.43% Total passenger trips per day = 1,150,000 Figure 4-8 Share of daily passenger trips on scheduled airlines by size of origin and destination airports, 1999, second quarter. Note: "Large Large" means that the airports on both ends of the trip (origin and final destination)
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From page 102... ...
Small airport = 500 to 51 outbound domestic passenger trips (O&D) per day -- from Erie, PA; Charlottesville, VA; and Fayetteville, AR, to Clarksburg, WV; Dubois, PA; and Brainerd, MN.
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From page 103... ...
and can be produced and operated at low cost, commuter airlines could use them to provide more service to small airports, including some that are not served today. Commuter airlines serve mostly business travelers, who place a high value on airport convenience and frequent flights.
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From page 104... ...
SATS could make air taxi service more economical for more travelers where it is in demand today; whether SATS would generate any significant demand outside the large business markets is unclear. As discussed above, small communities have relatively few business travelers, and leisure travelers are highly sensitive to the price of travel, especially for short or medium-distance trips that can be accomplished with an automobile.
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From page 105... ...
Highway travel in general is considered less safe than air travel.9 To the extent that SATS users would otherwise have driven automobiles on their intercity trips, trans portation safety might be expected to improve for these travelers. However, for rea sons discussed earlier, SATS appears to offer limited potential for traffic diversion from the automobile for short- to medium-range trips, largely because of the auto mobile's flexibility and low out-of-pocket costs.
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From page 106... ...
• Growth in demand for SATS aircraft will prompt, and be propelled by, large reductions in the cost of producing advanced, high-performance small aircraft, pri marily as a result of improvements in aircraft manufacturing and certification processes and scale economies not previously exhibited in the GA industry. • Large numbers of travelers will accept propeller aircraft, including piston engine airplanes, as a mode of intercity transportation, and these aircraft can be made much more comfortable to fly in, more reliable, faster, safer, and more affordable.
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From page 107... ...
The on demand, nonstop, short-range service envisioned in the SATS concept would be a niche service, unlikely to be competitive with network carriers, which are them selves likely to adopt many of the advanced technologies to enhance their own ser vice offerings. The prospect of diverting passengers from larger commercial airliners to small aircraft operated by private pilots and to airports with limited safety services should be examined in light of long-standing goals to enhance transportation safety.
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From page 108... ...
0552-05 Ch04 5/2/02 2:32 PM Page 108 Future Flight: A Review of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept Census Bureau.
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