Estimating the Public Health Benefits of Proposed Air Pollution Regulations (2002) / Chapter Skim
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2 Health Benefits Analyses: EPA Case Studies
2 Health Benefits Analyses: EPA Case Studies
Pages 34-56
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From page 34... ...
, the focus ofthe following discussion is human health benefits. PARTICULATE MATTER AND OZONE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS EPA is required by the Clean Air Act (CAA)
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ammonia (THY. To construct the 2010 inventory, EPA first generated a 1990 emissions inventory using source-specific emissions factors and activity levels, such as fuel consumedby electric utilities or mires traveledby motor vehicles.
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For the full-attainment scenario, a proportional and a quadratic rollback procedure were used to estimate PM and ozone air quality, respectively.2 2Rollback procedures scale an exposure estimate by the changes modeled for the emissions estimates. Therefore, proportional rollback assumes that concentra
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From page 37... ...
was used to monetize the mortality benefits. For the low-end estimate, an effects threshold of 15 ~g/m3 was assumed for all PM2 5-relatecl health outcomes, no mortality benefits were estimated for reductions in ozone concentration, no ancillary PM benefits were included in the ozone benefits analysis, and an approach based on the value of a statistical life year (VSLY)
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38 Cat Cat Ct ¢ C)
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40 o to Al s~.~.~-^~ =~ ~ ~ _ .
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TIER 2 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS STANDARDS AND GASOLINE SULFUR CONTROL REQUIREMENTS The Tier 2 Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards and Gasoline Sulfur Control Requirements Rule (Tier 2 rule) sets new federal motor-vehicle emissions standards and establishes limits on sulfur concentrations in gasoline (EPA 1999a)
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3,600-5,700 Congestive heart failure 1,200-2,100 Ischemic heart disease 1,200-2,400 Acute bronchitis 12,000-20,000 Lower respiratory symptoms Upper respiratory symptoms Work-loss days Minor restricted-activity days 1,800-75,100 11,700- 19,400 42-72 30-35 30-49 179,000-299,000 2-4 36,000-60,000 1 1,900,000 3,148,000 15,697,000 26,128,000 156-261 600-1,000 80 ($400)
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EPA used the VSL approach to monetize the premature mortality estimates. The uncertainty in the analysis was evaluated by identifying key assumptions and presenting alternative calculations.
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EPA also conducted several sensitivity analyses; one analysis evaluated various assumptions regarding lag structure for mortality benefits, and another evaluated various assumptions regarding thresholds. EPA also included supplemental calculations for various health outcomes, such as premature mortality resulting from short- term PM or ozone exposure and infant mortality resulting from PM exposure.
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10 and over) Hospital admissions Respiratory causes Cardiovascular causes Emergency-room visits for asthma Minor restricted-activity days and acute respiratory symptoms Decreased worker productivity (adult working population)
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. However, for the benefits analysis of the HD engine and diesel-fuel rule, EPA did not include the modeling results for the western United States because of poor model performance in that region (the model significantly underestimated observed concentrations)
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Similar to the Tier 2 analysis, CAPMS was used to estimate health benefits on the basis of differences in ambient air concentrations in the baseline and control scenarios for 2030 and concentration-response functions derived from epidemiological studies. However, there were a few differences in health outcomes evaluated and concentration-response functions selected between the Tier 2 analysis and HD engine and dieselfuel analysis.
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threshold assumptions. Supplemental calculations were also presented for several health outcomes, such as premature mortality resulting from short-term PM or ozone exposure and infant mortality resulting from PM exposure.
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<5 7-14) Upper respiratory symptoms (children with asthma, ages 9- 11)
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; hospital admissions (respiratory and cardiovascular illness) ; emergency room visits for asthma; lower and upper respiratory symptoms; shortness of breath; minor restricted-activity days and respiratory symptoms; work-loss days CO - hospital admissions (respiratory and cardiovascular illness)
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Provided alternative calculations for key assumptions; 3. Conducted sensitivity analyses Study populations Majority of benefits estimated for adult populations.
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The emissions estimates were then used to model or calculate changes in ambient air concentrations of ozone, PM, SO2, NOX, and CO. Ozone concentrations were modeled using UAM-V for the eastern and the western United States and UAM-IV for three metropolitan areas (Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix)
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National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Proposed Regional Haze Rule.
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130 NO2, S02, Ozone Total cardiovascular illness PM, CO, 42,000 (10,000-100,000) 390 NO2, S02, Ozone Emergency room visits for asthma Acute bronchitis Upper respiratory symptoms Lower respiratory symptoms PM PM PM Respiratory illness NO2 Moderate or worse asthmas PM Asthma attacksb PM, Ozone 4,800 (430-14,000)
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From page 56... ...
l 999a. Regulatory Impact Analysis Control of Air Pollution fromNew Motor Vehicles: Tier 2 Motor Vehicle Emissions Standards and Gasoline Sulfur Control Requirements.
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