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4. Trends in Youth Qualifications and Enlistment Standards
Pages 70-96

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From page 70...
... and a high school diploma. Other qualifications include good physical health and moral character (e.g., no criminal record)
From page 71...
... The primary purpose of this chapter is to examine trends in the supply of qualified youth in relation to enlistment standards and to assess whether gaps exist now or might exist in the future. The chapter begins with a summary of current military enlistment standards, the rationale for those standards, and the possibility of future changes in requirements that would increase or decrease these standards.
From page 72...
... The enlistment standards reviewed here include education, aptitudes, physical or medical attributes, moral character, and certain demographic characteristics. Our primary focus is on DoD-wide standards; Servicespecific standards are discussed as appropriate.
From page 73...
... . Each branch of Service may set enlistment standards above these minimums, and in fact each Service has a separate set of aptitude requirements for each major type of job in that Service.
From page 74...
... The average 24-month attrition rate for high school diploma graduates is about 23 percent, compared with 44 percent for non-high school graduates. It is important to note that attrition rates are nearly as high for GED graduates (the largest number of high school equivalency certificates)
From page 75...
... Since the cost-performance model did not establish 60 percent Category I-IIIA as an absolute minimum, it is possible that, in the face of a shortfall problem, a modest increase in Category IIIB recruits in place of Category IIIA (with high school diplomas) would not appreciably lower military job performance.
From page 76...
... TRENDS IN APPLICANT AND RECRUIT QUALIFICATIONS One way to evaluate the role of enlistment standards in recruiting shortages is to consider historical trends in recruiting success with respect to the major standards. Historical trends can be examined for pools of applicants as well as for cohorts actually enlisting each year.
From page 77...
... Since 1995 the rate of high school diploma accessions began dropping, and in 1999 and 2000 it finally fell below 90 percent for the first time in many years. Interestingly, the Services have made up the gap in nondiploma graduates by recruiting mostly persons holding GEDs and other high school equivalency credentials rather than recruiting nongraduates, even though their attrition profiles
From page 78...
... In 1999 both the Army and the Navy fell to 88 percent high school graduates, while the Marine Corps and the Air Force recruited 95 and 98 percent high school graduates, respectively. This downward trend in the accession of high school diploma graduates is especially noteworthy given the population trends in high school graduation and dropout rates.
From page 79...
... The Army had the 4The sharp increase in the percentage of Category IV accessions in 1981 followed by a sharp drop was due to an ASVAB misnorming problem and subsequent recruiting changes in the aftermath. The misnorming problem was a technical test scoring error such that persons classified as Category IIIB were, in actuality, Category IV.
From page 80...
... A highly qualified youth is a young person in Category IIIIA who also has a high school diploma. After reaching all-time lows in 1980 because of the ASVAB misnorming problem, the percent of highly qualified applicants and accessions reached historic highs of 61 and 75 percent, respectively, in 1992.
From page 81...
... Education and aptitude trends for gender and racial subgroups can be summarized using the percentage of highly qualified applicants and accessions. Figure 4-7 shows the percentage of highly qualified applicants and accessions by gender.
From page 82...
... Both black and Hispanic groups show lower rates of highly qualified youth than whites, with Hispanics showing higher rates than blacks. Figure 4-8b shows about the same patterns for accessions, but the rate of highly qualified white accessions has remained fairly constant while the rates of highly qualified black and Hispanic accessions has dropped off, particularly Hispanics.
From page 83...
... 100 80 60 40 20 O- l l l l 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year 1994 1996 1998 2000 ~ -- - whiteaccessions black accessions Hispanic accessions FIGURE 4-8b Highly qualified accessions by race/ethnicity. SOURCE: Data from Defense Manpower Data Center (2001~.
From page 84...
... For example, waivers have to be issued for such medical conditions as obesity and respiratory problems and for such moral conditions as drug abuse or felonies. Figure 4-9 summarizes total DoD waivers given for moral character, physical problems, and a variety of other conditions grouped into "other." The three most important categories of "other" waivers are dependents, education levels, and aptitude requirements (such as low scores on ASVAB tests for specific job areas)
From page 85...
... TRENDS IN YOUTH QUALIFICATIONS The historical trends for military manpower characteristics reveal declining rates of high-quality applicants and accessions, and recent data show that accession cohorts are slightly below Defense Guidance targets for education, approaching the minimum targets for aptitude levels. While the potential shortages of highly qualified recruits have not yet reached crisis proportions, military performance could be adversely effected if these trends were to continue to worsen in the future.
From page 86...
... The most significant change has occurred for black youth, whose graduation rates rose dramatically from about 65 percent in 1972 to over 85 percent by 1995. Since 1995, graduation rates for black students have remained very close to white rates.
From page 87...
... . Hispanic youth, however, who had very low graduation rates even in 2000.
From page 88...
... All three age groups show upward trends in math scores starting in 1982. Age 17 students experienced a slight decline of about 5 points in math between 1973 and 1982, but then they show a steady increase up to 1992.
From page 89...
... SOURCE: Data from National Assessment of Educational Progress. Finally, the science achievement trends shown in Figure 4-14 are similar to math scores in that after 1982 all age groups have rising science scores.
From page 90...
... For the purpose of projecting future levels in aptitudes and skills for the youth population, the age 9 grades scores are most important since they will become the 18-year-olds of the future. The cohorts of age 9 students between 1992 and 1999 will become the age 18 cohorts between the years 2000 and 2007, so it is especially important to consider those scores.
From page 91...
... During times of recruit shortages, there is a tendency to enlist black youth at a higher rate than their proportionate share of the population, thereby making it harder to maintain the social representation goals of the DoD.
From page 92...
... If any future AFQT renorming occurs due to rising aptitudes, DoD should also consider readjusting its recruiting goals in light of the renormed test so that it does not inadvertently increase aptitude targets. Physical and Moral Attributes Population data are more limited with regard to some of the enlistment standards that involve physical and moral attributes.
From page 93...
... . The youth population data for medical problems present a somewhat different picture, in that the rates for two common medical problems that require waivers are increasing.
From page 94...
... 94 ATTITUDES, APTITUDES, AND ASPIRATIONS OF AMERICAN YOUTH 50 40~ 308 2010O 1979 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 Year | -- - violent crime property crime | FIGURE 4-17 Trends in arrest rates for persons under 18.
From page 95...
... In spite of this decline, the rate of highly qualified youth recruited for the enlisted force continues to be above DoD targets, even in the most difficult recruiting year of 1999. However, if the downward trend continues, there could be shortfalls of recruits with high school diplomas or with higher aptitudes or both over the next 20 years.
From page 96...
... Since the supply of highly qualified youth has not declined, but there has been a decline in highly qualified personnel applying for and enlisting in the military, it is quite possible that these declines reflect lower propensity for military service rather than shortages of supply in the youth population. This possibility is examined extensively in subsequent chapters.


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