Preventing Earthquake Disasters: The Grand Challenge in Earthquake Engineering A Research Agenda for the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) (2003) / Chapter Skim
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5. Achieving the Grand Challenge: A Research Plan for NEES
5. Achieving the Grand Challenge: A Research Plan for NEES
Pages 102-123
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the following: · Lower-cost but higher-resolution techniques for the identification of earthquake hazards, · New construction materials and design techniques (e.g., performance-based seismic design) for earthquake-tolerant facilities, · Lower-cost techniques and materials for retrofitting existing facilities that have unacceptably high seismic risk, · Automated tools for the injury prediction and emergency response needs of an affected community following an earthquake, · Validation of models for loss-estimation for insurance, land planning, and emergency response needs, and · Demonstration tools to better communicate earthquake risk and 102
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The knowledge gained from these interdisciplinary efforts can underpin an entirely new generation of analytical and predictive tools for improving building and lifeline performance, loss estimation, emergency preparedness and response, and risk assessment and management. These new tools will support the two types of investments in earthquake hazard mitigation that are needed to prevent disasters.
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From page 104... ...
This research will be in critical areas such as foundation systems, structural and nonstructural building components and systems, and site treatment approaches. Research conducted through NEES should foster ancillary breakthrough technologies such as new imaging tools and siteand condition-assessment tools that can be used rapidly and economically to identify and evaluate site hazards or to reveal hidden flaws in structural components.
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All of these efforts will require multidisciplinary collaboration between the scientists and engineers who will develop and test new theories on earthquakes, earthquake damage, and its mitigation and the social and political scientists who will use the science and technology that come from NEES to develop better risk assessment tools, loss estimation models, and communication and teaching strategies to help enact and implement more enlightened policies on earthquake loss mitigation. The remainder of this chapter describes the committee's stakeholder involvement process, research needs within the seven topical areas, the expected benefits of research in these areas, and a business plan that integrates the needs, interests, and abilities of government, academia, and industry.
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Challenge Predicting the level and variability of strong ground motion from future earthquakes requires a combination of improved observations and large-scale simulation; simply extrapolating attenuation relations to larger magnitude earthquakes will not suffice.
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· Based on seismic observations, develop stochastic descriptions of the crustal heterogeneity in order to model ground motion at frequencies of greatest engineering interest. · Develop measures of ground motion intensity that better predict the damage potential of strong ground motions.
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to define research needs, so that the NEES program can best support NOAA's mission, bearing in mind that NOAA is responsible for the nation's tsunami warning system. Medium-Term Goals · Verify and validate the numerical models used for defining inundation limits for design and planning purposes in tsunami-prone areasfor example, the West Coast of the United States (including Alaska)
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Although great strides have been made in the past two decades to improve predictive capabilities and seismic engineering design practices, there remains an urgent need for improved modeling procedures and predictive tools, more powerful sitecharacterization techniques, and more quantitative guidelines for soilimprovement measures. Challenge Improved modeling procedures and predictive tools are needed along with more powerful site-characterization techniques and more anantitative guidelines for soil-improvement measures.
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· Improve geotechnical modeling procedures, both physical and numerical, and develop parameters that can be used for performancebased seismic engineering analyses. · Validate methods for strengthening waste containment facilities, reinforcing slopes, and identifying potentially hazardous landslide areas.
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Challenge There is a need to predict and improve the performance of existing buildings without seismic resistance, retrofitted buildings, and newly built structures when they are subjected to the extreme loads imposed by earthquakes. Short-Term Goals · Develop analytical models that can predict the seismic performance of existing buildings.
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Lifelines are typically more vulnerable than conventional facilities to earthquake hazards, because there is less opportunity to avoid these hazards through prudent site selection or site improvement. Although much has been done since the San Fernando earthquake of 1971 to increase our understanding of lifeline vulnerability to earthquake hazards, to improve the engineering and construction of new or replacement facilities, and to retrofit existing facilities, much remains to be done, especially in seismic areas of the United States outside California.
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are totally unaware of their potential exposure to a damaging earthquake or, if aware, of how devastating the consequences could be. Risk assessment and its widespread dissemination are a vital component of earthquake disaster prevention.
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· Develop improved cost models for existing and new seismically resistant buildings and lifelines. · Develop advanced loss estimation models exploiting NEES capabilities.
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Public Policy Unless NEES research results are adopted into public law, local ordinance, or building, fire, and zoning codes, earthquake disaster reduction efforts are unlikely to progress fast enough to truly prevent disasters. One of the major measures of NEES's long-term success will be the retention of earthquake hazard mitigation as a public and governmental priority.
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· Provide information to support programs requiring structural reinforcement or replacement of all public buildings that have excessive risks of earthquake damage. EXPECTED BENEFITS OF THE NEES RESEARCH PLAN Seismology NEES research in engineering seismology will result in more accurate and reliable knowledge of earthquake ground motion in seismic regions.
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Lifelines Because it has much in common with the preceding issues, NEES research into lifeline behavior will build on the work done in engineering seismology, geotechnical engineering, and buildings and structures. For example, high-reaction testing frames could be used in the bending test of pipe to calibrate finite element models; liquefaction studies would be applicable to lifelines as well as foundations; and shake-table studies could test many systems and components at full and reduced scales.
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Simulation models based on NEES research on analyzing losses from scenario earthquakes and policy options for mitigating them will help legislators assess the effectiveness and benefits of proposed policies. Success in this area will facilitate more rapid and widespread implementation of proactive seismic mitigation policy.
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· To increase cost-effectiveness and promote collaboration, there should be an effort to involve other large laboratories and laboratory equipment other than that at NEES equipment sites. · NEES needs an intellectual environment celebrating and recogniz
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The development and funding of a NEES research program provides the opportunity to identify and address significant goals that will reduce the consequences of earthquakes for the nation's citizens. A Stakeholder-Inclusive Process for Guiding NEES Research It is essential that the talents of the earthquake community be used both for the continuing evolution of these program topics and for prioritizing them.
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, with an NSF grant, recently released a 20-year research and technology transfer plan for earthquake engineering (EERI, 2003~. The plan, Securing Society Against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses, identifies basic and applied research that can substantially reduce losses from earthquakes and also help protect the built environment from the devastating effects of disasters caused by wind, flood, fire, and terrorist bombings.
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Although there may be some expectation that the foundational information technologies are similar to the fixed investments of the NEES equipment sites, they are not the same. Once NEESgrid, the initial system integration project, is complete in 2004, a substantial foundation will be in place, but many problem-specific applications and capabilities will still need to be developed.
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The EERI research plan recommends funding in the amount of $325 million for fiscal years FY2004 through FY2008. This amount is for the entire earthquake program and includes earthquake prediction, engineering research, technology transfer, and education.
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