The Relative Risks of School Travel A National Perspective and Guidance for Local Community Risk Assessment -- Special Report 269 (2002) / Chapter Skim
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3 Analysis of Risk Measures
3 Analysis of Risk Measures
Pages 83-117
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From page 83... ...
In all cases, data were selected on the basis of normal school travel hours as defined in Chapter 1. Ideally, the committee would have liked to identify only those trips whose purpose was transporting children to and from school; however, because different databases use different criteria for recording trip purpose, it was not possible to determine accurately which trips were to or from school per se.
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From page 84... ...
DATA CATEGORIES In addition to the date and time definitions noted earlier that were used to capture events during normal school travel hours, data from the GES and FARS databases were sorted into 15 school travel categories. These categories, listed in Table 3-1, capture not only the travel mode involved in an accident, but also information about the driver's age.
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From page 85... ...
crash in Injuries schoola vehicle vehicles vehicles operated operated defined in busrelated busrelated vehicle busrelated as and busrelated buses Description vehicles motora schoola in school motora hours passenger passenger schoola motorcycle other motorcycle motorcycle passenger in in in (not not in schoola in buses travel in on on bus (not in not passenger other Fatalities (operator) , school school pedestrian passenger driver, passenger pedestrian pedestrian, bicyclist bicyclist bicyclist driver, passenger passenger driver passenger normal Databases for Student Child Child Child Teen Child Child Child Child Child Child Teen Child Child Teen Child are GES 3-1 shown and Data TABLE FARS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Category 10 11 12 13 14 15 Total Note:
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From page 86... ...
Similarly, categories 9 and 10 were combined into a "bicycling" category. In contrast with the pedestrian case, however, the committee reasoned that bicyclists injured or killed by school buses were not using the bus to get to and from school; that is, their primary mode was bicycling.
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From page 87... ...
. Figure 3-1 shows how the use of the various school travel modes differs by age group.
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From page 88... ...
10% 0% 5 to 10 11 to 13 14 to 15 16 to 18 yrs old yrs old yrs old yrs old (b) FIGURE 3-1 Percentage of trips during normal school travel hours: (a)
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From page 89... ...
make up 45 percent of the trips and 51 percent of the miles logged by students during normal school travel hours. Next are school buses with approximately 25 percent of trips and miles, and then passenger vehicles with teen drivers (younger than 19 years of age)
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From page 90... ...
driver) normal for (teen (adult Summary are 3-3 vehicle vehicle shown bus bus Data TABLE School Other Passenger Passenger Bicycling Walking Total Note:
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From page 91... ...
On the basis of the NPTS data, the average trip length for other buses is around 8 miles. To put these values in perspective, Figure 3-3 shows a comparison of miles per trip for the four age groups for normal school travel hours and all other times of the year.
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From page 92... ...
Driver) Walking Bicycle Other PV FIGURE 3-4 Student fatality rates per 100 million trips by mode during normal travel hours with 90 percent confidence intervals (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 93... ...
Walking Bicycle Other PV FIGURE 3-6 Student fatality rates per 100 million student-miles by mode during normal travel hours with 90 percent confidence intervals (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 94... ...
Walking Bicycle Other PV FIGURE 3-7 Student injury rates per 100 million student-miles by mode during normal travel hours with 90 percent confidence intervals (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 95... ...
787 2,549 4,618 Ages 1113 School bus 9 20 30 Other bus 7 38 69 Passenger vehicle (adult driver) 48 76 104 Walking 370 759 1,198 Bicycling 1,096 2,267 3,624 Passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 96... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other Other Other School School School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV PV PV PV PV 5 to 10 yrs old 11 to 13 yrs old 14 to 15 yrs old 16 to 18 yrs old FIGURE 3-8 Injuries per 100 million student-miles shown by age group and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 97... ...
11.26 15.22 20.99 Ages 1113 School bus 0.04 0.04 0.04 Other bus 0.03 0.03 0.03 Passenger vehicle (adult driver) 0.21 0.21 0.22 Walking 6.60 8.30 10.58 Bicycling 10.03 12.95 16.97 Passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 98... ...
1,599 2,131 2,678 Note: Data shown are for normal school travel hours as defined in Chapter 1. 100 million student-miles)
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From page 99... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other Other Other School School School School (Adult (Teen (Teen (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV(Adult PV PV PV PV PV 5 to 10 yrs old 11 to 13 yrs old 14 to 15 yrs old 16 to 18 yrs old FIGURE 3-10 Injuries per 100 million student trips shown by age group and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 100... ...
15.61 27.61 51.93 Ages 1113 School bus 0.18 0.19 0.21 Other bus 0.18 0.24 0.31 Passenger vehicle (adult driver) 1.09 1.17 1.27 Walking 3.60 4.02 4.51 Bicycling 9.21 11.74 15.20 Passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 101... ...
2,079 2,696 3,375 Note: Data shown are for normal school travel hours as defined in Chapter 1. TABLE 3-9 Injuries per 100 Million Student Trips: Confidence Bounds on Average Estimates by Time of Day and Transportation Mode Time of Day and Transportation Mode 5th Mean 95th 68:59 a.m.
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From page 102... ...
10.20 11.48 12.98 Note: Data shown are for normal school travel hours as defined in Chapter 1. TABLE 3-11 Fatalities per 100 Million Student Trips: Confidence Bounds on Average Estimates by Time of Day and Transportation Mode Time of Day and Transportation Mode 5th Mean 95th 68:59 a.m.
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From page 103... ...
19.61 21.50 23.64 Note: Data shown are for normal school travel hours as defined in Chapter 1. TABLE 3-13 Injuries per 100 Million Student-Miles: Confidence Bounds on Average Estimates by Gender and Transportation Mode Gender and Transportation Mode 5th Mean 95th Male School bus 12 19 27 Other bus 11 28 46 Passenger vehicle (adult driver)
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From page 104... ...
TABLE 3-15 Fatalities per 100 Million Student-Miles: Confidence Bounds on Average Estimates by Gender and Transportation Mode Gender and Transportation Mode 5th Mean 95th Male School bus 0.07 0.07 0.07 Other bus 0.04 0.04 0.05 Passenger vehicle (adult driver) 0.30 0.30 0.30 Walking 9.39 10.79 12.46 Bicycling 12.74 16.13 20.71 Passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 105... ...
TABLE 3-17 Fatalities per 100 Million Student-Miles: Confidence Bounds on Average Estimates by Geographic Region and Transportation Mode Geographic Region and Transportation Mode 5th Mean 95th Urban School bus 0.09 0.09 0.09 Other bus 0.00 0.00 0.00 Passenger vehicle (adult driver) 0.16 0.17 0.17 Walking 6.19 7.15 8.32 Bicycling 8.58 10.58 13.20 Passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 106... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV Male Female FIGURE 3-12 Injuries per 100 million student trips shown by gender and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 107... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV Male Female FIGURE 3-14 Fatalities per 100 million student trips shown by gender and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 108... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV Urban Rural FIGURE 3-16 Fatalities per 100 million student trips shown by geographic region and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 109... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV Male Female FIGURE 3-19 Fatalities per 100 million student-miles shown by gender and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 110... ...
Walking Bicycling Walking Bicycling Other Other School School (Adult (Teen (Adult (Teen PV PV PV PV Urban Rural FIGURE 3-21 Fatalities per 100 million student-miles shown by geographic region and travel mode (PV = passenger vehicle)
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From page 111... ...
Walking Bicycling Other Vehicle Vehicle School Passenger Passenger (Adult (Teen FIGURE 3-22 Coefficient of variation for fatalities per 100 million student trips shown by travel mode. 60% 5 to 10 yrs old 11 to 13 yrs old 50% 14 to 15 yrs old 16 to 18 yrs old 40% Variation of 30% 20% Coefficient 10% 0% School Bus Other Bus Walking Passenger Bicycling Passenger Vehicle Vehicle (Adult Driver)
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From page 112... ...
NS Figure 3-10, injuries per 100 million student trips School bus and other bus NS NS School bus and walking NS Other bus and walking Walking and passenger vehicle (adult driver) NS Bicycling and passenger vehicle (teen driver)
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From page 113... ...
On a per-mile basis, the risks are approximately 20 percent higher during nonschool travel hours, but vary slightly with the age groups. While trips by school bus make up 25 percent of the trips during normal school travel hours, the risk per school bus trip is only 7.5 percent that of all the other modes combined (0.34 fatalities per 100 million trips versus 4.78 fatalities per 100 million trips)
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From page 114... ...
Results for specific school districts may vary significantly in accordance with local conditions. How these results can be used to inform policy decisions is demonstrated in Chapter 5.
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From page 115... ...
If the above school bus ridership data are accepted as being accurate (something the committee did not believe appropriate for data quality reasons) , the percentage of children taking school buses can be calculated (see Annex 3-1 Figure 2)
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From page 116... ...
30 20 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 ANNEX 3-1 FIGURE 1 Trend data. 40% 39% 38% 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ANNEX 3-1 FIGURE 2 Percent of school children riding school buses.
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From page 117... ...
) 800 700 younger d an 600 ldo 500 years 400 (16 300 year 200 per sh 100 eat D 0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 ANNEX 3-1 FIGURE 4 Fatality rate for bicyclists age 16 or younger over time.
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