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Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation Better Measurement and Test Design for the Interim Brigade Combat Team with Stryker Vehicles: Phase I Report (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix B: Force Exchange Ratio, Historical Win Probability, and Winning with Decisive Force
Pages 105-108

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From page 105...
... The historical data, contained in the CAA Data Base of Battles (1991 version, CDB91) is from a wide range of battle types durations ranging from hours to weeks, dates ranging from the 1600s to the late 20th century, and forces involving a variety of nationalities.
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From page 106...
... National Military Strategy (NMS) codified a new military success objective: "Apply decisive force to win swiftly and minimize casualties." The NMS also implied that decisive force will be used to minimize risks associated with regional conflicts.
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From page 107...
... Objectives are to conduct a defense to prevent the aggressor from capturing critical ports and airfields in Saudi Arabia and to then conduct a counteroffensive to regain lost territory and restore national boundaries. The FER-coalition casualty relationship shown in the figure is based on simulation results, in which the FER is the ratio of the percentage of enemy losses to the percentage of coalition losses.
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From page 108...
... _ to o .~ o ~ ._ to Pr (win) = .505 IMPROVED OPERATIONAL TESTING AND EVALUATION Aggressor achieves military objectives Coalition objectives achieved, casualties high 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 .846 .937 .968 .981 Force Exchange Ratio FIGURE B-3 Force exchange ratio and decisive warfighting capability.
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Key Terms

  • exchange ratio
  • decisive force
  • regional conflicts
  • historical relationship
  • warfighting capability

  • army analysis
  • force strengths
  • variable called
  • battle types
  • coalition objectives

  • aggressor achieves
  • objectives achieved
  • durations ranging
  • defender victory
  • desert storm

  • useful measure
  • military success
  • friendly coalition
  • historical measure
  • types durations

  • evaluation aggressor
  • improved operational
  • critical ports
  • conflicts involving
  • coalition forces

  • minimize casualties
  • minimize risks
  • national boundaries
  • operation desert
  • military strategy


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