Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information A Workshop Summary (2003) / Chapter Skim
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2. Case Studies
2. Case Studies
Pages 5-38
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From page 5... ...
Flooding began in the southern part of the basin in March, and following a brief hiatus during a freeze, proceeded northward. Grand Forks, North Dakota, and East Grand Forks, Minnesota, which had experienced a major flood in 1979 with a river crest of 48.8 feet, prepared for the flood by raising dikes, seeking to survive a possible crest of 52 feet.
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From page 6... ...
Fortunately no deaths were attributed to the flood in the Grand Forks area. By February 1997 the National Weather Service (NWS)
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From page 7... ...
The North Central River Forecast Center and the Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office issued narrative and numerical outlooks periodically from February 14 to March 28, 1997, for the entire river basin. Deterministic operational hydrology forecasts for the Grand Forks area were made twice a day after April 14, 1997.
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For example, records indicate that earlier floods at East Grand Forks had a 10-percent error (5 feet for the 1997 flood)
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Responsibilities between officials in Grand Forks and the forecast offices were unclear. While Grand Forks officials wanted a single number for the predicted crest, a single number was simply not justified by the state of the science.
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Several actions have been taken since the disaster in order to avoid a repeat of this experience (Anderson 2001~: . The North Central River Forecast Office and the Grand Forks Weather Forecast Office implemented new products under the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AMPS)
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EAST COAST WINTER STORM MARCH 2001 Description In March 2001 a major winter storm brought precipitation along the East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states to the Northeast. Heavy snow (primarily inland and in New England)
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From page 12... ...
SOURCE: National Weather Service.
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Communication of information was shared among NWS through the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (NCEP/HPC) , NOAA, weather forecast offices (WFOs)
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From page 14... ...
SOURCE: National Weather Service. major storm off the East Coast of the United States 7 days in advance of actual cyclogenesis.
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From page 15... ...
SOURCE: National Weather Service. Other local and national media soon became aware of other deterministic forecasts being made 4 to 5 days in advance of the potential storm and came under increasingly competitive pressure to make some deterministic forecasts even though the timing was well in advance of what most agree is the current state of the science.
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From page 16... ...
A NOAA press conference on Saturday, March 3, attended by high-level NOAA/NWS officials, continued to highlight the historic aspect of the coming storm. WFOs in the midAtlantic area were still issuing only winter storm watches; winter storm warnings were issued for the Sunday-Monday period for metropolitan areas from Philadelphia northward.
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When? Initial outlook graphic products, based primarily on the MRF and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
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With what effect? Correct general synoptic scale information of East Coast cyclogenesis was generated 7 days in advance and mesoscale and regional models and forecasts were of varying accuracy 12 tol8 hours before actual development.
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By March 1, a number of forecasters were indicating increasing confidence in the possibility of a major East Coast storm. By the afternoon of March 2, the medium- and short-range models (MRF, ETA,4 AVN)
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From page 20... ...
Uncertainty was not adequately discussed with the public in statements, forecasts, press releases, press conferences, and media presentations. · Significant competitive pressures exist for broadcast meteorologists and weathercasters, and this contributes to deterministic forecasts and statements being made by these information providers.
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To date, over 1,000 Television and 150 Radio Seals of Approval have been awarded. The stated goal of the program is to ensure that meteorologists who hold the Seal of Approval exhibit scientific competence and effective communication skills in their weather forecasts.
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The presentations included information on how to identify tornadoes; how all involved parties (the public, the NWS, ham radio operators, police forces, television and radio stations) should prepare for tornadoes; and how government agencies and television and radio stations should coordinate their efforts.
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During the event, the NWS, television stations and cable outlets, radio stations, NOAA weather radio, ham radio operators, severe-weather spotters, and the Highway Patrol, local police, and fire departments played important roles in saving the lives of people in the paths of the tornadoes. Said what?
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Said what? After the event, the NWS, the media, insurance representatives, and emergency service organizations played prominent roles in helping tornado victims and in documenting the storm damage.
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From page 25... ...
The combined efforts of the ham radio network, live broadcasts by the network television stations received directly and via cable, rebroadcasts of the audio portion of television reports on cable and several radio stations, and law enforcement personnel helped to minimize loss of lives. The competition of the media in the Oklahoma City area led to outstanding coverage of the tornadoes.
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From page 26... ...
The efforts of the NWS Forecast Office in Norman; the Oklahoma Department of Public Safety; KFOR, Channel 4; KOCO, Channel 5; KWTV, Channel 9; the Southwest Independent Repeater Association; and the Oklahoma Climatological Survey were recognized with a special award from the American Meteorological Society at its annual meeting in 2001 "for outstanding and well-coordinated actions before, during and after the historic 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak in central Oklahoma, which prevented untold deaths and minimized the impact of the devastating storms" (AMS 2001~. Some newspaper articles concerning the event unfortunately perpetuated some myths about the nature of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.
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From page 27... ...
In 1997-1998, ENSO-based weather predictions and predictions of impacts received major media coverage. Public awareness of climate variability and of its predictability was increased, and there was considerable scientific agreement that the predictions based on the 1997-1998 ENS O were a success.
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From page 28... ...
28 COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTIES IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION Weaker uncerta~ndes loom qua Wane El Nine winter could mean marls Boric planting Devalue of E! Nino forecasts gets mixed reviews · Scientists seek We~rc hearing plenty of hype ~ wh~~sphe her such ~arch.
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From page 29... ...
unusual winter storms in the High Plains in early fall and severe winter weather in Canada and New England in January, (5) few winter storms, above normal temperatures, and little snow over most of the northern United States, (6)
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The media coverage created high penetration into the public consciousness of climate variability and of potential for greater skill in seasonal to interannual forecasting. The success of the forecasts improved climate forecast credibility.
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Follow-up Improvements · The entire weather community has worked to improve coordination of forecast releases. · The National Weather Service has vetted a Web site for information and graphics to accompany forecasts.
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There is an opportunity for forecasters to improve communication of probabilistic information to decision makers. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE AN ANALYSIS OF SOME KEY QUESTIONS JUNE 2001 Description The importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases as a potential mechanism for causing future climate change has been a topic of scientific investigation, political debate, and media discussion for several decades.
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communicated the findings of a special study on climate change science. The NAS committee that conducted the study was composed of 11 members chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance (and with minimal involvement in the IPCC Third Assessment report)
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At 4:00 P.M. on Wednesday, June 6, the NAS posted a final draft of the report on its Web site and the NAS media officer issued a press release.
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A key aspect of communicating the report's findings was the active involvement of an NAS media officer with the committee throughout the entire process. The media officer issued a press release, and in the following weeks, NAS personnel and committee members briefed the White House, Administration officials, Congress, and the media.
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A particular recommendation from prior reports that received favorable attention, in addition to the urgent need for advanced computer resources, was the need for a National Climate Service, analogous to the National Weather Service. Lessons Learned .
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Most of the media reports acknowledged the uncertainties highlighted in the report, and they were clearly highlighted by the White House. However, the focus was the Academy telling President Bush how certain the NAS was about global temperatures rising, greenhouse gas emissions contributing to this, and future impacts.
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