Personal Cars and China (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Case Study: Shanghai, China
Appendix B: Case Study: Shanghai, China
Pages 223-256
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From page 223... ...
or $1,415 at the official exchange rate (RMB8.28 = U.S.$1~. Other estimates measured as "purchasing power parity" or "gross city product" are three times or more greater (see State Statistical Bureau, 1998~.
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The magnitude of the increase in vehicle use is not certain, however. Even apart from WTO membership, vehicle ownership and use and their environmental implications will be strongly influenced by three interrelated policy debates: industrial policy toward the automotive industry, air quality policy, and transportation and urban growth policy.
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SHANGHAI: A CITY IN TRANSITION Sixteen million people reside in the 6,340 km2 of Shanghai, located on the eastern coast of China in the Yangtze River Delta. The population density of the central city currently averages 22,700 persons per square kilometer.
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Multicentralization is not a unique phenomenon or goal; it is the de facto or formal planning strategy of most major cities around the world, though Shanghai is pursing this goal more aggressively and deliberately than most. SHANGHAI'S TRANSPORTATION PICTURE Despite rapid economic growth, vehicle ownership remains remarkably low in Shanghai.
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Thus both passenger and freight transport in Shanghai have gradually shifted to more energy-intensive modes (State Statistical Bureau, 1998~. Intracity travel, on the other hand, has relied on modes of travel that consume very little energy.
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5 Official sources from 1998 indicate 10,000 privately owned vehicles (see Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute, 1998; Rao, 1999~. Informally, city officials indicate the number is closer to 20,000.
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About two-fifths of that motorized travel is by car and motorized two-wheelers.8 Although the absolute number of vehicles is still relatively small, traffic congestion and air pollution are becoming severe. By 1993 transportation accounted for most of Shanghai's urban air pollution, contributing an estimated 90 percent of carbon monoxide, 92 percent of volatile organic gases, and 23 percent of nitrogen oxide (NOX)
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To limit air pollution and traffic congestion, city officials began capping the registration of all new cars and trucks in 1998 at 50,000 annually (Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute, 1998~. The government also limits ownership of motorized two-wheelers.
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Transport Infrastructure: Plans and Investments Shanghai has responded to pressure on the urban transport system with massive infrastructure investments. From 1991 to 1998 about 14.6 percent of the GCP was devoted to construction and a significant percentage of that for transportation, a much higher rate than is typical for developing country megacities; the surface area of paved roads increased by 62 percent (Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute, 1997c, 1998~.~° In 1993 Shanghai spent three times more money on urban construction and maintenance than any other Chinese city, about half on roads, bridges, and mass transit (Ministry of Construction, 1994~.~ From 1991 to 1996 Shanghai spent approximately RMB83 billion ($10 billion)
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Fuel prices are similar to those in the United States, i2 Information on the second transport plan come from Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute (1997b) , a report prepared for the World Bank; Shanghai Metropolitan Highway Network Planning Agency (1998~; and a 1999 interview with Lu Ximing, director of the Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute.
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The extent to which consumer credit will in fact become more available remains uncertain, however, as does the extent to which Chinese consumers will embrace buying on credit. A third deterrent to car ownership is limited road infrastructure and severe traffic congestion.
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The fourth explanation for low private vehicle ownership rates is the relatively low quality of vehicles that have been available for sale. The tariffs on imported cars are aimed at protecting the fledgling domestic automotive industry, giving substantial market power to local producers.
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Given the huge population and rapid income growth, foreign automakers and parts suppliers are expected to enter the Chinese market in an aggressive manner. This intensified competition, along with the increased availability of consumer credit, will be a strong force for increased car ownership.
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The national government recently implemented stringent regulations aimed at limiting air pollution from urban transportation sources. Among the new pollution regulations implemented in China are vehicle emissions standards, mandatory inspection and maintenance programs for vehicles in certain cities, and gasoline quality standards.
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Moreover, any strategy that restrains vehicle use will generate large air quality, GHG emissions, and energy benefits. Some believe that widespread use of alternative fuels such as natural gas may be a leading strategy to help solve China's environmental and energy problems (Weisbord, 1999~.
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The vehicle population is controlled using a monthly auction system for new vehicle registrations. Freight movement by truck in the central city is restricted during the daytime when passenger travel demand is highest.
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On most streets in Shanghai, bicycles and small scooters are separated from the flow of buses and cars with wide bicycle lanes. These lanes are used heavily, improving safety and lessening traffic congestion.
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Restraining Use of Full-size Private Cars To restrain use of full-size private cars, policy makers must focus on car purchases. The fixed costs of using a private car for transport are much higher than the associated variable costs, such as tolls and parking fees.
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The city is also building high-rise apartments and bicycle parking lots near new rail transit stations. The convenience of Shanghai public transit is enhanced with an integrated electronic fare collection system.
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One leapfrog technology gaining considerable attention is fuel cells. Fuel cells provide the promise of very low air pollution and GHG emissions and high energy efficiency.
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Energy use and GHG emissions are far more difficult to reduce. In the most extreme case, fossil energy use and GHG emissions could be almost completely eliminated without changing car ownership levels by substituting nonfossil energy sources.
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Gasoline motor scooter (four-stroke) Gasoline minicar Gasoline car Diesel car Diesel bus Gasoline bus 32.1 44.9 24.7 10.7 15.8 3.3 35.5 49.7 28.5 10.7 15.8 3.3 2.2 2.2 NOTES: The average generating mix for China used in calculating GHG emissions for battery electric vehicles (and rail transit)
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NOTE: CNG= compressed natural gas; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas. 18 million.
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Following this scenario of expanding private sector initiative and lessening government control, it is postulated that investments in alternative fuels founder, immigration accelerates, and investments in large public infrastructure projects slow, especially for rail transit. The car population increases fourfold, which is the mid-range forecast of the Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute.
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The central government pursues its plan to create a strong, technologically sophisticated, domestic automotive industry with large investments from international automakers. The principal target markets are large Chinese cities such as Shanghai.
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The city continues with its multicentralization strategy, and satellite cities are served primarily by express bus and rail transit. Those who own city cars are able to drive them from the satellite cities to central Shanghai on roads built exclusively for small cars, motorcycles, and scooters.
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In this restrained motorization scenario, cars increase their share of travel from 15 to 38 percent between 2000 and 2020; mass transit, motorcycles, and scooters maintain their current share; and walking and bicycling drop considerably (though the absolute amount of travel by walking and bicycling stays roughly constant) (see Figure Bob.
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national and local support of the domestic automotive industry; (2) the effect of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on consumer credit and vehicle availability and prices; (3)
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To the extent that Shanghai can restrain motorization and its adverse effects by adopting such recommendations, as in the low motorization scenario, it could serve as a model for other cities in the developing world. However, if vehicle use, energy consumption, and greenhouse gases skyrocket in Shanghai, as in the high motorization scenario, it is a signal that restraint of motorization will be virtually impossible throughout the developing world.
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Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute. Shanghai: East China Polytechnic Publishing House.
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From page 256... ...
In China Urban Transportation for the 21st Century. Beijing: China Construction Publishing House.
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