Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information A Workshop Summary (2003) / Chapter Skim
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1. Background
1. Background
Pages 1-4
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Traditional weather forecasting uses numerical models and statistical techniques to project likely future scenarios, and these techniques have some level of definable errors. Newer forecasting techniques use more sophisticated ensemble methods that provide a more quantitative measure of uncertainty under certain conditions.
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The cases presented are as follows: Red River of the North Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997 (presented by Lee Anderson, Susan Avery, and Roger Pielke, Jr.~. This major, record-breaking flood, its forecasts, and the public response illustrate the need for complete information, including a well-defined understanding of uncertainties by the emergency management community.
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. This discussion summarizes a report produced by the National Research Council at the request of the White House that attempted to provide the administration with answers to questions of climate science related to greenhouse gases and global warming.
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4 COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTIES IN WEATHER AND CLIMATE INFORMATION The presenters provided an initial assessment of these factors that were modified by the ensuing discussion at the workshop. The workshop participants then looked across all the cases for unifying themes, and the final chapter looks at common features of the cases.
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