The Polygraph and Lie Detection (2003) / Chapter Skim
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From page 381... ...
Index A Accuracy measurement, 61 association measures, 62-63 n.7 Chi-square coefficient, 63 n.7 Cohen's kappa, 63 n.7 comparison group, 35 consistent approach to, 37-51 countermeasures and, 31, 36, 66, 78 and decision threshold, 40, 42-49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.8, 95, 104-105 n.l6, 130, 148, 354-357 diagnostic models, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48,49, 61,62 n.7,63n.11, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149 equivariance binormal model, 342344 false negative probability, 39 false positive index, 35, 36, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 334, 354-357 false positive probability, 39, 89 funding source for research and, 119-120 limitations of data, 66, 68-69, 109, 115 log-odds ratio, 62-63 n.7 381 negative predictive value, 39 overestimation, 214 Pearson's r, 152 n.1 percentage correct index, 31, 43, 46, 49-50, 63 n.8, 129-130, 148 phi coefficient, 63 n.7 positive predictive value, 38, 39, 5860, 184 purpose of polygraph test and, 2223, 24, 31, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60, 101 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve estimation, 342344, 368 sensitivity and specificity, 38, 39, 43, 45, 48, 78, 85, 91, 94, 122-123, 211 nn.4&5, 318-319, 367-368, 369 theoretical basis, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 102, 109, 127-128, 213, 343-344 trapezoidal estimate, 344, 350 used in this study, 43-44, 50-51, 342-344 and validity, 30-33, 66 Yule's Q
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From page 382... ...
See Stimulation test Air Force Office of Special Investigations, 263 Airport security screening analogy, 33 Al Qaeda terrorist network, 193, 211 n.6 Alcohol intoxication, 139 Alternative techniques and technologies autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155157, 174 brain function measurement, 80, 104 n.9, 154-155, 157-162, 174175 classes of techniques, 154-155 demeanor, 52, 155, 163-170, 175176, 201 direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201 need for evaluation, 7-8, 176, 217 research approach, 99, 227-228 theoretical limitations, 80, 99, 170, 175, 217 American Association of Police Polygraphists, 278 American Polygraph Association, 278 Anthrax terrorism, 193 Anxiety, 135, 142, 158 Arousal theory, 74, 76, 77, 82, 103 n.7, 127, 156, 287. See also Psychophysiological responses Autonomic indicators, 80, 154, 155157, 174 Assessment of validity.
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From page 383... ...
See also Hamre Commission recommendations Comparison question technique. See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage accuracy, 124-125, 127, 128, 135, 346, 351 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 countermeasures, 140, 141, 143 dataset for quantitative assessment, 341 directed-lie, 71, 79, 256, 328 inferences from, 104 n.9 legal issues, 205 meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1 orienting theory and, 75, 76-77 in pretest interview, 16, 62 n.2, 77, 261 probable-lie, 14, 71, 255, 256, 328 psychophysiological responses, 1415,67,70-71,72,74,76-77,83,93 Reid (modified general questions)
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From page 384... ...
384 validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 67, 69, 79, 89, 253 zone comparison test, 255-256, 304, 311, 316, 318 Computer voice stress analyzer, 167168 Computerized linguistic analysis, 165 Computerized scoring systems, 64 n.l2, 256 accuracy, 209, 217, 298, 299-300, 318-320, 330 algorithm development, 302-318 artifact detection and removal, 306, 319 AXCON, 316-317 Bayesian approach, 315, 319, 366 Chart Analysis, 316-317 comparative evaluation of algorithms, 299, 316-318, 320 Computerized Polygraph System, 298, 299, 302-307, 309-312, 313314, 316-320 cost-benefit tradeoffs, 195-197 data-mining technique, 299, 301, 312 data used, 300, 302, 303-305, 319, 372 disclosure for assessment, 20 discriminant analysis, 97, 299, 300, 301, 302-303, 309, 310, 313, 314315, 319, 367 evaluation of demeanor effects with, 52 feature evaluation and selection, 311-314 feature extraction, 307-310, 316, 319 Identifi, 316-317 logistic regression, 299, 300, 301, 302, 303, 309, 312, 313-314, 315, 319, 367 neural network models, 303, 309, 313, 367, 370 PolyScore algorithms, 196, 298, 299, 302-311, 312-320 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 relevance for TES, 303, 318-319, 320 signal processing, 305-307 INDEX signal transformation, 306-307, 312, 319 standardization, 307, 310-311 statistical analysis, 217, 311 statistical models for classification and prediction, 298-299, 300-302, 313-316 of thermal imaging, 157 validation strategies, 196, 201, 209, 312-313, 316-317 Concealed information technique, 257 accuracy, 124-125, 127-128, 134-135, 136, 138, 139, 346 brain function analysis, 159-160, 161-162, 175 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 countermeasures, 143 expectation bias and, 90 inferences from, 104 n.9 legal issues, 103 n.l, 204-205 meta-analyses of laboratory studies, 152 n.1 peak-of-tension test, 168, 258, 341 principle, 15, 71 quantitative assessment of studies, 136, 341 social interaction effects, 104 n.l5, 105 n.l7 theoretical basis, 69, 70, 75-76, 93, 103 n.5, 127-128 uses, 15, 24, 204-205 validity relative to other tests, 27 n.3, 28 n.5, 69, 79 Conditional probabilities, 104 n.ll Conditioned response theory, 73, 75 Conflict theory, 72-73, 77 Construct validity, 32-33, 52, 66-67, 96, 103 n.3, 117 Control questions, 14-15, 27 n.3, 253, 254-257, 261, 266 Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation computerized scoring, 195-197 decision making on policies, 61, 95, 190-191, 208-209, 358-363 with friendly thresholds, 42, 44, 4546, 186-187, 188, 208
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From page 385... ...
Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 67, 98, 103 n.l, 202, 206, 207, 210, 211 n.9, 294 Deception detection. See also Alternative techniques and technologies; Demeanor decision criteria for judging, 1-2, 157 early case studies, 295-296 evaluation of methods for, 221-222 examinee's expectation of, 20, 22, 54, 55, 59, 79-80, 90-91 overall assessment, 170 psychophysiological, 52 research recommendations, 225226, 228-229 sensitivity and specificity of indicators, 38, 39 specific issue, 150 training observers, 166 Decision analysis of polygraph security screening, 358-363 Decision theory, 46 Decision thresholds.
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From page 386... ...
See Medical diagnostic models Diazepam (Valium) , 138, 142 Dichotomization theory, 75, 77 Direct investigation, 155, 170-173, 176, 201 Directed-lie tests, 255, 256 DISC theory, 294 DNA profiling, 85, 104 n.l2, 203-204, 207 Drug Enforcement Administration, 263 Drug screening, 53-54, 171, 264 Drugs affecting detection of deception, 86, 138-139, 142, 150 INDEX E Electrodermal activity, 288, 303-304, 328 accuracy, 162 countermeasures, 143 differential responses to stimuli, 153 n.5 drug effects on, 138-139 factor analysis of indices of, 100 functional brain imaging combined with, 158-159 lability, 134-135 research approaches, 110, 116-117 skin conductance responses, 82-83, 110, 134-135, 158-159, 288, 302304, 305, 308, 309, 313, 314, 317, 328 skin resistance measurements, 83, 110, 288, 317, 328 traditional measures in polygraph testing, 81, 155 Electroencephalograms (EEGs)
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From page 387... ...
INDEX Examiners. See Polygraph examiners Executive Order 12958, 268 Expectancy effects, 20, 22-23, 42, 79, 83, 89-91, 104-105 n.l6, 115, 129, 130, 150, 158, 204 Expert scientific testimony, admissibility standards, 12, 67, 98, 103 n.l, 201-203, 206, 207, 293-294, 296 F Facial and body movement, 164 Factor analytic methods, 96 Fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85 False confessions, 28 n.9, 56 False negatives accuracy and, 36, 38, 67, 180-181, 182 base rate of deception and, 180-181 computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317 corrective measures, 33 costs of, 189, 190, 192, 193, 219, 220221 decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180-181, 219 examiner expectancy and, 90 parallel combined testing and, 367368 populations likely to show results as, 31, 76 pretest interview and, 35 probability, 39, 60 serial combination tests and, 369 False positives accuracy and, 35, 36, 61, 62 n.6, 67, 68, 69, 122-123, 180-181, 182, 185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357 base rate of deception and, 180-182, 185, 211 n.2, 354-357 computerized scoring and, 311, 316, 317 corrective measures, 33 costs of, 6, 54, 60, 179, 185-186, 188, 189, 190-191, 192, 193, 218-219, 220 387 decision threshold and, 46, 60, 61, 109, 180, 183-184, 185, 218-219 examiner expectancy and, 90 and false confessions, 56 index, 38, 39, 61, 62 n.6, 122-123, 180-185, 211 n.2, 334, 354-357 parallel combined testing and, 368 physiological conditions that produce, 87, 93 populations likely to show results as, 31, 87 pretest interview and, 35 probability, 39, 60, 89 ROC curve and, 46, 180, 316, 360 serial combination tests and, 369 Federal Bureau of Investigation base rate of deceptive individuals, 184, 187 basis for adverse personnel decisions, 36-37 "failures" of polygraph tests, 62 n.5 polygraph screening test, 219, 263264, 274, 281-282, 284, 293 Webster Commission recommendations, 188-189, 190, 220 Federal Rules of Evidence, 67 Field research accuracy of, 125-126, 148, 350-353 biases in, 304-305 defined, 328 desirable elements, 108-109 experimental, 108, 109-111, 116-117, 120, 316, 328-329 meta-analysis, 333-334 observational, 108-109, 112-116 planned approaches, 116-117 qualitative assessment, 108, 109-120, 304-305, 316, 328-329, 341-342 quantitative assessment, 125-126, 350-353 Fingerprinting, 201, 202, 203 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, 362 Forensic science mainstream science and, 206-208 polygraph testing as, 203-204, 210
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From page 388... ...
, 155, 158-160 174-175 Funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119120, 329, 340-341, 347-351 G Game theory, 359 Gender of examiners, and accuracy, 136-137 Generalizability base rate of deception and, 153 n.4 between examiners, 132 of laboratory studies, 109, 143, 204 of specific-incident testing to security screening, 109 theory, 96 H Habituation, 76 Hamre Commission recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220 Handwriting identification, 201, 202 Hanssen, Robert, 187, 189 I Inferences from polygraph tests countermeasures detection, 22 empirical error sources, 85-91, 92 fallacy of the transposed conditional, 85 legal issues, 204-206 logical issues, 84-85 noncooperation and, 22 in preclearance screening, 23-24, 37 scoring method and, 64 n.l2 subtractive method, 84, 104 n.9, 108, 110 Integrity testing, 172-173, 177 n.2 INDEX Intelligence, defined, 266 Internal consistency, 30 Interpretation of responses. See also Cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation; Polygraph charts; Scoring polygraph tests deception indicated opinion, 84, 266, 276 endogenous error sources, 86-87 no deception indicated opinion, 266-267, 282 no opinion, 49-50, 262, 267, 276 no significant response opinion, 38, 77, 262, 283 significant response opinion, 35, 38, 77, 84, 256-257, 262 theoretical issues, 80, 81, 94 unresolved issues opinion, 268 Wen Ho Lee investigation, 30 Interviews and interrogations, 11, 173 Irrelevant questions, 78, 254, 256 Item response theory, 96 Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 97, 196, 298, 303, 307, 309, 312-313, 318 L Laboratory research, 311, 328, 333, 340-342 accuracy of, 121-125, 148, 150, 344349, 350, 351 cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation, 109 extrapolation to field use, 126-130, 132-133, 143-144 generalizability, 109, 143 qualitative assessment, 108, 109, 120, 328 quantitative assessment, 60, 121125, 148, 305, 344-349, 350, 351 of specific-incident testing, 121-125, 148
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From page 389... ...
See also Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) Marston, William Moulton, 99, 291, 292-296 Medical diagnostic models accuracy measurement, 37-38, 40, 41, 43, 47, 48, 49, 61, 62 n.7, 63 n.ll, 66, 84, 95, 127, 149 base rate of deception and, 48, 50, 149 combining information sources in, 197, 364-372 dimensionality problem, 366, 371 expert systems, 369-372 independent parallel testing, 199, 367-368 independent serial testing, 199-200, 368-369 389 quantitative assessment, 128-130, 149 scoring, 40, 196 statistical classification systems, 199, 365-369 Meprobamate, 138, 142 Meta-analyses deception detection from demeanor, 163-164, 166 of direct investigation techniques, 171, 172-173 file-drawer effect, 118-119 of laboratory studies of polygraph accuracy, 152 n.1 rationale for excluding, 107-108, 333-334 Methylphenidate (Ritalin)
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From page 390... ...
See also Interpretation of responses; Scoring polygraph charts inferences about truthfulness or deception, 22 validity assessment from, 22, 28 n.7, 34 Polygraph examinations, 70-71 admissibility in court, 12, 67, 201203, 293-294 INDEX combining other information sources with, 7-8, 25, 197, 199201, 209-210, 220, 364-372 components, 16-17 defined, 27 n.2, 267 design of questions, 253, 257 and false confessions, 28 n.9 as forensic science, 203-204, 210 "friendly" vs. "unfriendly," 17, 22 future potential, 213 logs, 116 mystique, 18, 20-21, 107, 294-296 opposition to, 12, 58, 291, 292-293 origins and history, 291-296 pastiest interview, 55 pretest interviews, 16, 34, 54, 55, 62 n.2, 71, 130, 253, 256, 257, 260, 261, 282 procedures and standards, 19, 30, 93, 194-195, 277-278 and public confidence in national security, 57 purposes of, 21-24.
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From page 391... ...
See also Expectancy effects; Selection bias "bogus pipeline" technique, 55, 56, 59-60, 110 case-control studies, 113, 114, 115 case series, 113 case studies, 113 classified, 118, 148, 230, 231 391 clinical trials analogy, 111 comparative analyses, 329 contextual issues, 24, 92 cross-sectional surveys, 113 data collection process, 113-114 desirable qualities, 110-111, 112113, 223-224 on deterrence, 53-54 experimental studies, 109-111 field studies, 108, 109-115, 305, 328, 333, 340-342 funding/sponsorship issues, 110, 119-120, 329, 340-341, 347-350 history, 99-100, 291-296 limitations of, 106, 108 mystique of lie detection and, 19, 20, 21, 111 observational studies, 112-115 obstacles to, 110-111 "open science" strategy, 99, 148, 296 organizational emphasis, 229-231 progress in, 213 prospective cohort studies, 112, 114 quality of, 2, 99-100. See also Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing recommendations, 226-231 relationship to other scientific fields, 95-96 retrospective cohort studies, 112113 on scoring polygraph charts, 97-98, 298-321 social context and structure of, 9899 state of, 79-82, 91-100, 102 systematic review of.
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From page 392... ...
See Validity of polygraph examinations value of, 11 Positive predictive value, 38, 39, 58-60 Positron emission tomography (PET) , 155, 157-158 Predictive validity, 31, 58-60 Preemployment/preclearance screening, 11-12 accuracy measurement, 36-37, 60 background checks, 171 difficulties with, 2, 150, 216 federal policies, 62 n.4 graphology, 169 inferences from detection of deception, 23-24, 28 n.8, 216 interviews, 173, 177 n.3 pilot studies, 132 purposes, 23, 62 n.3 techniques, 23, 25, 71 INDEX Probable-lie tests, 255, 256 Propanolol, 138 Psychological set theory, 74-75, 77 Psychological testing and measurement, 95-96, 103 n.8 Psychometric methods and theory, 96 Psychopathic personalities, 136 Psychophysiological responses alternative technologies, 80 computer voice stress analyzer compared, 168 conditioned response theory, 73,287 conflict theory, 72-73 controversies, 13 correlation among, 82 "emergency reaction" hypothesis, 82 empirical limitations of research, 80, 81-83, 92 "fight-or-flight" reaction, 82 gender differences, 137 inter- and intra-individual differences in, 70, 79-80, 82, 93, 134-135, 287, 288 in nondeceptive states, 32 psychological set and related theories, 74-75 relative importance of, 37, 51 test conditions and, 17, 28 n.5, 31, 42 theoretical basis, 13, 32, 67, 71-83, 287 unresolved theoretical issues, 32, 79-81, 98 "white-coat hypertension" phenomenon, 17 PsycInfo, 324 Publication bias, 149 Pygmalion effect, 89 Q Qualitative assessment of polygraph testing, 304, 305.
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From page 393... ...
curves computerized scoring and, 316 and decision thresholds, 43-45, 46, 49, 62-63 nn.7&9 estimation from equivariance binormal model, 180, 342-344 and false positive rates, 180, 316 maximum likelihood estimation, 344 parallel combined tests, 368 screening criteria for systematic review and, 325, 340 trapezoidal estiamte, 344, 350 Reid (modified general questions) test, 255, 304, 311, 316, 318 Relevant/irrelevant technique accuracy, 89, 132, 254 contextual factors, 87 countermeasures, 153 n.6 inferences from, 104 n.9 nature and sequence of questions, 70-71, 254, 268, 284, 305 physiological responses, 83, 93 pretest interview, 77 principle, 14 probable-lie, 256 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 scoring, 318 theoretical bases, 72, 73, 77, 78, 93, 103 nn.3&5 uses, 23-24, 70-71 validity relative to other techniques, 253 Reliability defined, 2, 29, 30 internal consistency, 30, 33 inter-rater, 30, 33, 96, 298, 304, 341 test-retest, 29-30, 33, 62 nn.l&2, 87 and validity, 195, 209 Reproducibility of results, 253
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From page 394... ...
See also Computerized scoring systems averaging multiple examiners, 330 blind, 117, 135, 137 decision thresholds, 40, 47-48, 49 diagnostic model, 40 empirical limitations, 81, 83 examiner interpretation, 1, 13, 14, 52, 253, 255, 256, 283, 298, 302, 320 factor analysis, 100 features used in, 308 generalizability to other examiners, 132 global, impressionistic, 103 n.6, 254 numerical, 255-257, 260, 298, 309 pretest phase and, 320 quality control procedures, 194-195, 209 quantitative assessment of studies, 341 INDEX as rating procedure, 49, 331 reliability, 328 repeatability of, 30 TES, 77 weighting of channels, 103 n.6 Security screening. See also Employee screening polygraph; Preemployment/preclearance screening; U.S.
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From page 395... ...
, 282 accuracy, 34-35, 131-132 research, 110, 131-132 scoring, 77, 256, 262, 303, 318-319, 320 standardization, 62 n.2, 91, 104 n.l4, 311 technique, 15, 256-257, 261-262 theoretical justification, 77 uses, 256, 260 validity, 134 Theories of polygraph examination. see also specific theories and accuracy measurement, 38, 40, 42, 46, 61, 62-63 n.7, 109, 127128, 343-344
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From page 396... ...
See also Test of Espionage and Sabotage Accelerated Access Authorization Program, 265, 269, 272 access authorization, 265, 274 INDEX accuracy of, 6, 34-35, 218 advance notice of, 274 adverse personnel action, 197, 198, 265 confidentiality of records, 276-277 consent requirements, 275 decision threshold, 6, 186 eligibility evaluation, 266 examiner-examinee interactions, 90 Hamre Commission recommendations, 8, 189-190, 220 information provided prior to, 3435, 275-276 in-test phase, 260, 261-262 issues covered, 259 legal representation during, 275 methods and procedures, 197-198, 260 Office of Counterintelligence, 266, 273 Office of Independent Oversight and Performance, 269 Office of Security and Emergency Operations, 269, 274 policy changes for laboratory personnel, 189-190, 192, 218-221 positions requiring, 12, 260, 268269, 270 post-test phase, 260, 262, 282, 284 pretest interview, 34, 260, 261 privacy and employee rights, 274277 reconsideration rights, 274 refusal to take, 271-272 regulations, 12, 260, 264-278 reinvestigation, 260, 270 standards, 277-278 topics within scope of, 270-271 training of examiners, 260, 277-278 type of test, 34, 62 n.2, 256, 260 uses of results, 260, 272-274, 276 waivers, 269 Wen Ho Lee case, 280, 282-283 U.S. National Science Foundation, 2, 108
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From page 397... ...
See also Employee screening polygraph; Preemployment/preclearance screening; Security screening; Specific-incident examinations and accuracy measurement, 22-23, 24, 33-37, 40, 46-47, 48, 60-61, 66, 101 base rate and, 192 cost-benefit tradeoffs in interpretation and, 40, 46-47, 48, 179-194 deception detection, 23 and decision thresholds, 183-187 federal agencies, 187-190, 259, 263264, 267, 272-274 as interrogation procedure, 17, 23 legal context, 67, 98, 103 n.l, 201208, 293-294 limitations on, 12, 66, 260 in personnel decisions, 197, 198, 200 policy recommendations of federal agencies, 187-190 theoretical issues, 77, 80-81, 95, 127128 Utility of polygraph examinations beliefs of examinees and, 6, 19, 22, 52, 54, 56, 61, 176, 199, 214 decision threshold and, 183-187 deterrence, 6-7, 25, 51, 52, 53-54, 58, 61, 112, 176, 186, 187, 225-226, 228-229, 359 eliciting admissions and confessions, 6, 22, 25, 51, 52, 5456, 57, 60, 61, 91, 115, 187, 214215 false confessions and, 28 n.9 for investigative purposes, 22, 25 public confidence in national security, 51, 58, 214 validity and, 22, 51-58, 60-61, 63 n.ll, 111, 201, 214-215 397 V Validity of polygraph examinations. See also Construct validity; Criterion validity accuracy and, 30-33, 61 and admissibility in court, 12, 67, 98, 201-208, 293-294 combined with other information sources, 59, 198-199, 209-210, 371 control questions, 27 n.3, 67 cross-validation of combined screening strategies, 371 defined, 2, 52, 63 n.ll disputes about physiological responses, 13-14, 67-68 evidence of, 3-4, 66, 67-68, 213-215 external, 126-130, 132-133 incremental, 59, 198-199, 209-210 internal, 108, 129, 329, 341-342, 346, 352-353 mystique of lie detection and, 18, 20, 21, 52, 54, 56, 58, 199 pretest interview and, 16 questions for assessing, 222-223 reference points, 58-60 reliability and, 195, 209 review of research.
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From page 398... ...
398 Wonder Woman, 295-296 X X-ray screening in airports, 33 INDEX z Zone comparison test, 255-256, 304, 311, 316, 318
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