Cities Transformed Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World (2003) / Chapter Skim
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3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch
3. Urban Population Change: A Sketch
Pages 75-107
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From page 75... ...
The processes of globalization are surely as old as human history, but recent years have seen unprecedented developments in the speed, scale, scope, and complexity of change. In its modern forms, globalization is characterized by a rapid evolution of the international division of labor, increased trade and foreign direct investment (FDI)
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From page 76... ...
We give a brief summary, describing in broad strokes the scale of recent urban change, with particular attention to the emergence of large cities in the developing world, the pace of change, and the main differences in urban experience by demographic regime and level of national income. Having sketched this background, we then return to the regional context and explore the similarities and differences among the transitions of African, Asian, and Latin American countries.
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From page 77... ...
In what follows, we touch briefly on several of the important developments in the globalization of cities. Financial Services and Foreign Direct Investment In the realm of finance, it appears probable that today's powerful centers New York, London, and Tokyo will continue to dominate the world markets.
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From page 78... ...
It incorporates Fujian and Guangdong provinces on the mainland with Hong Kong and Taiwan, establishing a web of relations in which emigrant networks are much involved. Figure 3-1 depicts several other regional networks, which differ in maturity and depth of integration (Yeung,2000~.
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From page 80... ...
Because cities are the gateways between national and international markets and because they are often the sites of inefficient firms dating to the importsubstitution era, city populations can be exposed more openly than rural populations to the risks of market engagement. Perhaps the greatest volatility and potential for contagion is seen in world markets in stocks, bonds, and currencies (World Bank, 2002a)
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From page 81... ...
The scale of change the absolute numbers of people involved is clearly unprecedented, as are the typical rates of growth of total urban populations. It is less certain that the demographic components of growth differ much from historical experience.
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From page 82... ...
It is also important to maintain a distinction between the growth of the total urban population and that of individual city populations. Total urban growth can be distributed across individual cities, and thus across a range of city sizes, in many different ways.
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From page 83... ...
In these countries, urban growth rates have ranged over time from spectacular to merely alarming levels. The period from 1950 to 1975 saw rates of urban growth of 3.7 percent across the developing world; had these rates persisted to 2000, the total urban population would have grown to six times what it was in 1950, with consequences that can only be imagined.
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From page 84... ...
Large Cities Increases in total urban populations can have different spatial manifestations; in theory, a rapid increase in the total might be accommodated by the very rapid replication of small cities. But perhaps it is not surprising that urban growth has generally been expressed in the number and average size of large cities.
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From page 85... ...
Cities such as Mumbai (formerly Bombay) , Mexico City, and Rio de Janeiro were still relatively small, each having about 2.9 million residents.
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From page 86... ...
86 CITIES TRANSFORMED TABLE 3-3 Urban Agglomerations with 5 Million People or More, 1950-2015 Region 1950 1970 2000 2015 High-income countries Europe Paris Paris Paris Paris Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr Rhein-Ruhr London London London London Milan North America New York New York New York New York Los Angeles Los Angeles Los Angeles Chicago Chicago Chicago Toronto Asia Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Osaka Osaka Osaka Hong Kong Hong Kong Middle- and low-income countries Asia Shanghai Africa Latin America Buenos Aires and the Caribbean Europe Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Bangalore Delhi Hyderabad Madras Wuhan Jakarta Teheran Istanbul Bangkok Metro Manila Karachi Lahore Dhaka Cairo Cairo Lagos Kinshasa Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Moscow Moscow Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Lima Santiago Bogota Moscow Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Seoul Bombay Calcutta Bangalore Delhi Hyderabad Madras Wuhan Jakarta Teheran Istanbul Bangkok Metro Manila Karachi Lahore Dhaka Kabul Chongqing Shenyang Pune Chittagong Riya& Baghdad Jidda Hanoi Ho Chi Minh Ahmedabad Surat Yangon Bandung Cairo Lagos Kinshasa Addis Ababa Luanda Abidjan Buenos Aires Rio de Janeiro Sao Paulo Mexico City Lima Santiago Bogota Guatemala City Belo Horizonte Moscow SOURCE: United Nations (2002a)
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From page 87... ...
This is not generally the case in high-income countries, whose urban populations tend to be more spatially dispersed. Some 17 Latin American countries have 15 percent or more of their national populations in their largest city, and in 8 of these, that city houses more than one-quarter of the national population.
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From page 88... ...
The point that large cities tend to grow more slowly is often lost in accounts that stress the growth of the total urban population in the largest of the city size classes. As the United Nations (1980)
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From page 89... ...
Western historical populations seldom saw growth that rapid their rates were usually on the order of 1 percent and below (Livi Bacci, 1997~. High rates of national population growth are transmitted to urban growth, with the connection being direct in the case of urban natural increase and indirect, through migration, for rural increase.
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From page 90... ...
permit an examination of trends in migration shares for some countries. In Latin America, the region in this sample best covered by censuses, there has been a slight shift downward in the share of urban growth due to migration.
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From page 91... ...
In Latin America, the region exhibiting the highest migration rates, the data series indicate that a decline in migration began in the 1980s, this being, perhaps, yet another reflection of the economic crises of that decade. 5Bocquier and Traore (1998)
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From page 92... ...
The Rate of Urbanization Does the current rate of urbanization differ from historical experience? To pursue this question, we assembled data on urbanization levels by decade for 7 of today's high-income countries in the period 1875 to 1925, and compared their rates of urbanization with those of 17 low- and middle-income countries in the 19502000 period.6 Different starting points and urban definitions render comparisons of urbanization levels problematic, but we believe useful comparisons of the rate of urbanization are nonetheless possible.
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From page 93... ...
Viewed in this way, moderate rates of urban population growth might be taken as emblems of success. In some parts of the world, however, and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, cities have been growing without a concomitant expansion of economic activity.
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From page 94... ...
Because urban fertility rates are lower than rural rates, and cityward migration occurs disproportionately among the young, urban age structures are even more concentrated in the productive (and reproductive) ages than are those of national populations.
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From page 95... ...
By 2030, some 55 percent of Africa's population and 53 percent of Asia's population are expected to be found in urban areas. The continents are also quite different in terms of total population sizeAsia is much the largest so that there are almost twice as many urban residents in Asia as in Latin America and Africa combined.
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From page 96... ...
All of this growth is expected to be absorbed by its cities; indeed, the total rural population of Latin America is expected to decline slightly as the total urban population rises by more than 200 million. The year 2030 will likely see four of every five Latin Americans living in cities, in many cases substantially increasing the demand for already overburdened public services.
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From page 97... ...
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From page 98... ...
Urban growth slowed in Latin America in the early 1980s as the region entered a period of major social and economic upheaval and fell into a prolonged economic recession. Many Latin American countries were forced to implement stabilization and adjustment policies designed to restore their economies by reducing the size of the public sector and improving efficiency in their labor markets.
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From page 99... ...
By 2000, some 37 percent of the region's population lived in urban areas, compared with 38 percent of Asia's population and 75 percent of Latin America's. In absolute terms, Africa's urban population grew from 32 million in 1950 to 102 million in 1975 and 295 million in 2000 (United Nations, 2002a)
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From page 100... ...
According to these projections, African society will cross the 50 percent urban threshold sometime before 2025, reaching 53 percent urban by 2030. It is expected that a large fraction of the Africa urban population will continue to reside in small towns and cities, and urban development planning for such communities should probably be given high priority.
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From page 101... ...
City growth was fueled by high levels of both national population growth and spatial mobility. The availability of large numbers of jobs in a newly formed public sector and better access to health and education services, together with an urban bias in the terms of trade between primary products and manufactured goods, combined to make urban life attractive.
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From page 102... ...
Despite its relatively low level of urbanization (37.5 percent in 2000) , Asia contains 1.38 billion urban residents, nearly half of the world's urban population (United Nations, 2002a)
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From page 104... ...
The result has been phenomenal economic growth for these zones and a massive increase in export-led foreign exchange earnings for China as a whole (Yeung and Hu,1992~. In Shenzhen, for example, which was chosen as one of the four initial SEZs because of its close proximity to Hong Kong, the value of industrial output in 1987 was almost 70 times its 1980 value, implying an annual rate of growth of 60 percent per annum (Won", Cal, and Chen, 1992; Young and Chu, 1998~.
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From page 105... ...
Between 1987 and 1994, marriage rates in the newly independent states fell by 25-50 percent, divorce rates in some newly independent states rose by 25 percent, birth rates declined by 20-40 percent, and male life expectancy fell by about 6 years (Cornia and Paniccia, 1999; Becker and Hemley, 1998~. Death rates among middle-aged male adults rose dramatically as the result of a large increase in cardiovascular disease and other preventable diseases, such as tuberculosis, bronchitis, pneumonia, and dysentery, as well as accidents, injuries, and violence (Becker and Bloom, 19984.
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From page 106... ...
Conventional demographic approaches reveal that when compared with the historical precedents, recent urban transitions differ sharply in some aspects but differ rather little in others. As the analysis in this chapter has shown, rates of urban population growth are high relative to the historical standard, although it appears that rates of urbanization are not.
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From page 107... ...
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE 107 Nations strongly confirm earlier estimates, which attributed some 60 percent of urban growth to urban natural increase, with the balance left to migration and reclassification. Policy makers do not appear to have fully understood the contribution of urban natural increase.
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