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2. The Restoration Plan's Adaptive Management Strategy
Pages 19-42

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From page 19...
... The following discussion of the strategy includes quotations from project documents that used the "adaptive assessment" terminology. It also provides a brief comparison of "active adaptive management" to "passive adaptive management" or "adaptive assessment" to clarify the type of adaptive strategy that the Restoration Plan will attempt to use.
From page 20...
... The extent to which the Restoration Plan will meet the restoration goals - and expectations rests in large part on a well-designed framework for creating and supporting these four elements. After a brief comparison of active and passive adaptive management, the Restoration Plan adaptive assessment strategy is examined from these perspectives.
From page 21...
... A major challenge faced by the Adaptive Assessment Team as it continues to design the MAP will be to maximize the information derived from this type of passive-adaptive approach that builds incrementally on one initial model. It is important to establish experimental controls wherever possible.
From page 22...
... What "restoration" of the Greater Everglades ecosystem consists of is not entirely clear, which makes it difficult for scientists to establish explicit restoration targets and measures. That in turn makes it difficult to develop an effective monitoring and assessment plan and to apply adaptive management.
From page 23...
... to what it supposedly 'was' where it 'was', but attempt to restore critical functions and structures" (Holling et al., ~ 994~. In establishing restoration targets, the Central and South Florida Restudy Alternative Evaluation Team (AET)
From page 24...
... By producing a long list of specific targets, RECOVER has attempted to provide both specificity and accountability to the broader restoration goals and also to prominently identify criteria that are meaningful to various stakeholders and the public at large. Restoration Plan A. _ scientists recognize that many of the specific targets, which have been set using historical evidence, conceptual models, and dynamic hydrologic and ecological simulation models, are little more than "best guesses" at where, when and how populations and communities will respond to restored hydrologic conditions (Restudy AET, 1998~.
From page 25...
... . To date restoration planning has been driven by sophisticated hydrologic and ecological models dedicated to describing the internal dynamics of the Everglades ecosystem, either original or remnant.
From page 26...
... RESTORATION REFERENCE STATE "Baseline information provides the benchmark against which the progress of the restoration plan can be measured, and to understand the ranges of natural variability necessary to cony when change has actually occurred. While some regions of the Everglades ecosystem have well-established monitoring programs, other areas have little or no baseline data.
From page 27...
... Despite considerable progress there is a great need for continued research to better conceptualize and describe the reference state, research that goes well beyond performance monitoring. This is not to say that the Restoration Plan should not proceed without a better-defined conceptualization of the restoration reference state, but only to point out that the adaptive assessment strategy should include monitoring in support of improved "baseline" data and model outputs as well as hypothesis-driven research to validate the underlying cause-effect relationships identified in the MAP conceptual models.
From page 28...
... Despite recommendations from social scientists for alternative approaches (e.g., Hardball et al., 1999) , this view has also pervaded the reference state conceptualization of the Everglades Ecosystem as represented in both simulation models and conceptual models that have been used to set targets and choose performance measures.
From page 29...
... For example, how might changes in the size and distribution of human Populations in south Florida affect restoration? To what extent can science and modeling examine the alternative restoration scenarios proposed in the Environmental and Economic Equity Program Management Plan?
From page 30...
... As integrated assessment models, the simulation models have the potential to help in interpreting ecosystem responses to the south Florida restoration projects and guide adaptive management. Such assessment will be especially valuable if they focus on dynamics across time and space scales and conceptual integration of physical, chemical, and biological processes.
From page 31...
... It seems likely that such information will include the lesson that a successful restoration of the Greater Everglades ecosystem however "success" is defined will need to include consideration of the larger context of regional environmental and societal factors as well as careful management of structures and biota within the ecosystem itself. MONITORIN G IN SIJ£PORT OF ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT The ultimate goal of restoration monitoring is to provide the information necessary to answer specific management objectives.
From page 32...
... Hydrologic Performance Measures The basic premise common to the wide variety of published restoration goals is that water management to mimic pre-drainage hydrologic conditions can provide sustainability of the human system and improvement in the ecological "health" of the natural system. This hypothesis led to development of the South Florida Water Management Model and Natural System Model used to design the Restoration Plan.
From page 33...
... However, their use in future applications, such as refinement of the Restoration Plan's design and adaptive assessment, would benefit from some adaptations. One limitation of the current hydrologic performance measures derives from the fact that their use in designing the Restoration Plan is a very different exercise than their use in adaptive assessment.
From page 34...
... ECOLOGICAL PERFORMANCE MEASURES Conceptual Models for the Restoration Plan Conceptual models of each of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem's nine major physiographic regions in south Florida (e.g., ridge and slough, marl prairies) are the basis of the Restoration Plan ecological monitoring program.
From page 35...
... Assessment of Conceptual Models and Ecological Performance Measures Given the incomplete characterization of pre-drainage conditions of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, the Adaptive Assessment Team has no alternative but to develop a monitoring plan based on indicators that will provide an assessment of the current status of the ecosystem. As the Restoration Plan is implemented, this reference condition will be used to assess the trajectories of populations (e.g., organisms of special concern including threatened, endangered, and invasive species)
From page 36...
... While the conceptual models are useful tools for identification of ecological performance measures, these models do not provide insight into the temporal or spatial sensitivity of the measure's response to altered hydroperiod. How can data on performance measures and the associated variation be used in combination with mechanistic models to insure that performance measures are monitored at appropriate temporal and spatial scales?
From page 37...
... Indicators of populations and ecosystem functioning sensitive to the restoration efforts need to be identified. Based on the workshop discussions, it is clear that the Adaptive Assessment Team recognizes the importance of selecting meaningful ecological indicators of populations, communities, and ecosystem functioning.
From page 38...
... EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH AND MODELING Experimentation must be a critical component of monitoring and assessment to improve understanding of cause-effect relationships. Thus, experimentation is needed for adaptive assessment to be an effective management tool.
From page 39...
... Another important linkage, which does not seem well developed thus far in the Everglades would be between the adaptive assessment process and citizen advisory groups. This linkage has been developed in other restoration efforts such as the Glen Canyon Dam project (NRC 1996b)
From page 40...
... Thus different timeseries of hydrologic attributes resulting from different water-mana~ement policy simulations ~ ~ ~ ~ , ~ can be converted to time-series of habitat suitability function values, each of which can then be combined and averaged in various ways to provide quantitative indications of the relative ecological impacts of alternative water-management policies. SCIENTIFIC FEEDBACK TO GUIDE AND REFINE IMPLEMENTATION OF TED RESTORATION PLAN The usefulness of an adaptive assessment program in improving the potential for the Restoration Plan to meet its hydrologic and ecological restoration goals depends on the opportunities available to modify design or operational features of components as understanding of drivers and system responses improves through monitoring, experimentation, and modeling.
From page 41...
... However, this strategy would offer no options to control flow between the areas if it is later determined that such flow has undesirable consequences such as transfer of excess nutrients into a nutrient-poor region. As part of an overall evaluation of the likely success of the monitoring and adaptive assessment program in the Restoration Plan, it would be useful to conduct a preliminary, but systematic, inventory of opportunities for flexibility in design and operational features of the Restoration Plan components.
From page 42...
... lids IS especially d~thcult given multiple time lags between implementation of a restoration project and ecosystem responses at different spatial and temporal scales. Just as flexibility of Restoration Plan design and operation is crucial to adaptive assessment management of the Everglades, societal flexibility and acceptance of scientific uncertainty are essential to the adaptive assessment mix so that modifications of policy that require changes to ecosystem drivers to achieve restoration goals and objectives are understood and accepted.


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