Human Interactions with the Carbon Cycle Summary of a Workshop (2002) / Chapter Skim
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Workshop Presentations and Discussions
Workshop Presentations and Discussions
Pages 10-33
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From page 10... ...
Human dimensions research is not currently part of the plan because "we haven't presented a compelling agenda." He noted, however, that recent research shows that human activity has a much greater influence on the processes central to the CCSP than previously believed. He reported that the CCSP has already led to the creation of carbon cycle initiatives in several agencies and to an effort to develop a North 10
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From page 11... ...
The terrestrial carbon sink is believed to result from some combination of the following: (1) increased net primary productivity due to carbon and nitrogen fertilization from human activity and longer growing seasons associated with global warming; (2)
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From page 12... ...
International Carbon Cycle Research Activities Speaker: Eugene Rosa, Washington State University Eugene Rosa referred to several international efforts, including some university-based efforts in Europe and the Global Carbon Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) , the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP)
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From page 14... ...
Figure 4b represents the carbon cycle including human interactions, which both alter the carbon cycle and respond to changes in it. Source: Hibbard et al.
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From page 15... ...
program is now trying to engage the human dimensions community. Thomas Dietz cited the Carbon Cycle Working Group's request for this workshop as supporting evidence.
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From page 16... ...
Field noted that the research tools in the natural sciences are now providing finer spatial resolution, which might make such collaboration easier. Susan Stonich argued that the study of historical data needs to include people who know about history.
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From page 17... ...
in which the first two righthand terms represent economic activity, the third is energy intensity, and the last is carbon intensity. At a deeper level, economic activity is driven by capital formation and technology; energy intensity is affected by both energy production technology and energy use technology, as well as by distribution of income, which influences demand for energy services; carbon intensity is shaped by the relative prices of different fuel cycles given available technologies.
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From page 18... ...
Decarbonization trends are continuing, but public opposition to nuclear and hydroelectric power raises questions about whether so-called autonomous declines in the carbon share of energy will continue indefinitely. He concluded that the keys to whether the IPCC scenarios materialize are the development and penetration of technology and the future of policies that affect energy prices.
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From page 19... ...
Commentary Speaker: Thomas f WilIDanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Thomas Wilbanks argued that the future of fossil fuel use will reflect demand for energy services such as travel, heating and cooling buildings, and materials processing (reflecting a combination of need and ability to pay) and technological alternatives to fossil fuels (a function of ingenuity)
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From page 20... ...
Wilbanks noted that the search for sequestration technologies is prompted by the fact that current projections suggest unacceptable levels of carbon emissions. Participants raised a variety of issues that might need investigation: the potential for relatively rapid lifestyle changes, such as the rapid declines in birth rates now occurring even in some of the poorest countries and the changes that often occur in times of crisis the effect of change in social institutions on energy use the claim that in the United States it is more politically feasible to change people's choice sets than to change their preferences or choices directly the counterclaim that policies have changed preferences (the example given was the rapid shift of the U.S.
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From page 21... ...
THE CARBON IMPLICATIONS OF FUTURE LAND COVERI LAND USE TRANSFORMATIONS A Carbon Cyde Modeling Perspective Speaker: Ruth DeFries, University of Maryland Ruth DeFries noted that land use transformations were the main anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon cycle until the 20th century. Tropical deforestation, of such great concern at present, is only a relatively recent
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From page 22... ...
To link human dimensions research on land use to carbon cycle research, DeFries argued that it is important to move from the pattern of changes in the carbon sink to the underlying processes and then to consider the pattern in light of the processes. She noted that social science normally works at smaller scales than the global and that the linkage is probably best accomplished at the regional scale.
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From page 23... ...
The future development of LUCC, Moran said, should be to move measurements farther into the past and to develop structured case comparisons in a few localities involving integrated science. Commentary Speaker: Mark Rosenzweig, University ofPennsylvania Mark Rosenzweig noted that current information about land cover and land cover change is not very good.
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From page 24... ...
Remote sensing data indicate that tree growth has lagged behind official estimates. Forest cover in India has nevertheless increased while population has also grown, because of changes in land management.
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From page 25... ...
They have found that the uncertainties in future emissions are much greater than the uncertainties in the natural science of the carbon cycle; uncertainties about carbon sinks are also important. As an example of the importance of sink uncertainties, Sarmiento showed two simulations with emissions scenarios similar to the IPCC IS92a scenario using fully coupled models covering land, oceans, and atmosphere.
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From page 26... ...
Regarding uncertainty, Pitcher argued that we don't know what we don't know well enough to do anything like optimization. For example, the temperature outcome of human activity depends on both the size of the carbon sink and the climate sensitivity to carbon concentrations, both of which are unknown.
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From page 27... ...
He asked whether the age structures implied by the scenarios have ever existed and doubted that they could possibly last as long as projected. Pitcher noted that the models lack economic and demographic feedbacks.
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From page 28... ...
They are therefore hard to defend and fund, and social scientists are uneasy about them, for both good and bad reasons. Parson argued that with theory and evidence, models can be specified, but he noted that many social scientists
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From page 29... ...
4. Improve data on the human dimensions.
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From page 30... ...
Make future emissions scenarios meaningful by incorporating an appropriate set of economic and institutional drivers and the research that can improve understanding of these relationships. Field concluded by noting that oceanography and astronomy, which both need expensive assets to do their research, have gained support for those assets by developing consensus research agendas for a big question.
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From page 31... ...
as well as biogeophysical drivers. Two more specific suggestions involved studying the history of land use/land cover change in particular regions with attention to periods of significant change.
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From page 32... ...
Another emphasized the need to improve the capability of integrated assessment analysis to incorporate multi-scale interactions. Finally, one participant suggested using case studies to build casespecific land-use/land cover scenarios and using those scenarios to bound assumptions about land change in global models and to test the sensitivity of model outputs to assumptions about land change.
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From page 33... ...
Pitcher noted that none of the existing environmental control models include the cost of management choices and suggested that consistent pricing elements need to be incorporated into models. Schneider noted institutional constraints and opportunities in doing this kind of work and raised a few substantive issues.
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