Preparing for the Revolution Information Technology and the Future of the Research University (2002) / Chapter Skim
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2. Technology Futures
2. Technology Futures
Pages 13-20
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From page 13... ...
Billions of people worldwide are suddenly oble to afford basically the same access that we in this room typically en joy.' Stuart Felclman, Workshop on the Impact of Information Technology on the Future of the Research University, January 22-23, 2001 Washington, D.C. (programs.
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From page 14... ...
But individuals, as well as social institutions like the university, cannot rapidly change their behaviors. The fact that we are approaching a time in which communication and access to a great clear of the woric3's information will be possible in an instant and at near-zero cost floes not necessarily mean that education, or other sorts of "knowledge work," will have changed at the same rate While information technology cloes hold out the promise of enabling advances in the eclucational, research, ant!
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From page 15... ...
at an exponential rate, with some technologies moving forward even faster (Wulf, 19951. For example, disk areal density—the number of bits per square inch that can be put on a disk has been doubling every 12 months in recent years and is expected to continue at that rate over the near future.6 In recent years, information technology has been most clramatically driven not by the continuing increase in computing TECHNOLOGY FUTURES
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From page 16... ...
by Moore's Law will drive increases of 100 to 1,000 in computing speed, storage capacity, and bandwidth every decade. At that pace, today's $1,000-notebook computer will, by the year 2020, have a computing speed of 1 million gigahertz, a memory of thousands of terabytes, and linkages to networks at data transmission speeds of gigabits per second.
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From page 17... ...
Thin, readable, and flexible electronic books, for example, are considered "in-the-bag" technology for broad commercialization over the next few years, as are "computers on a wristwatch" and "knowledge in your pocket." For example, the Apple iPod already has a 20 gigabyte drive the size of a quarter. All the while, we are moving beyond the simple text interactions of electronic mail and electronic conferencing to graphical user interfaces (e.g., the Mac or Windows)
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From page 18... ...
On the global level, the Internet already connects hundreds of millions of people with one another, and estimates are that by the end of the decade this number could grow into the billions a substantial fraction of the woricl's population.9 Such growth is expected to continue despite, or perhaps as a result of, the recent rude awakenings of e-business investors to the realities of the marketplace. More uncertain than the technological trajectory is the status of the business environment, which will greatly influence when advancecl capabilities reach the marketplace.
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From page 19... ...
We will denominate the number of computer servers in the billions, digital sensors in the tens of billions, and software agents in the trillions. In effect, we will evolve from "e-commerce," "e-government," and "e-learning" to just about "e-everything" as cligital crevices increasingly become the primary interfaces not only with our environment but with other people.
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