Improving Energy Demand Analysis (1984) / Chapter Skim
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5 Behavioral Study of Appliance Efficiency Decisions
5 Behavioral Study of Appliance Efficiency Decisions
Pages 75-85
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From page 75... ...
A large part of the longrun ability of consumers to modify energy consumption patterns is embodied in the energy-using technology they choose and is fixed for the lifetime of that equipment. Two ways of affecting consumer choice, standards for appliance efficiency and incentives for selected technologies, are often considered or used as energy policy tools.
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From page 76... ...
~ ~ ~ Finally, we discuss a few practical data collection efforts that would provide useful incremental information on appliance choice. ISSUES AND LIMITATIONS OF CURRENT ANALYSIS There are a very limited number of major empirical bases for formal modeling of appliance fuel choices, efficiency choices, and decisions about utilization.
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From page 77... ...
However, none of these data sources contains sufficient information on appliance efficiencies to permit direct study of choices about efficiency.) Consequently, attention has concentrated on appliance fuel choices.
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From page 78... ...
In short, existing empirical studies of appliance technology and fuel choice have important limitations, and there are virtually no studies of choices of appliance , ~ efficiency. This state of knowledge is partly due to lack ot data and partly to weaknesses of theory.
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From page 79... ...
Future refinements of such models might include: representation of efficiency alternatives in terms of the brands and models actually available to consumers; direct measurement of purchase prices; representation of efficiencies as rated by manufacturers; field testing of realized efficiencies; measurement of attributes other than purchase price and efficiency; data collection on the degree of discounting by distributors from list prices, particularly in new construction; and measurement of the "perceived value" of equipment alternatives in new construction by hedonic regression. 2 Analytic Representation of Energy Price Expectations In considering energy price expectations, two major questions stand out: How are future energy prices, as anticipated by consumers, to be estimated?
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From page 80... ...
The possibility of feedback from anticipated operating cost to utilization to choice of technology poses a fundamental problem for the life-cycle cost-minimization hypothesis, since it implies that consumers may trade initial costs against the benefits of greater future utilization: for example, by buying an energy-efficient air conditioner, a household may be able to afford to keep cool more of the time. Assessing this possibility requires study of the joint choice of technology and utilization, with a theory of choice that allows trade-offs and with survey data that encompass both purchases and subsequent appliance use.
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From page 81... ...
However, they are not well suited to developing general purpose quantitative policy simulations. THE IDEAL DATA FOR BEHAVIORAL STUDY OF APPLIANCE CHOICES A comprehensive behavioral study of choices affecting appliance efficiency would concurrently examine the
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From page 82... ...
S Bureau of Labor Statistics routinely collects data on appliance transaction prices and uses hedonic regression techniques to relate price to equipment attributes.
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From page 83... ...
Consequently, policy modeling should be a continuing process of scientific attack, invalidation, and improvement of interim simulation tools. With specific reference to the problem of analyzing appliance efficiency standards, an initial goal might be to carry out the data collection and analysis necessary to describe efficiency choice at the level of empirical precision that has already been achieved for fuel choice, while at the same time developing the experiments and behavioral knowledge necessary to refine the descriptions of both fuel choice and efficiency choice.
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From page 84... ...
of data on the transaction prices of appliances and encouraged BLS to refine and publish hedonic regressions accounting for housing prices as a function of building attributes. The DOE should also review its use of large-scale policysimulation models, adopt an ongoing program of upgrading and evaluation, and redirect policy analysis of appliance choice toward using specialized experiments and surveys as much as possible.
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From page 85... ...
as in a manner similar to Consumer Reports bench studies or EPA fuel efficiency measurements for automobiles; some utilities are now collecting such data with the cooperation of manufacturers, using appliance serial numbers. By cooperating with the private sector, DOE may be able to improve its own capacity to forecast the quantitative effects of energy policies on appliance efficiencies.
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