Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation A System in Peril (2003) / Chapter Skim
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3. System Modeling and Simulation
3. System Modeling and Simulation
Pages 19-26
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From page 19... ...
As a general rule, the suite includes very detailed, high-fidelity, data-intensive, long-run-time models, usually involving individual components of the overall system, as well as higher-level, fast-time, abstract analytic models that, at the highest level, seek to represent how the entire U.S. air transportation system functions and how that functioning impacts the economic vitality of the nation.
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From page 20... ...
ANALYSIS AND DESIGN TO IMPROVE AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM PERFORMANCE Improving the performance of the air transportation system requires a good understanding of the operation of the current system and the ability to model and analyze the performance of new operational concepts. The air transportation system, however, is a complex, human-centered system that involves multiple technologies, organizational structures, human behaviors, and competing economic entities.
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In the evolutionary approach, we modify existing operational concepts and technologies and then evaluate the extent to which the changes accommodate future demand using fasttime network flow models. The approach used to analyze human behavior differs as
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22 in an ~ Q O (.)
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From page 23... ...
In the revolutionary approach, performance parameters and human roles are allocated to satisfy top-down functional requirements. Progressively more detailed simulations using human performance models can then be used to determine feasibility; ultimately, human-in-the-loop simulations can verify predictions, but their development requires detailed design of interfaces and operating procedures as well as the training of personnel on the revolutionized operational concept, operating procedures, and new technologies.
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SYSTEM MODELS AND AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM SAFETY Safety analysis of air traffic management operational concepts has traditionally been based on chain-of-event models, but other approaches based on systems theory have recently been proposed. When safety is characterized by a chain of events, it may be analyzed using hazard analyses, in which the events leading to each hazard are identified (e.g., fault tree analysis or failure modes and effects criticality analysis)
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From page 25... ...
CONCLUSIONS Given existing modeling and simulation capabilities and the state of ongoing research, the actions defined in the following recommendations would provide the long-term systems modeling capability needed to design and analyze evolutionary and revolutionary operational concepts and other changes to the air transportation system. Recommendation 3-1.
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From page 26... ...
Hybrid-system simulation for national airspace system safety analysis. Journal of Aircraft 38(5)
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