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10. Complex and Interdependent Systems
Pages 287-312

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From page 287...
... For example, DOD, NASA, and various intelligence agencies have directed systems techniques to highly complex, but ultimately successful, military and aerospace applications dating all the way back to the Apollo and Strategic Submarine programs and continuing to this day. Additionally, the Environmental Protection Agency has developed a methodology for risk analysis and prioritization of environmental threats, and private-sector analysts in the financial services (www.riskmetrics.com)
From page 288...
... Aspects of energy distribution, power grids, air traffic control, and military support infrastructures have been analyzed and modeled to varying degrees of fidelity. In the near term, these models must be extended and expanded to provide better representation of specific critical infrastructures, and the models must be tested and evaluated against real-world data.
From page 290...
... , are also essential to the risk analysis. Four major risk classes to homeland security can be identified, as shown in Figure 10.1: 1.
From page 291...
... Further, state and local governments lack the resources and specialized knowledge to combat terrorism. Thus, government at all levels lacks a framework for bringing responsibility, accountability, and resources together to deliver homeland security against terrorism.
From page 292...
... Model building provides a good way to span the organizational boundaries often associated with complex decisions. And because technology currently exists for monitoring, cluster analysis, and portrayal of the nature of e-mails and attachments flowing in large organizations, this idea is by no means far-fetched.
From page 293...
... Moreover, a federal architect and national systems integrator across all departments and all levels of government is needed to develop and validate operating models in order to provide the prioritized decision making, planning, and training needs of governmental counterterrorism programs. Recommendation 10.1: In order to define critical infrastructure vulnerabilities and enable better decision making within the federal government on priorities related to counterterrorism, the OHS should utilize a dedicated core of systems engineering and research expertise to conduct systems analyses, systems engineering, risk modeling and assessment, and related model development.
From page 294...
... COUNTERTERRORISM THREAT MODELING3 The analysis of terrorist threats is a major input, as shown in Figure 10.1, to the risk analyses that must be performed to establish homeland security priorities. Currently, a large volume of pertinent information is collected by the U.S.
From page 295...
... Further, the probabilities should change over time as our experience grows and our knowledge improves. The Threat System to Be Weakened In parallel with strengthening defenses, we can reduce the likelihood of various threats by destroying terrorist organizations where possible and, in some cases, by deterring elements of the terrorist organizations' larger systems.
From page 296...
... A System Model for Counterterrorism Defense Figure 10.3 gives highlights of a prototype model that was recently built for analyzing counterterrorism defense in such a dynamic system. Although it is not a finished product, it illustrates a global approach that could be extended and used in real time to support protection decisions.
From page 298...
... Such diagrams thus include four types of variables: state variables describing the nominal states of key elements of the system and the uncertainties about those states (oval nodes) ; decision variables describing the spectrum of alternatives considered by terrorist or U.S.
From page 299...
... Developing Potential Threat Profiles Clearly, to develop an effective decision-making tool would require substantial effort by many individuals working at a variety of operational agencies. But methodologies suggested here and in the references provide a potential path for doing so that is, for developing the necessary framework for modeling and analyzing terrorist threats and their relative risks to the United States.
From page 300...
... Thus modeling U.S. critical infrastructure vulnerabilities particularly for such objectives as identifying patterns of anomalous behavior, finding weak points in the infrastructure, training personnel, and helping to maintain continuity of operations following terrorist attack will be of great national importance.
From page 302...
... , and, as shown by Project Eligible Receiver, computers controlling electric power grids are accessible, and subject to manipulation, by anyone with hacker knowledge (Gertz, 1998; Myers, 1998~. Similar vulnerabilities apply to telecommunications the public telephone and Internet systems, for instance, and the dependence of one on the other (the Internet uses leased telephone lines for much of its physical network)
From page 303...
... Advanced computational techniques, identification of interdependencies among infrastructure elements, and development of software and data-analysis capabilities that make use of the latest developments in computer hardware are also required. The ability to test models against real-world data to determine model fidelity for particular infrastructures and the interdependencies between different infrastructures is critical.
From page 304...
... Recommendation 10.3: A governmentwide effort should be made to leverage existing modeling and analysis capabilities and, where appropriate, to develop new capabilities to model critical infrastructures and related interdependencies. In so doing, the federal government should collaborate with commercial organizations that have system models relevant to the homeland security missions notably in the areas of threat assessment and critical infrastructure in order to identify candidates for near-term model-integrahon mlhatlves.
From page 305...
... MODELING CHALLENGES FOR COUNTERTERRORISM The preceding sections have emphasized the critical importance of models in the systems approach to counterterrorism, and they have also noted some of the deficiencies of current modeling technologies. This section describes two methods of model development and operation that appear to offer significant potential for analyzing the complexities of counterterrorism applications.
From page 306...
... of systems. They take a top-down approach to system analysis by compressing the many variables of a large, complicated system of systems into a relatively small number of overall attributes, called aggregate state variables.
From page 307...
... Repeatedly, in case and experimental situations alike, human actors manage complex systems at suboptimal levels, even when perfect information concerning the system and its dynamic complexity is available to them through system simulations and analyses. Similarly, individual government officials could well make ineffective or even counterproductive choices on antiterrorism actions.
From page 308...
... Research would also support the development of methodologies to improve understanding of the interconnectedness and interdependencies among critical infrastructures and to better understand, model, assess, and manage the risks to homeland security from physical, economic, social, and psychological perspectives. Finally, the development and use of simulators and learning environments will be key supports for the analysis of counterterrorism policy.
From page 309...
... System-of-systems perspectives for homeland security; Agent-based and system dynamics modeling; Analysis of risk assessment and management from multiple perspectives, including the risk of potentially extreme and catastrophic events; · Modeling of interdependencies among critical infrastructures; and Development of simulators and learning environments. Research projects should involve many domains of expertise; a single disciplinary perspective should not dominate the agenda.
From page 310...
... Recommendation 10.6: Government agencies that fund university research should enhance their support of research projects that feature systems analysis and systems engineering, in part to help produce new integrative departments and future leaders who think across the traditional academic boundaries and who can address the complex scientific and technological issues discussed above. REFERENCES Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction (Gilmore Commission)
From page 311...
... 2002. "Probabilistic Modeling of Terrorist Threats: A Systems Analysis Approach to Setting Priorities Among Countermeasures," submitted for publication in Military Operations Research; working paper of the Department of Management and Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.
From page 312...
... 2001a. Combating Terrorism: A Compendium of Recent Counter Terrorism Recommendations from Authoritative Commissions and Subject Matter Experts, Institute for Security Technology Studies at Dartmouth College, Hanover, N.H., September 16.


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