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Cities Transformed Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: United Nations Estimates and Projections
Pages 495-498

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From page 495...
... in Appendix B Here we first discuss the extrapolation method as it was presented by the United Nations (1974: 29)
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From page 496...
... Note also that whereas the United Nations estimates of urban population are based only on country-specific census data, the projections of urban population use both country-specific and cross-country data, with the latter including developed as well as developing countries. The United Nations method for estimating and projecting the population of individual cities is, in broad outline, little more than an application of the URGD method to different data.
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From page 497...
... cities. At the time of the study, however, there were relatively few very large cities in developing countries, and the United Nations concluded that the relationship between city size and growth rates was predominantly negative.
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From page 498...
... Finally, additional adjustments are made in cases of negative estimated or projected city growth rates; in the final adjusted estimates and projections, such negative growth rates are generally replaced by zero growth rates (or so it appears, to judge from the United Nations, 1998b: 36~. The result of all this is a complicated algorithm whose success in estimating and projecting city populations is far from being assured.
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Key Terms

  • urban population
  • city growth
  • nations estimates
  • projected urban
  • nations method

  • urban total
  • population projections
  • city population
  • total urban
  • rate difference

  • negative relationship
  • national census
  • urban populations
  • city projection
  • subsequent step

  • supporting evidence
  • projected city
  • rural populations
  • urbanization approach
  • nations concluded

  • revised version
  • predominantly negative
  • weak predictor
  • dependent variable
  • zero growth

  • reasonable bounds
  • largest city
  • city projections
  • projected urbanization
  • method emerges


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